Green Room

Marist poll in Ohio has D+9 sample

posted at 10:23 am on November 3, 2012 by

I’d spend a half-hour analyzing the latest NBC/WSJ poll conducted by Marist in Ohio shown Obama with a 6-point lead over Romney, 51/45, but all you need to know is this: the D/R/I is 38/29/32.  In 2008, the exit polls showed a split of 39/31/30, and in 2010 36/37/28.

I’ll stipulate that if Republican turnout in Ohio is lower as a percentage of the electorate than in 2008, then Obama’s going to win the state.  But consider that even the similarly-skewed Quinnipiac poll conducted for CBS/NYT showed Republican enthusiasm outstripping Democratic enthusiasm by fourteen points:

This poll isn’t worth spending any more time analyzing.

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Agreed. That sample is about all you need to know about that clown poll.

It would not surprise me if the WSJ does not poll with NBC and Marist after this election. They have to be embarrassed.

WannabeAnglican on November 3, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Graveyards demand to be whistled at.

-Marist

Kataklysmic on November 3, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Vote as if your country depends upon it. It does.

txmomof6 on November 3, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Thank you, Ed. I didn’t even need to see the sample to know NBC was wasting everyone’s time. Well aside from the MSDNC crew who need their talking points.

This poll was released for one reason. To depress GOP turnout. I’m optimistic that this won’t happen given the kind of crowd Romney attracted last night.

Doughboy on November 3, 2012 at 10:31 AM

What’s next… clap your hands if you believe in faeries?

CPT. Charles on November 3, 2012 at 10:32 AM

@ppppolls: Just started our final Ohio poll and the first respondent picked Romney #PANIC

Haha!

mrscullen on November 3, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Okay, this is just getting stupid.

Is Marist really going to have us believe that they even got D+9 using random dials, much less after implementing a likely voter screen?

I’ll defend pollsters more than most, but this is getting ridiculous. Marist, you are putting your profession’s credibility at risk…

JohnGalt23 on November 3, 2012 at 10:34 AM

THE ENTIRE 2012 ELECTION, POLLING 11 BATTLEGROUND STATES, NBC MARIST HAS HAD ROMNEY AHEAD IN JUST ONE POLL (I think it was North Carolina after the debates.)

CHUCK TODD SHOULD BE ASHAMED OF HIMSELF!!!

pamplonajack on November 3, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Vote as if your country depends upon it. It does.

txmomof6 on November 3, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Wish I was from a state where voting for President actually meant something.

dirtseller on November 3, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Can someone weigh this poll at something like D+1 (which will probably be the best democrats can hope for) and tell us what the poll would say if it were honest?

Capitalist Infidel on November 3, 2012 at 10:38 AM

NBC-Mar(x)ist Polls: Worthless

Norwegian on November 3, 2012 at 10:40 AM

This poll isn’t worth spending any more time analyzing.

On the other hand, GumbyPokey has just printed out the results and is heading to his … er … bunk.

PackerBronco on November 3, 2012 at 10:40 AM

This is the poll G&P was whining about in the main thread, right? He claimed it was D+2. What a hopeless hack.

JeffWeimer on November 3, 2012 at 10:43 AM

These pollsters better be praying the Obama ekes out a win, then they can claim to have been “right” with their fake polls.

Otherwise many people are going to lose careers, as they should.

forest on November 3, 2012 at 10:46 AM

JeffWeimer on November 3, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Nevermind. That was the Florida thread. :facepalm:

JeffWeimer on November 3, 2012 at 10:55 AM

And the irony is…they’re just telling Pookie to stay on the couch!

Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha.

Rational Thought on November 3, 2012 at 10:56 AM

What the heck is the pioint of these skewed polls? Do they think they are fooling people?

tbrickert on November 3, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Two points in the poll that do not pass the smell test.

1. Registered voters

Thinking about November’s presidential election, do you plan to vote early or by absentee, vote on Election Day, or have you not decided?

Voted/Plan to vote early 35%
Voting on Election Day 59%
Have not decided 6%

So 94% of the registered voters plan to vote?
(In 2008 67.8% turnout in Ohio, 2004 – 67.9%, 2000 – 57.8%)

2.It has enthusiasm tied between Dems and Repubs.

Animal60 on November 3, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Can someone weigh this poll at something like D+1 (which will probably be the best democrats can hope for) and tell us what the poll would say if it were honest?

Capitalist Infidel on November 3, 2012 at 10:38 AM

I re-weighted this to D+1 with D/R/I of 37/36/28 (the 2010 numbers with the D and R switched). All numbers are dependent on round-off error from the given data, so they may vary. I also assumed all voters identified as a certain party that are not committed to the party’s candidate will cross over. We all know that is not true as libertarians are perfectly content throwing away their votes on Gary Johnson and helping Obama. I digress.

