Green Room

Re: Gallup and enthusiasm

posted at 10:19 pm on October 30, 2012 by

AP, I think we’ve actually seen plenty of data to support your hypothesis.  More than three weeks ago, we saw data from the Politico/GWU Battleground poll that showed Republican enthusiasm 13 points higher than enthusiasm among Democrats. The NBC/WSJ poll from three weeks ago showed similar numbers, and especially noted the drop in enthusiasm among key Democratic constituencies:

Look at four years ago. It was a 13 point gap in favor of the Democrats. Let me go through some various voting groups. This is an important voting group. Seniors are an important voting group to Mitt Romney now. He leads them by about 10 points in our NBC Wall Street Journal poll. Look at this in engagement in the election. Four years ago was 81%, pretty higher. Even higher this time at 87%. And Romney’s doing better among seniors than McCain did.

Let me go to an important voting group for the president, young voters. Look at this engagement level: 52% now they call themselves, voters 18 to 34, call themselves extremely interested in this election. Four years ago it was 72%. That 20 gap. The president wins young voters by huge margins. He’s winning them by some 20-plus points. But if you don’t have this kind of enthusiasm, they’re not going to show up to the polls.

And then let me give you this last one here, because this is, I think, the most important one. And that’s Hispanics. The President’s winning Hispanics by 50 points. He hit the 70% mark. However, look at this in terms of interest in the election. 59% now, it was 77%. What does that mean? President got 65%, I believe, of Hispanics four years ago.

Put all this with Gallup’s poll from today and their early-voting poll from yesterday, and I think you’re dead right.  Republicans have more enthusiasm, and Romney’s winning independents.  Unless something breaks significantly in the next few days, those trends are huge problems for Obama, and probably why he’s having to spend money in Michigan and Pennsylvania this week.

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Ed, do you not care about the rampant trolling going on in the hurricane thread?

wargamer6 on October 30, 2012 at 10:28 PM

Enthusiasm– it’s very hard for that to change with just one week left.

Let’s hope it affects senate races as much as the presidential race.

Dextrous on October 30, 2012 at 10:41 PM

This post sums it all up pretty well. Enthusiasm plus independents for Romney and it’s a long row to hoe for Obama.

forest on October 30, 2012 at 10:42 PM

wargamer6 on October 30, 2012 at 10:28 PM

Which one? All the threads are going a bit nuts. It’s almost like commenters have been sitting at home drinking for three days due to a big storm.

forest on October 30, 2012 at 10:45 PM

forest on October 30, 2012 at 10:45 PM

Gumby’s been humping the fatalities in the hurricane thread.

wargamer6 on October 30, 2012 at 10:46 PM

Picking up from Guy Benson’s thread last night analyzing the Gallup numbers, is this increase in early voting more indicative of an overall wave or that enthusiasm gap?

That is, are Republicans, in their enthusiasm, breaking the trend in going to the polls more than Democrats, meaning we actually are cannibalizing a greater share of our Election Day vote? Or are we just having trouble admitting to ourselves that we might be seeing a Democrat get walloped hard enough that they concede on election night for the first time in a generation?

Gingotts on October 30, 2012 at 11:01 PM

ED,

I miss the First Mate’s postings on Faith. Is she okay?

portlandon on October 30, 2012 at 11:02 PM

Gumby’s been humping the fatalities in the hurricane thread.

wargamer6 on October 30, 2012 at 10:46 PM

Good grief. Last I saw from that one, it was saying nobody cares about Benghazi. A real banner day.

forest on October 30, 2012 at 11:05 PM

Republicans tend not to make as much noise leading up to an election as Dems do. They hold it in and get event in the polling booth. That’s what happened in 1994 and the MSM branded GOP voters as “angry white males.” So for Republicans to actually show enthusiasm may be a prelude to Romney and Republicans doing much better than expected. (My wife told a pollster she would crawl through broken glass to vote for Romney.)

Has anyone seen any crosstabs on young male voters? The reason I ask is that in 2002 Romney polled better with young males in his race against Shannon O’Brien for Gov. of MA. There may be some hidden strength here for Romney if this group actually shows up to vote.

vamoose on October 30, 2012 at 11:22 PM