Green Room

Iowa Slipping Away from Team Obama?

posted at 11:06 pm on November 1, 2012 by

WaPo’s Jennifer Rubin scores an intriguing exclusive look into internal GOP data in Iowa:

- DEM lead of more than 44 points (16.91 to 60.99%) on 9/28 collapsed to 12.27 points by 10/30, an improvement of nearly +32 net points on the margin by Republicans. Republicans have already turned out 128 percent of our absentee and early voters from four years ago — nine percent more than the Democrats have done. Republicans have cut Democrats’ historic advantage in in-person early voting by 75 percent.

- At this time four years ago, Democrats led in-person early voting 70,484 to 41,927. Not only have Republicans turned out 10,000 more early voters than we did at this time in 2008, but more than 10,000 fewer Democrats have voted – a clear sign of their depressed enthusiasm and failure of their ground game to turn their voters out.

- The Obama campaign is panicking, and you can see it in the way they are turning out their most reliable, most likely voters long before Election Day. They are using their highest propensity voters to pad their absentee and early vote numbers. Incredibly, half of Iowa Democrats who have voted in all four of the last four general elections have been made to request absentee ballots or vote early by the Obama campaign…The upshot is that Republicans have twice as many reliable, high propensity voters available on Election Day.

- An Iowa Republican tells me, “I have seen polling from a third-party group, three congressionals, our state Senate campaigns and state House campaigns — all using different pollsters, and ALL of them have Romney rising, and ALL of them have Romney with a 1 to 2 point lead.

Maybe today’s two-for-three Romney poll performance in the state wasn’t a fluke.  Caution: A lot can change in four days.

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Caution: A lot can change in four days.

About all Obama’s got left is hoping for a Sandy bounce. I wouldn’t be surprised for him to get a point or two for a couple days, but the sight of New Yorkers eating out of dumpsters should end that pretty quickly.

LukeinNE on November 1, 2012 at 11:18 PM

How does “a lot” change in 4 days? From what I can see, other than 2% undecided morons, we’re all pretty attached to our candidate. There SHOULD be all kinds of people dropping Obama like a hot potato due to the Benghazi lies, but it doesn’t seem to be happening. I don’t think the voters have changed their minds, I think the pollsters are getting more creative in their efforts to keep Obama afloat.

BettyRuth on November 1, 2012 at 11:18 PM

The Sandy bounce is already happening, and can clearly be seen in the ABC/Wash Post tracking poll, where Romney is bleeding away Independents.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:28 PM

I don’t think the voters have changed their minds, I think the pollsters are getting more creative in their efforts to keep Obama afloat.

BettyRuth on November 1, 2012 at 11:18 PM

Get out of the bubble. Go to RCP and look at all the recent polls. On the average of polls Obama is up by 2.0. In the national race, Obama has actually inched ahead of Romney and is now ahead. Even Rasmussen has Obama winning independents in Iowa. No way does Obama win with independents and lose the state.

Ric on November 1, 2012 at 11:28 PM

Sorry “Ric”, but I’ll stay right here in my bubble, thank you. RCP is using pre-debate polls as part of their analysis. They also dont analyze any of the internals before throwing them into the mix. Romney is ahead pretty much everywhere he needs to be. End of story.

BettyRuth on November 1, 2012 at 11:44 PM

Get out of the bubble. Go to RCP and look at all the recent polls. On the average of polls Obama is up by 2.0. In the national race, Obama has actually inched ahead of Romney and is now ahead. Even Rasmussen has Obama winning independents in Iowa. No way does Obama win with independents and lose the state.

Ric on November 1, 2012 at 11:28 PM

Ric, get your head out of your a$$. In the most recent Rasmussen it IS as follows:

Ohio: Romney 50%, Obama 48%

Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 49%

New surveying for Monday night finds Romney ahead of the president 50% to 47% in the key swing state of Colorado.

On a national level : The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%.

Face it loser, Obama’s going down. Hard. Accept it.