The results: Romney-49.86 Obama-48.9

If we assume the non committed in party ID are undecided, and that undecideds break 2:1 for Romney, it’s even better for the good guys: Romney-50.32 Obama 48.44

tommytom02 on November 3, 2012 at 11:02 AM

What the heck is the pioint of these skewed polls? Do they think they are fooling people?

tbrickert on November 3, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Journalists seem to be buying it.

forest on November 3, 2012 at 11:16 AM

When a pollster calls my mother–no caller ID–she says, “Romney, Romney, Romney”, and hangs up.

vamoose on November 3, 2012 at 11:17 AM

These polls are meant to influence turnout. They don’t want dems too demoralized so they keep coming out with these feel good polls. Even if it doesn’t affect the presidential outcome it could make the difference in a Senate or House race.

Wigglesworth on November 3, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Polls to ignore: PPP, Marist.

Dextrous on November 3, 2012 at 11:18 AM

What the heck is the pioint of these skewed polls? Do they think they are fooling people?

tbrickert on November 3, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Journalists seem to be buying it.

forest on November 3, 2012 at 11:16 AM

No, they are not buying it, they are desperately attempting to sell it.

SWalker on November 3, 2012 at 11:21 AM

I wonder how ALL these pollsters keep coming up with these ridiculous party id numbers? Just a random sample in Ohio would be something like 37/36/28 give or take a point or two. Do they just grab a phone book of Cuyahoga county and call it a day?

Capitalist Infidel on November 3, 2012 at 11:23 AM

D+9 is legitimate if you factor in all of the ballots filled out with Obama’s auotopen.

86 on November 3, 2012 at 11:24 AM

I would like to coin a new word.

Pollshlt.

It has a real stench to it.

Total Pollshlt.

fogw on November 3, 2012 at 11:25 AM

auotopen = autopen. Dammit.

86 on November 3, 2012 at 11:26 AM

fogw on November 3, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Good idea. I would prefer “pollcrap” which doesn’t use the S word.

Dextrous on November 3, 2012 at 11:28 AM

I’m here in Montgomery County, Ohio (Dayton) and I can tell you for a fact that we R’s have been kicking obama’s rear-end in the gotv campaign. We have registered far more new voters and many dems who voted for Obama are voting Romney this time. Obama won our county by around 3% last time. I can say with some certainty that there will be a 6-7 % swing this time and Romney will win.

Ta111 on November 3, 2012 at 11:31 AM

auotopen = autopen. Dammit.

86 on November 3, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Nah, you got it right the first time. We are talking about Oiho, after all.

ElectricPhase on November 3, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Dextrous,

I’m good with your G rated version.

cheers,

fogw on November 3, 2012 at 11:34 AM

I think it’s obvious that Georgia has now entered the toss-up column. We’re starting to see some real momentum for President Obama. This could be the blue wave the country has been waiting for to set us back on the right course…

lol

DeathtotheSwiss on November 3, 2012 at 11:37 AM

@Ta111: The pundits keep talking about Cuyahoga and Franklin counties being key to this election in Ohio, and they couldn’t be more wrong. I’ve been saying all along that Montgomery, along with coal counties of Belmont, Jefferson, Monroe, Washington, and west to Muskingum, will be key. Karl Rove has finally come around to this notion recently. Cuyahoga county is predictable, but these other counties swing in part because of their economies relative to the national economy. They are all hurting under Obama and I think your 6-7% swing is reasonable, if not conservative. O-bots don’t see it coming.

tommytom02 on November 3, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Nah, you got it right the first time. We are talking about Oiho, after all.

ElectricPhase on November 3, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Where good spelling goes to die. =P

Question for Ed: what do you think Romney’s chances of winning are really when there isn’t even one poll that shows Romney leading in Ohio? It’s one thing to question the integrity of a pollster, but do GOP pundits really think that all 11 of them are lying?

Stoic Patriot on November 3, 2012 at 11:44 AM

Living in an always red state means we get no polling. The only interesting aspect will be by how much Romney wins.

BettyRuth on November 3, 2012 at 11:53 AM

It’s one thing to question the integrity of a pollster, but do GOP pundits really think that all 11 of them are lying?

Stoic Patriot on November 3, 2012 at 11:44 AM

Rasmussen had Romney up in Ohio just the other day- Thursday?

BettyRuth on November 3, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Why is every poll D+4++? Simply more people will to call themselves Democrats than Republicans?

CorporatePiggy on November 3, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Question for Ed: what do you think Romney’s chances of winning are really when there isn’t even one poll that shows Romney leading in Ohio? It’s one thing to question the integrity of a pollster, but do GOP pundits really think that all 11 of them are lying?

Stoic Patriot on November 3, 2012 at 11:44 AM

I’m not Ed, but I’ll answer anyway since I can sit in Barnes and Noble and have power while the morons fool around in NJ.

It’s all about the sample. Anyone who thinks that D+4 or greater is going to happen in any battleground state is fooling themselves. It has nothing to do with the punditry. Just rescale the polls for accurate likely voters and for proper R/D turnout and then you’ll have the proper results.

njrob on November 3, 2012 at 12:07 PM

This poll was released for one reason. To depress GOP turnout. I’m optimistic that this won’t happen given the kind of crowd Romney attracted last night.

