Iowa Slipping Away from Team Obama?
posted at 11:06 pm on November 1, 2012 by Guy Benson
WaPo’s Jennifer Rubin scores an intriguing exclusive look into internal GOP data in Iowa:
– DEM lead of more than 44 points (16.91 to 60.99%) on 9/28 collapsed to 12.27 points by 10/30, an improvement of nearly +32 net points on the margin by Republicans. Republicans have already turned out 128 percent of our absentee and early voters from four years ago — nine percent more than the Democrats have done. Republicans have cut Democrats’ historic advantage in in-person early voting by 75 percent.
– At this time four years ago, Democrats led in-person early voting 70,484 to 41,927. Not only have Republicans turned out 10,000 more early voters than we did at this time in 2008, but more than 10,000 fewer Democrats have voted – a clear sign of their depressed enthusiasm and failure of their ground game to turn their voters out.
– The Obama campaign is panicking, and you can see it in the way they are turning out their most reliable, most likely voters long before Election Day. They are using their highest propensity voters to pad their absentee and early vote numbers. Incredibly, half of Iowa Democrats who have voted in all four of the last four general elections have been made to request absentee ballots or vote early by the Obama campaign…The upshot is that Republicans have twice as many reliable, high propensity voters available on Election Day.
– An Iowa Republican tells me, “I have seen polling from a third-party group, three congressionals, our state Senate campaigns and state House campaigns — all using different pollsters, and ALL of them have Romney rising, and ALL of them have Romney with a 1 to 2 point lead.”
Maybe today’s two-for-three Romney poll performance in the state wasn’t a fluke. Caution: A lot can change in four days.