Re: Re: Gallup and enthusiasm
posted at 11:13 pm on October 30, 2012 by Guy Benson
Ed and AP, you don’t even have to go back to polls from three weeks ago to find data that supports the intensity gap theory. I noted one of the big take-aways from today’s final NPR poll over at Townhall earlier (it was item #2 in a longer list):
(2)Enthusiasm – Republicans are more likely than Democrats to rate this election as a “9” or “10” in terms of importance, suggesting an intensity gap. Republicans outpace Democrats on the “10” scale by ten points (76/66). Eighty percent of GOP voters responded with either a 9 or 10, while 72 percent of Democrats did the same.
This poll was D+4, yet had Romney ahead by a point. If Republican turnout is robust and independents side with Romney by a healthy margin (in the NPR poll, it was 12 points), it will take a monumental turnout from Democrats for Obama to win…the popular vote, at least. If the electorate is closer to D+0 — and evidence suggests it very well might be — Obama’s climb may be steeper.