DevilsPrinciple on November 1, 2012 at 11:47 PM

Rasmussen Iowa: Romney 49, Obama 48

F*ck Obama.

DevilsPrinciple on November 1, 2012 at 11:49 PM

The Sandy bounce is already happening, and can clearly be seen in the ABC/Wash Post tracking poll, where Romney is bleeding away Independents.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:28 PM

lolololol

The Notorious G.O.P on November 1, 2012 at 11:54 PM

Is it just me or does it seem like the further Romney get’s ahead in the polls the thicker the trolls are on Hot Air?

NerwenAldarion on November 2, 2012 at 12:04 AM

Ric, get your head out of your a$$. In the most recent Rasmussen it IS as follows:

Ohio: Romney 50%, Obama 48%

Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 49%

New surveying for Monday night finds Romney ahead of the president 50% to 47% in the key swing state of Colorado.

On a national level : The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%.

Face it loser, Obama’s going down. Hard. Accept it.

Go to 2008 and check out Rasmussen polls numbers and compare them to the actual results. Nationally Rasmussen was right on, however, state polls were a different story. Rasmussen systematically overestimated McCain. Ras is doing the same thing this time.

Ric on November 2, 2012 at 12:06 AM

Is it just me or does it seem like the further Romney get’s ahead in the polls the thicker the trolls are on Hot Air?

NerwenAldarion on November 2, 2012 at 12:04 AM

He’s not ahead in the state polls. Can you prove otherwise?

Ric on November 2, 2012 at 12:07 AM

Sorry “Ric”, but I’ll stay right here in my bubble, thank you. RCP is using pre-debate polls as part of their analysis. They also dont analyze any of the internals before throwing them into the mix. Romney is ahead pretty much everywhere he needs to be. End of story.

BettyRuth on November 1, 2012 at 11:44 PM

RCP doesn’t use old polls. All of the state and national polls are current. As for internals, RCP purposely includes most credible polls so outliers both left and right can be balanced. Ras for example is an outlier. No way is Obama tied in Wis when he is leading independents. +1 Republican isn’t happening either.

Ric on November 2, 2012 at 12:11 AM

Ric on November 2, 2012 at 12:07 AM

Obama is getting demolished among independents. Who was the last candidate to lose independents and win the presidency?

The Count on November 2, 2012 at 12:13 AM

Obama is getting demolished among independents. Who was the last candidate to lose independents and win the presidency?

The Count on November 2, 2012 at 12:13 AM

GWB. Kerry beat him with independents.

Ric on November 2, 2012 at 12:22 AM

GWB. Kerry beat him with independents.

Ric on November 2, 2012 at 12:22 AM

By 2%, not 8%+

MobileVideoEngineer on November 2, 2012 at 12:24 AM

He’s not ahead in the state polls. Can you prove otherwise?

Ric on November 2, 2012 at 12:07 AM

Actually yes. When you manipulate polls to give democrats an unfair advantage, do you honestly expect Romney to be ahead? Even when the polls give Obama a +8 turnout advantage he is still only ahead by one or two points.

Only a complete moron things that the Democratic turnout is going to be the same as it was in 2008.

I know, it sucks to have to read the fine print at the bottom of the polls, especially when it doesn’t look good for your candidate.

NerwenAldarion on November 2, 2012 at 12:28 AM

By 2%, not 8%+

MobileVideoEngineer on November 2, 2012 at 12:24 AM

But he won them by larger margins in battleground states and still lost to Bush because of the Bush’s superior GOTV operation.

Ric on November 2, 2012 at 12:33 AM

Actually yes. When you manipulate polls to give democrats an unfair advantage, do you honestly expect Romney to be ahead? Even when the polls give Obama a +8 turnout advantage he is still only ahead by one or two points.

Only a complete moron things that the Democratic turnout is going to be the same as it was in 2008.

I know, it sucks to have to read the fine print at the bottom of the polls, especially when it doesn’t look good for your candidate.

