Green Room

More reason for hope in Pennsylvania

posted at 10:11 am on November 2, 2012 by

If you’re wondering what Team Romney is seeing in PA to warrant a visit from Mitt, here’s a clue:

I’m taking that more as encouragement across the midwest than in Pennsylvania itself. PA is a heavy lift, but if Romney overperforms there, then he’s probably going to overperform in states like OH and WI where victory is more plausible. And per Murphy, at least in some Pennsylvania congressional districts, he appears to be overperforming.

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Tom Smith appears to be heavily out advertising Casey for the senate seat too. A couple months ago that race was supposed to be a walk for Casey and a drag on Romney. Now it looks more like a tossup.

forest on November 2, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Aren’t the absentee ballots heavily favoring Republicans thus far? That doesn’t guarantee anything, but if it’s a sign of what to expect on Election Day, Romney could pull off the upset.

Doughboy on November 2, 2012 at 10:30 AM

*crossing fingers *

cmsinaz on November 2, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Democrat turnout will be the key. Many are just not voting for Obama bin Lyin’. Republicans are turning out in droves. Plus the indies swing heavily towards Romney. Looks to me like 2010, de je vue all over again.

Look out for that Republican WAAAAAAAAVE!!!!!!!!!!!!

WV. Paul on November 2, 2012 at 10:51 AM

PA is a heavy lift, but if Romney overperforms there, then he’s probably going to overperform in states like OH and WI where victory is more plausible.

Here’s why this thinking is wrong: If you assume that PA and OH still have their traditional Cook Partisan Voting Index, then you have to believe that OH will be a couple of points redder than the national polls and therefore you believe that Romney has already won OH.

However, if you believe the OH state polls and are biting your nails, then you have to believe that something has made OH specifically 3+ points bluer than before. The conventional wisdom says that “something” was the auto bailout plus Barry’s Bain Blitz. Okay, fine. But that doesn’t really apply in PA.

Either you believe Romney will win OH, and thus PA isn’t such a reach, or you believe that OH is no longer to the right of PA, and thus PA isn’t such a reach. (Or you believe that the national polls are all wrong and Romney’s not going to win the popular vote. In which case, hi, Mr. Silver, thanks for reading.) I do agree, however, that we have every reason to expect WI to behave normally with respect to PA, since, again, it hasn’t been subjected to BBB.

Fabozz on November 2, 2012 at 10:51 AM

COnsidering that Barack Obama has been underperforming for almost 4 years, perhaps we’ve lowered the level a bit. Perhaps the voters of PA are sick of Philly and Pittsburgh running the state.

bflat879 on November 2, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Either you believe Romney will win OH, and thus PA isn’t such a reach, or you believe that OH is no longer to the right of PA, and thus PA isn’t such a reach. (Or you believe that the national polls are all wrong and Romney’s not going to win the popular vote. In which case, hi, Mr. Silver, thanks for reading.) I do agree, however, that we have every reason to expect WI to behave normally with respect to PA, since, again, it hasn’t been subjected to BBB.

Fabozz on November 2, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Good analysis. I fall into the column of people who are fairly confident that Ohio and Wisconsin are basically “sure things” for Romney, and I would like us to add PA as icing on the cake. Also, the more states we win, the harder it will be for Obama to litigate the election away from us.

Doomberg on November 2, 2012 at 11:18 AM

This guy thinks Romney is gonna lose OH? Oy vey.

That’s how I read this.

lorien1973 on November 2, 2012 at 11:33 AM

I wonder what Murphy thinks of his homestate of MI? Republicans also won big statewide races in 2010, and current state polling have Obama stuck in 46-47%.

Norwegian on November 2, 2012 at 11:44 AM

This election is going to resemble 2010 not 2008. When the smoke clears Mitt will crush the moron formerly known as the One. That’s when the country will see what we have all seen from the beginning.
The moron will start pardon,granting, and shredding like the madman he is. My suggestion to my friends is to invest in companies that produce shredders. But electronic stuff, I don’t know what he will do about.

rik on November 2, 2012 at 12:07 PM

I have tickets to see the Romney’s here in CO tomorrow. I think he’s got this state locked up already and should probably use the time to hit those upper Midwest battleground states instead.

