Green Room

Re: Re: Gallup and enthusiasm

posted at 11:13 pm on October 30, 2012 by

Ed and AP, you don’t even have to go back to polls from three weeks ago to find data that supports the intensity gap theory.  I noted one of the big take-aways from today’s final NPR poll over at Townhall earlier (it was item #2 in a longer list):

(2)Enthusiasm - Republicans are more likely than Democrats to rate this election as a “9″ or “10″ in terms of importance, suggesting an intensity gap.  Republicans outpace Democrats on the “10″ scale by ten points (76/66).  Eighty percent of GOP voters responded with either a 9 or 10, while 72 percent of Democrats did the same.

This poll was D+4, yet had Romney ahead by a point.  If Republican turnout is robust and independents side with Romney by a healthy margin (in the NPR poll, it was 12 points), it will take a monumental turnout from Democrats for Obama to win…the popular vote, at least.  If the electorate is closer to D+0 — and evidence suggests it very well might be — Obama’s climb may be steeper.

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If this election turns out like the Gallup numbers (i.e., a landslide for Romney) the polls that used bogus strats should be called out for what they did.

When the polls aren’t close, the turnout for the losing side is depressed more than the turnout for the winning side. This can affect down-ballot races (e.g., in 1980). It is in the interest of the losing side to produce bogus polls that make the election seem closer than it is.

Pollsters who participate in this kind of deception should be tagged as known deceivers and ignored thereafter.

Pythagoras on October 31, 2012 at 12:56 AM

I was watching BOR. He had a couple of pollsters on. They said gallups job approval rating for the POTUS went fron 46 to 51 percent overnight. So I’m thinking – Is this because of his handling of Sandy, or is this because Sandy screwed up gallup’s sample? Gallup has stopped polling indefinitely. So it could be the latter.

Red Creek on October 31, 2012 at 5:17 AM

Sheesh, even the pollsters are in the tank for duh won.

HomeoftheBrave on October 31, 2012 at 7:18 AM

I was watching BOR. He had a couple of pollsters on. They said gallups job approval rating for the POTUS went fron 46 to 51 percent overnight. So I’m thinking – Is this because of his handling of Sandy, or is this because Sandy screwed up gallup’s sample? Gallup has stopped polling indefinitely. So it could be the latter.

Red Creek on October 31, 2012 at 5:17 AM

I saw that also and found it confusing.
Either way it sucks. Either the polling is just a bogus system or people really are that stupid. To think that people could change their evaluation of Obama based on acting a certain way in relation to a single event is nothing short of depressing.
It’s like finding out your cousin is a child molester, but its o.k. because he works with Habitat for Humanity and is a nice guy.
It’s just a way to hide who he really is.

Mimzey on October 31, 2012 at 7:37 AM

First of all, nobody will remember in 4 years what was done this year in the polls.

McCain was leading Obama after the Palin pick 4 years ago, but when the “financial crisis” hit, people really started believing Obama that the republicans had “ruined the economy” and then people wanted “hope and change”. You don’t hear about that anywhere, but look it up, it’s what happened!

Secondly, now the polls now have a built in “mistake” factor, Sandy. It will be used and repeated by the Old Media hence that will become the meme, even though it’s not true. Truth doesn’t stop them anymore and hasn’t in a while

suzyque on October 31, 2012 at 7:58 AM

Either the polling is just a bogus system or people really are that stupid. To think that people could change their evaluation of Obama based on acting a certain way in relation to a single event is nothing short of depressing.

Mimzey on October 31, 2012 at 7:37 AM

Yes, a LOT of people really are that shallow. It is enough to have swung the poll 5 pts? I don’t know.

But yes, I know quite a few folks who have no idea of what happened in Bengahzi but have seen the Won on TV dealing with the hurricane and they are back to feeling ok with voting for him again.

climbnjump on October 31, 2012 at 9:06 AM