NerwenAldarion on November 2, 2012 at 12:28 AM

Oh I know the fine print since I read Ed’s analysis of the polls. I don’t believe Obama’s going to win Ohio by 5 points. But there are plenty of reasonable polls that have Obama with a slim lead in the battleground states. Rasmussen recently is predicting a better turnout for Romney than in the 2010 elections. Which is just absurd. So unrealistic polls goes both ways.

Ric on November 2, 2012 at 12:35 AM

RCP doesn’t use old polls. All of the state and national polls are current. As for internals, RCP purposely includes most credible polls so outliers both left and right can be balanced. Ras for example is an outlier. No way is Obama tied in Wis when he is leading independents. +1 Republican isn’t happening either.

Ric on November 2, 2012 at 12:11 AM

Really? What was the final turnout on the Walker recall?

I suppose you will tell me the Wisconsin Democrats & unions weren’t as motivated for that as they will be for the pathetic failure Obama.

Adjoran on November 2, 2012 at 12:50 AM

RCP keeps outliers in the poll average. If you look, there’s always one D9+ poll that shows Obama up 6% or something. That drags the average to Obama for all the polls. Try dropping the best and worst polls and see what happens. Moves closer to Romney every time, every state.

hestrold on November 2, 2012 at 12:57 AM

Really? What was the final turnout on the Walker recall?

I suppose you will tell me the Wisconsin Democrats & unions weren’t as motivated for that as they will be for the pathetic failure Obama.

Adjoran on November 2, 2012 at 12:50 AM

State races and national races are different. Montana keeps electing democrats to congress despite being solidly republican nationally. Once again Ras has Obama up among independents. Romney not going to win if that happens election day.

Ric on November 2, 2012 at 1:01 AM

RCP keeps outliers in the poll average. If you look, there’s always one D9+ poll that shows Obama up 6% or something. That drags the average to Obama for all the polls. Try dropping the best and worst polls and see what happens. Moves closer to Romney every time, every state.

hestrold on November 2, 2012 at 12:57 AM

At this point I say Ras is almost just as bad as the D9+ polls. Drop Ras and all of the Ohio polls have Obama tied or in the lead.

Ric on November 2, 2012 at 1:02 AM

Poor ric and dumby. hopenchange disintegrating right before their very eyes and despite every effort by the corrupt media to stack their polls with ridiculous D+9 and D+11 weights, they can’t stop it…
It’s like 2008 in reverse…
LOL

Strike Hornet on November 2, 2012 at 1:03 AM

The Sandy bounce is already happening, and can clearly be seen in the ABC/Wash Post tracking poll, where Romney is bleeding away Independents.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:28 PM

I’ll file that right next to “The October jobs report is an Atomic Bomb!” Your mouth has a habit of writing checks your ass can’t cash.

Caiwyn on November 2, 2012 at 1:04 AM

I’ll file that right next to “The October jobs report is an Atomic Bomb!” Your mouth has a habit of writing checks your ass can’t cash.

Caiwyn on November 2, 2012 at 1:04 AM

Don’t forget his prediction that Gallup would show a Barky/BiteMe bounce from the 2nd 3rd and 4th debates…STILL waiting for that BOMB to go off…LOL

Strike Hornet on November 2, 2012 at 1:05 AM

Poor ric and dumby. hopenchange disintegrating right before their very eyes and despite every effort by the corrupt media to stack their polls with ridiculous D+9 and D+11 weights, they can’t stop it…
It’s like 2008 in reverse…
LOL

Strike Hornet on November 2, 2012 at 1:03 AM

Visit hotair in 2008. There was also a lot of talk of the corrupt media and biased polls. Even Ed predicted a McCain victory.

Ric on November 2, 2012 at 1:07 AM

Don’t forget his prediction that Gallup would show a Barky/BiteMe bounce from the 2nd 3rd and 4th debates…STILL waiting for that BOMB to go off…LOL

Strike Hornet on November 2, 2012 at 1:05 AM

There’s movement right now. Obama has actually inched ahead of Romney in RCP poll of polls.