CliffHanger on November 2, 2012 at 12:24 PM

Rasmussen has the race tied. Obama is now up in the poll of polls at hotair. The race is swinging towards Obama in the final days, not Romney.

Ric on November 2, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Fabozz – no need to overthink PA. It comes down to the Philly suburbs, which is where Romney is coming on Sunday. The suburbs have been trending Democratic, but elected 3 Republicans to Congress and backed Pat Toomey and Tom Corbett in 2010. Mitt Romney is the perfect candidate to win back moderate suburban voters who voted for Obama in 2008.

It is a little different from Ohio in that respect. There are large suburban areas in Ohio, but not as large as those around Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. PA’s unemployment is also still above the national average while Ohio’s is down.

PA also has a leaderless Democratic Party right now. Ed Rendell has been practically invisible in this campaign and his organization is gone. The unions are not a political force in PA anymore.

Obama has visited Ohio 35 times since 2009. He has practically lived there and put all his eggs in the Ohio basket. But he has ignored Pennsylvania.

rockmom on November 2, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Also Bill Clinton is now making a hastily arranged appearance in PA on Monday. That doesn’t sound like Team Obama is real confident.

rockmom on November 2, 2012 at 12:33 PM

Obama has visited Ohio 35 times since 2009. He has practically lived there and put all his eggs in the Ohio basket. But he has ignored Pennsylvania.

rockmom on November 2, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Thats because hes never been down in Pa all year. All of the polls have him ahead. There’s no way he’s going to lose there.

Ric on November 2, 2012 at 12:35 PM

Also Bill Clinton is now making a hastily arranged appearance in PA on Monday. That doesn’t sound like Team Obama is real confident.

rockmom on November 2, 2012 at 12:33 PM

“Hastily arranged” is a perfect description for his recent visit to the University of Minnesota as well. I didn’t even see any advertisements for the rally until the day it occurred (and apparently it started at 10 in the morning, so not much time for even the libs to get over there).

Mr. Prodigy on November 2, 2012 at 1:09 PM

Turnout is going to be significantly lower in the Philly inner city, where Obama got about 500,000 votes, due to the hurricane’s aftermath. He won the state in 2008 by just 600,000 votes, total. If the inner city turnout is reduced and the R votes in central and western PA are as enthused as we’re seeing in these polls, along with the indies breaking for Romney, game over.

TXUS on November 2, 2012 at 1:09 PM

I’ll be doing my part and voting Romney. I think he wins PA too!

ManWithNoName on November 2, 2012 at 1:58 PM

“Hastily arranged” is a perfect description for his recent visit to the University of Minnesota as well. I didn’t even see any advertisements for the rally until the day it occurred (and apparently it started at 10 in the morning, so not much time for even the libs to get over there).

Mr. Prodigy on November 2, 2012 at 1:09 PM

They probably weren’t up yet.

ManWithNoName on November 2, 2012 at 1:59 PM

If Obama wins, then this country deserves everything that’ll be coming its way.

BUT: I don’t think he’s gonna win.

Jimmy Carter went into the last weekend of the 1980 campaign convinced from the crowds (size and enthusiasm) that he had won.

senrex on November 2, 2012 at 2:21 PM

“Hastily arranged” is a perfect description for his recent visit to the University of Minnesota as well. I didn’t even see any advertisements for the rally until the day it occurred (and apparently it started at 10 in the morning, so not much time for even the libs to get over there).

Mr. Prodigy on November 2, 2012 at 1:09 PM

They probably weren’t up yet.

ManWithNoName on November 2, 2012 at 1:59 PM

And the venue had 750 seats. SEVEN HUNDRED AND FIFTY!!!!

750 students and faculty, probably 95% leftists?

Obama sent his #1 campaigner to a 750 seat venue?????????

Ineffective and desperate.

fred5678 on November 2, 2012 at 9:02 PM