WaPo: GOP may add to 2010 house gains
posted at 5:46 pm on November 2, 2012 by Ed Morrissey
This is interesting for reasons other than the long-accepted wisdom that the House won’t change hands in 2012:
The Fix now projects that the 2012 race for the House is likely to be close to a draw, and there is even a fair chance that Republicans will add to their biggest majority in six decades on Tuesday.
Below, The Fix is updating the ratings of 10 House races, with most of them moving in the GOP’s direction.
The GOP won the House with a voter turnout of 35/35/30 in 2010, even up with Democrats. If, as some pollsters continue to insist,, we’ll see a turnout model closer to 2008 with a significant Democratic advantage, there is simply no way that the GOP could hold its current seat level — let alone surpass it. Assuming that the GOP keeps its current majority, we’d be looking at a 2010 midterm model … and a lot of pollsters will have egg on their faces on Wednesday.