Ric on November 2, 2012 at 1:09 AM

Sorry ric, but the reign of terror known as hopenchange is over…no matter what the leftist media want you to believe…it’s over dude…

Strike Hornet on November 2, 2012 at 1:09 AM

Sorry ric, but the reign of terror known as hopenchange is over…no matter what the leftist media want you to believe…it’s over dude…

Strike Hornet on November 2, 2012 at 1:09 AM

Care to provide evidence for your assertion? If you check the hotair archives in 2008 a majority of hotair posters thought McCain was going to win and that the polls were skewed and wrong. We all know how that turned out.

Ric on November 2, 2012 at 1:12 AM

Is it just me or does it seem like the further Romney get’s ahead in the polls the thicker the trolls are on Hot Air?

NerwenAldarion on November 2, 2012 at 12:04 AM

The fact that we’re getting more of them essentially repeating the same line over and over and outright lying in a lot of cases tells me we’re on the cusp of victory. If Obama was winning, we wouldn’t need to hear these constant fairy tales about him being “ahead everywhere” that simply don’t match reality.

Doomberg on November 2, 2012 at 1:16 AM

Is it just me or does it seem like the further Romney get’s ahead in the polls the thicker the trolls are on Hot Air?

NerwenAldarion on November 2, 2012 at 12:04 AM
The fact that we’re getting more of them essentially repeating the same line over and over and outright lying in a lot of cases tells me we’re on the cusp of victory. If Obama was winning, we wouldn’t need to hear these constant fairy tales about him being “ahead everywhere” that simply don’t match reality.

Doomberg on November 2, 2012 at 1:16 AM

Romney isn’t ahead in the polls. Not anymore, check the RCP average, Obama is now ahead. He’s also ahead in the state polls. He’s ahead in the Electoral College. You can say that the polls are skewed and biased. And that the outcome will favor Romney. But to say that Romney is ahead in the polls is factually incorrect.

Ric on November 2, 2012 at 1:19 AM

Obama is going to lose. Sorry Ric.

spec_ops_mateo on November 2, 2012 at 1:32 AM

Care to provide evidence for your assertion? If you check the hotair archives in 2008 a majority of hotair posters thought McCain was going to win and that the polls were skewed and wrong. We all know how that turned out.

Ric on November 2, 2012 at 1:12 AM

Sorry ric, but the boy king and hopenchange, like Jimmy Carter before him are gone…ever to be known in history as a failed one termer…
Bank it…
:)

Strike Hornet on November 2, 2012 at 1:44 AM

The fact that we’re getting more of them essentially repeating the same line over and over and outright lying in a lot of cases tells me we’re on the cusp of victory. If Obama was winning, we wouldn’t need to hear these constant fairy tales about him being “ahead everywhere” that simply don’t match reality.

Doomberg on November 2, 2012 at 1:16 AM

Every crazy hopenchange leftist I know is in panic mode…they see it all disappearing before their very eyes. They were going to “change the world” and now…now it’s all just a dream again as the evil rethuglicans have stolen yet ANOTHER election from the “smart party”…many don’t even want to vote as they are completely defeated and depressed…such a far cry from all the excitement and exhilaration of 2008 and the hopenchange revolution…now, just mope and pain…

My Facebook page hasn’t a single posting from a lefty in a week…they are seemingly STUNNED…
:)

Strike Hornet on November 2, 2012 at 1:49 AM

Sorry ric, but the boy king and hopenchange, like Jimmy Carter before him are gone…ever to be known in history as a failed one termer…
Bank it…

Strike Hornet on November 2, 2012 at 1:44 AM

Well come Tuesday we’re going to see who’s right. Have a good night.

Ric on November 2, 2012 at 1:53 AM

Well come Tuesday we’re going to see who’s right. Have a good night.

