Green Room

Just looking at the map …

posted at 1:35 pm on November 1, 2012 by

… over at 270 To Win, playing through a couple of scenarios.  If Romney wins Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina, then all he needs to do is win Iowa and Ohio to go over 270 (278, actually) from the current electoral map.   Stephanie Cutter seemed to concede that Team Obama has abandoned North Carolina already, and both Virginia and Florida look gone as well:

If Romney can’t get Ohio or Iowa, then it becomes a little tougher, but not impossible.  Colorado looks ready to flip, and New Hampshire looks promising for Romney, too.  That would make it 271-267 Romney, and we still may see a surprise in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan — although it’s difficult to see Romney winning any of those without carrying Ohio.

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Here’s a plausible 269-269

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bcgT

lorien1973 on November 1, 2012 at 1:40 PM

If Romney wins FL, NC, VA, NH, NV, CO, IA he gets to 273 without winning WI or OH. Not likely, but possible.

Mark1971 on November 1, 2012 at 1:41 PM

If Romney can’t get Ohio or Iowa, then it becomes a little tougher, but not impossible. Colorado looks ready to flip, and New Hampshire looks promising for Romney, too. That would make it 271-267 Romney, and we still may see a surprise in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan — although it’s difficult to see Romney winning any of those without carrying Ohio.

What map are you looking at? If Romney gets CO and NH without IA and OH(and WI) then he only gets 261 to Obama’s 277.

Romney must either get OH or WI + CO + (IA OR NH)… or luck out with MI or PA.

ninjapirate on November 1, 2012 at 1:43 PM

We’ll know early on election night how things are. If early returns in NC make it look closer than we’re guessing it should be now, bad news for Romney. However, if he wins that fairly early, probably means good news elsewhere (VA, FL, and NH will be closer, so I doubt they’ll be called early regardless).

changer1701 on November 1, 2012 at 1:45 PM

If Romney wins FL, NC, VA, NH, NV, CO, IA he gets to 273 without winning WI or OH. Not likely, but possible.

I don’t see NV happening.

ninjapirate on November 1, 2012 at 1:45 PM

If he’s truly withing 2 or 3 points in either PA, MI, or WI, he’s winning Ohio.

MobileVideoEngineer on November 1, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Romney must either get OH or WI + CO + (IA OR NH)… or luck out with MI or PA.

BTW, if Romney get’s OH then he’ll at least get one of CO, NH, or IA to flip too.

ninjapirate on November 1, 2012 at 1:47 PM

Romney = 300!!!!! (Didn’t look at the map; just a feeling. :-)

KS Rex on November 1, 2012 at 1:49 PM

It’s over….if we show up and vote(assuming you haven’t already).

Doughboy on November 1, 2012 at 1:49 PM

lorien1973 on November 1, 2012 at 1:40 PM

Pretty unlikely. Colorado has been polling to the right of Ohio, Iowa, and definitely Nevada, where I fully expect Harry Reid’s machine to grind it out for Obama.

Looking at RCP’s map of tossups, here’s how I’d rank them from most to least likely to go for Romney:

1. North Carolina (206 EVs for Romney)
2. Florida (235)
3. Virginia (248)
4. Colorado (257)
5. New Hampshire (261)
6. Wisconsin (271—tipping point)
7. Ohio (289)
8. Iowa (295)
9. Nevada (301)
10. Pennsylvania (321)
11. Michigan (337)

LukeinNE on November 1, 2012 at 1:50 PM

Pretty unlikely. Colorado has been polling to the right of Ohio, Iowa, and definitely Nevada, where I fully expect Harry Reid’s machine to grind it out for Obama.

Looking at RCP’s map of tossups, here’s how I’d rank them from most to least likely to go for Romney:

1. North Carolina (206 EVs for Romney)
2. Florida (235)
3. Virginia (248)
4. Colorado (257)
5. New Hampshire (261)
6. Wisconsin (271—tipping point)
7. Ohio (289)
8. Iowa (295)
9. Nevada (301)
10. Pennsylvania (321)
11. Michigan (337)

LukeinNE on November 1, 2012 at 1:50 PM

That’s pretty much my take, too, though WI, OH, and IA are pretty interchangeable among those three slots.

changer1701 on November 1, 2012 at 1:57 PM

LukeinNE on November 1, 2012 at 1:50 PM

Per RCP; these are Obama current level of support in the states past the tipping point you indicated:

Ohio 48.9%
Iowa 48.2%
Nevada 50.0%
Pennsylvania 49.4%
Michigan 47.7%

Given all these figures includes ridiculous D+5 or higher turnout polls (pure fiction); I can safely say these figures represents the max level of support Obama will ultimately get.

Combine that with the fact that Obama is buying ad and time in both PA and MI, those states might have to be moved ahead of NV.

That being said, I have not written off NV yet. It has a lot of mormons (Romney will win these by huge margins) and the GOTV efforts have been great. Bussing of volunteers from CA has been a steady stream.

Norwegian on November 1, 2012 at 2:01 PM

That’s pretty much my take, too, though WI, OH, and IA are pretty interchangeable among those three slots.

changer1701 on November 1, 2012 at 1:57 PM

Agreed. Looking at more recent polling, I might be going a little hard on Iowa in particular. Anyway I find it helpful to list states out like that. Conveniently, the top three and four out of the top five are on the east coast, so we should have a good gauge early on of how things are going to go. If NC, FL, and VA haven’t all been called for Romney by 8 CST (60-120 minutes after the polls have closed in all those states), we could be in for a tough night.

LukeinNE on November 1, 2012 at 2:07 PM

LukeinNE on November 1, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Very good analysis based on current data. I still think the pollsters are screwing Ohio with those D+ rediculous samples (and would place it before NH even), but I can’t argue with your analysis. Well done.

Turtle317 on November 1, 2012 at 2:28 PM

New Hampshire looks promising for Romney, too

He will win NH and some of Maine also. Maybe even all of Maine. People there are as angry as they are in NH. Maine flipped mostly red in 2010.

dogsoldier on November 1, 2012 at 2:41 PM

My wife just came from GOP HQ, here in Martisburg WV. A newly registered Republican girlfriend of hers voted yesterday in Hagerstown Md. She told my wife, that it was a 2 hour wait for Republicans to vote. Democrats could walk right up and vote.
A very good sign of the times.

BTW at the HQ in Martisburg. She got to meet Va. Gov. Bob McDonnell. With him was our future Governor Bill Maloney, whom we have both met, and like very much.

WV. Paul on November 1, 2012 at 3:08 PM

Hey, I’m in California and I just mailed in my ballot.

Hoping for the major upset here in CA.

One of those “Nobody saw that coming or could have predicted it” kind of thing.

LOL

Now THAT would be lights out party over for President O.

But think about it. If the majority of CA votes AGAINST prop 30, which is Governor Jerry Brown’s tax hikes on the rich, why wouldn’t they want to vote for Romney, too? Shouldn’t these folks connect the dots?

muckdog on November 1, 2012 at 3:21 PM

(continued)

The problem is that there is a lot of voter disinterest in CA for the Republicans because everyone knows the Democrats run away with elections here year after year. So turn out is low.

It’s even low for Democrats, because they just assume all the stuff they want will pass and that the stuff that they don’t want either won’t pass or will get thrown out in court.

muckdog on November 1, 2012 at 3:23 PM

Low voter turnout for the Dems is to be expected, all across the land. Romney landslide is building steam. Thanks for the disgruntled Dem turnout forcast Muckdog.

WV. Paul on November 1, 2012 at 3:32 PM