Doughboy on November 3, 2012 at 10:31 AM

It ain’t gonna work. People are raring to vote the bum out of the White House.

dogsoldier on November 3, 2012 at 12:09 PM

It’s all about the sample. Anyone who thinks that D+4 or greater is going to happen in any battleground state is fooling themselves. It has nothing to do with the punditry. Just rescale the polls for accurate likely voters and for proper R/D turnout and then you’ll have the proper results.

njrob on November 3, 2012 at 12:07 PM

This is correct. Adjust them for the US electorate AFTER 2010. The dems have had nothing but one crushing humiliating defeat after another.

The empty chair has permanently damaged their brand. Now everyone knows exactly what the socialists are.

dogsoldier on November 3, 2012 at 12:11 PM

Question for Ed: what do you think Romney’s chances of winning are really when there isn’t even one poll that shows Romney leading in Ohio? It’s one thing to question the integrity of a pollster, but do GOP pundits really think that all 11 of them are lying?

Stoic Patriot on November 3, 2012 at 11:44 AM

It’s very unlikely that any of the pollsters themselves are willfully lying. It would be very hard to keep something like that a secret, and there’s just not enough upside.

However, that has very little to do with whether the polls are correct or meaningful. A lot of analysts of all persuasions have noticed that the individual state polls are diverging sharply from the national polls, to an extent that is not accounted for by sample error. Different analysts may have different ideas about why this is so, but one explanation offered by Bob Krum, and others, is that the state polls are mostly using much cruder likely voter screens, which results in them giving results that are closer to what you’d obtain from a survey of registered voters. I have no idea if this is true or not, but you don’t need to believe in a conspiracy to believe there is systematic error in either the state polls, or the national ones.

RINO in Name Only on November 3, 2012 at 12:23 PM

The Incredible Shrinking Republican Party in Ohio! Even though vastly outnumbered by the Democrat Behemoth in the state, they are incredibly enthusiastic. Why just last night, I think the entire party (30,000) showed up at an event in West Chester!
/

TarheelBen on November 3, 2012 at 12:24 PM

What the heck is the pioint of these skewed polls? Do they think they are fooling people?

tbrickert on November 3, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Skewed polls serve three broad ends:

1. Panic the conservatives, make them feel bad, make them feel gloomy, make them feel isolated, and ultimately make them feel bad and stay home and not vote. This is negative campaigning 101.
2. Convince the Democrat base they are winning and get them fired up to vote.
3. Use this as “evidence” that the election was stolen from Obama when he loses to help gin up riots and to delegitimize Romney. Also to support litigation in the event of a very narrow Romney win.

Question for Ed: what do you think Romney’s chances of winning are really when there isn’t even one poll that shows Romney leading in Ohio? It’s one thing to question the integrity of a pollster, but do GOP pundits really think that all 11 of them are lying?

Stoic Patriot on November 3, 2012 at 11:44 AM

Not Ed, but the GOP has been fairly consistently alleging through the election that the polls are ALL way off or lying. If this pollster conspiracy stuff proves to be correct, the pollsters will be relegated to the Democrat propagandist bin along with the MSM. There’s some evidence this could be happening if you look at the 2004 elections and the Walker recall election.

This is a real possibility given the huge disconnect between state and national polls and analysis of the overall picture for the House races. Certainly, the Democrats are behaving like they’re losing. Consider the NYT article ringing the alarm bells over PA yesterday.

If on the other hand this “pollster conspiracy” talk is wrong, a lot of GOP pundits will be badly discredited and there will be questions about whether the Romney campaign propagated this stuff to avoid making needed changes and avoid criticism for strategic blunders.

Doomberg on November 3, 2012 at 1:33 PM

This is the BS that goes in to the RCP averages & leads idiots like Nate Silver to proclaim, “OBAMA IS A 98% LOCK!!!!!!”

When your data is flawed, your outlook is erroneous.

mattshu on November 3, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Once again Ed is using the national exit polls for party ID from ’04 and ’08. The poll is even more laughable if you use the Ohio Party ID’s of D+5 in ’08 and R+5 in ’04

Long Legged MacDaddy on November 3, 2012 at 2:10 PM

Is there anyone on Earth who will be hit harder by a possible Romney win than Silver? One can already imagine him trying to explain where he went wrong, even as his credibility is all shot to hell.

TheDriver on November 3, 2012 at 3:04 PM

This just in: the latest Marist poll will be asking likely voters if they think Romney is somewhat ugly, ugly or very ugly. The follow-up question will be if the person would vote for someone who is ugly or leaning ugly.

The sample will be 67/3/30

The checklist will be essentially complete – having polled on fraud, flip-flopper, tax felon, murderer, anti-worker, anti-woman, anti-Big Bird, pro-binder. Ugly was the only thing left to poll.

Meanwhile, at a rally Obama hoisted aloft a Kleenex covered with his plan for the next 4 years.

in_awe on November 3, 2012 at 3:20 PM

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