Ric on November 2, 2012 at 1:53 AM

good night Ric…you can rest well knowing a solid guy like Mitt Romney will get this country back on track and improve the economy for everyone…you’ll sleep better at night…
:)

Strike Hornet on November 2, 2012 at 2:00 AM

As long as both Gallup and Rasmussen national polls show Romney ahead, there is no way he can lose. You may take a million state polls but in the end, it’ll always come down to those 2 national polls. Rasmussen has Romney up by 2. And the remaining undecideds will mostly break for the challenger. Ric was spouting about Obama taking the lead at the RCP Avg. Yeah, he has a lead of 0.1. Lol. And Ric fails to mention that due to Sandy, Gallup was out of action for the last few days. If Gallup was still polling, no way would Obama have taken the tiny lead at RCP.

tommy71 on November 2, 2012 at 3:12 AM

Republican tsunami on election day.

mitchellvii on November 2, 2012 at 7:53 AM

Iowa slipping away?
Not as long as union people calibrate voting machines.
Once a “glitch” changes your vote from Romney to Obama..thats it. Done deal.

All the reported problems with voting machines just happen to be switching votes to Obama??…coincidence.

Mimzey on November 2, 2012 at 8:10 AM

Republican tsunami on election day.

mitchellvii on November 2, 2012 at 7:53 AM

Thats the only way to squeeze a victory with all the fraud that is already set into motion.
Just my suspicion.

Mimzey on November 2, 2012 at 8:12 AM

As long as both Gallup and Rasmussen national polls show Romney ahead, there is no way he can lose. You may take a million state polls but in the end, it’ll always come down to those 2 national polls. Rasmussen has Romney up by 2. And the remaining undecideds will mostly break for the challenger. Ric was spouting about Obama taking the lead at the RCP Avg. Yeah, he has a lead of 0.1. Lol. And Ric fails to mention that due to Sandy, Gallup was out of action for the last few days. If Gallup was still polling, no way would Obama have taken the tiny lead at RCP.

tommy71 on November 2, 2012 at 3:12 AM

You’re assuming an honest election.

Mimzey on November 2, 2012 at 8:15 AM

Sandy bounce my ass…what has he done? I live in northern NJ and until I see him turn the power switch on, he hasn’t done a effing thing. He came, he saw, he hugged, he left… thanks for nothing.

joepub on November 2, 2012 at 8:17 AM

Caution: A lot can change in four days.

About all Obama’s got left is hoping for a Sandy bounce. I wouldn’t be surprised for him to get a point or two for a couple days, but the sight of New Yorkers eating out of dumpsters should end that pretty quickly.
LukeinNE on November 1, 2012 at 11:18 PM

Combine that with the sight of receding tail lights
from the trucks of all those non-union crews who came to help
and were turned away and he’ll probably lose a couple more points.

mrt721 on November 2, 2012 at 8:47 AM

“Ric” is a brand new troll that the desperate Obama campaign has activated for its futile final days.

Right Mover on November 2, 2012 at 9:57 AM

I would love to see an analysis of how the trolls work here at Hot Air. Did the Obama campaign wait for registration to open here and then scoop up a lot registrations that they then dole out to paid trolls? Or, are these DU and Kos freelancers who were notified of an open registration, registered months ago and sat on the registration until now to annoy us with their twisted logic?

mpthompson on November 2, 2012 at 10:31 AM

BillClinton does it again! And in Iowa!

Bill Clinton: Choice Is Between a Talker and a Doer

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/11/01/bill_clinton_choice_is_between_a_talker_and_a_doer_116007.html

notta_dhimmi on November 2, 2012 at 10:50 AM

The Sandy bounce is already happening, and can clearly be seen in the ABC/Wash Post tracking poll, where Romney is bleeding away Independents.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:28 PM

What “Sandy Bounce”? Lots of Jersey Shore residents have fled inland to more conservative areas of NJ, or to Philly suburbs in PA, probably telling their friends that Christie is doing his best and Obama hasn’t done $#!+. That might not tip the balance in NJ, but it might help Romney in PA.

Then, half of NYC is underwater, with no power or subways, meaning that turnout will be depressed in NYC but unaffected upstate. NY State is normally deep blue but could be close this year due to Sandy.

Steve Z on November 2, 2012 at 12:59 PM