Green Room

WaPo: GOP may add to 2010 house gains

posted at 5:46 pm on November 2, 2012 by

This is interesting for reasons other than the long-accepted wisdom that the House won’t change hands in 2012:

The Fix now projects that the 2012 race for the House is likely to be close to a draw, and there is even a fair chance that Republicans will add to their biggest majority in six decades on Tuesday.

Below, The Fix is updating the ratings of 10 House races, with most of them moving in the GOP’s direction.

The GOP won the House with a voter turnout of 35/35/30 in 2010, even up with Democrats. If, as some pollsters continue to insist,, we’ll see a turnout model closer to 2008 with a significant Democratic advantage, there is simply no way that the GOP could hold its current seat level — let alone surpass it. Assuming that the GOP keeps its current majority, we’d be looking at a 2010 midterm model … and a lot of pollsters will have egg on their faces on Wednesday.

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Yet another thing that must be explained away if you believe that Nate Silver and friends are right.

How can the electorate become significantly more Democrat since 2010, but the Republicans suffer no meaningful losses in the house, and may actually end up gaining a handful of seats?

It does not make sense.

strictnein on November 2, 2012 at 5:58 PM

It means the Big Red wave from 2010 is ready to breach the dam of +10D polling samples and destroy it.

portlandon on November 2, 2012 at 5:59 PM

Hopefully that means we can throw some of the Republicans out who are not conservative in 2014…

astonerii on November 2, 2012 at 6:03 PM

The GOP won the House with a voter turnout of 35/35/30 in 2010, even up with Democrats. If, as some pollsters continue to insist,, we’ll see a turnout model closer to 2008 with a significant Democratic advantage, there is simply no way that the GOP could hold its current seat level — let alone surpass it.

BING BING BING – We have a winner!

Norwegian on November 2, 2012 at 6:03 PM

Hopefully that means we can throw some of the Republicans out who are not conservative in 2014…

astonerii on November 2, 2012 at 6:03 PM

Since Norwegian already declared a winner, we have the accompanying chicken surf and turf dinner.

Steve Eggleston on November 2, 2012 at 6:06 PM

Gaining in the House is all fine and well, but we’re already ahead there. What about the Senate?

Mr. Prodigy on November 2, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Gee, if some of those extra Republican House seats are in places like Ohio or Wisconsin, could those same voters just maybe increase the number of votes for Romney?

Or maybe those voters want a GOP Congressman and then vote for Obama so he vetoes everything their Congressman proposes. Uh, methinks not.

Steve Z on November 2, 2012 at 6:12 PM

I think we will pick up 10 more seats just on redistrcting.

karenhasfreedom on November 2, 2012 at 6:21 PM

How can they call the race a “draw” if their assumption is that the GOP will keep or increase the size of its lead?

Shouldn’t a “draw” mean that either side has a 50% chance of taking the majority?

daryl_herbert on November 2, 2012 at 6:24 PM

I think what Karen posted was probably closer to the truth. We hold on to the seats we have and pick up a few due to redistricting. I think we also need to include incumbent advantage that we didn’t have in 2008. Factoring in those two points, we could pick up some seats with a modest increase in independents voting for Republicans or a decrease in Democrats voting down the ticket for Democrats. Either way, it does not guarantee a high republican turnout as a percentage of the election.

ArkyDore on November 2, 2012 at 6:25 PM

Let’s not forget that in 2010 it wasn’t in just the US House where Republicans won big. They also won over 700 seats in statehouses so it goes far down the line and I think more and more people in blue states 2 years later are more and more fed up with the Dooms.

stukinIL4now on November 2, 2012 at 6:25 PM

Gee, if some of those extra Republican House seats are in places like Ohio or Wisconsin, could those same voters just maybe increase the number of votes for Romney?

Or maybe those voters want a GOP Congressman and then vote for Obama so he vetoes everything their Congressman proposes. Uh, methinks not.

Steve Z on November 2, 2012 at 6:12 PM

Don’t know about Ohio, but we managed to concentrate the ‘Rats into 3 safe districts of 8 in Wisconsin.

Steve Eggleston on November 2, 2012 at 6:30 PM

It means the Big Red wave from 2010 is ready to breach the dam of +10D polling samples and destroy it.

portlandon on November 2, 2012 at 5:59 PM

Yes, It does!

dogsoldier on November 2, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Michael Barone final Prediction today:

Romney 315 EV, Obama 223 EV.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/barone-going-out-on-a-limb-romney-wins-handily/article/2512470

mnjg on November 2, 2012 at 6:52 PM

I’m OK with this.

DocinPA on November 2, 2012 at 7:15 PM

2008 was unique because Obama rejected federal matching funds and the limits that went with them. Thus, the money was WAY out of balance in 2008. This affected everything — but especially the turnout effort.

This time the money is close to balanced. People who expect the 2012 turnout to mirror the 2008 one are not thinking.

Pythagoras on November 2, 2012 at 7:38 PM

I’ve been thinking the same thing. These election are not in a cocoon. If the sea level is rising, it lifts all boats. If its falling we’d see a lot of angst on the part of Republicans afraid we’ll lose the House.

hestrold on November 2, 2012 at 8:05 PM

Early voting is done in most states on Saturday. I think by Monday most of the pollsters will know how far off their turnout models were.

crosspatch on November 2, 2012 at 11:05 PM

I’d love to pick up more house members but I really wanna see Harry Read lose his senate Majority.

esnap on November 3, 2012 at 10:06 AM