Green Room

Marist poll in Ohio has D+9 sample

posted at 10:23 am on November 3, 2012 by

I’d spend a half-hour analyzing the latest NBC/WSJ poll conducted by Marist in Ohio shown Obama with a 6-point lead over Romney, 51/45, but all you need to know is this: the D/R/I is 38/29/32.  In 2008, the exit polls showed a split of 39/31/30, and in 2010 36/37/28.

I’ll stipulate that if Republican turnout in Ohio is lower as a percentage of the electorate than in 2008, then Obama’s going to win the state.  But consider that even the similarly-skewed Quinnipiac poll conducted for CBS/NYT showed Republican enthusiasm outstripping Democratic enthusiasm by fourteen points:

This poll isn’t worth spending any more time analyzing.

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