Re: Gallup and enthusiasm
posted at 10:19 pm on October 30, 2012 by Ed Morrissey
AP, I think we’ve actually seen plenty of data to support your hypothesis. More than three weeks ago, we saw data from the Politico/GWU Battleground poll that showed Republican enthusiasm 13 points higher than enthusiasm among Democrats. The NBC/WSJ poll from three weeks ago showed similar numbers, and especially noted the drop in enthusiasm among key Democratic constituencies:
Look at four years ago. It was a 13 point gap in favor of the Democrats. Let me go through some various voting groups. This is an important voting group. Seniors are an important voting group to Mitt Romney now. He leads them by about 10 points in our NBC Wall Street Journal poll. Look at this in engagement in the election. Four years ago was 81%, pretty higher. Even higher this time at 87%. And Romney’s doing better among seniors than McCain did.
Let me go to an important voting group for the president, young voters. Look at this engagement level: 52% now they call themselves, voters 18 to 34, call themselves extremely interested in this election. Four years ago it was 72%. That 20 gap. The president wins young voters by huge margins. He’s winning them by some 20-plus points. But if you don’t have this kind of enthusiasm, they’re not going to show up to the polls.
And then let me give you this last one here, because this is, I think, the most important one. And that’s Hispanics. The President’s winning Hispanics by 50 points. He hit the 70% mark. However, look at this in terms of interest in the election. 59% now, it was 77%. What does that mean? President got 65%, I believe, of Hispanics four years ago.
Put all this with Gallup’s poll from today and their early-voting poll from yesterday, and I think you’re dead right. Republicans have more enthusiasm, and Romney’s winning independents. Unless something breaks significantly in the next few days, those trends are huge problems for Obama, and probably why he’s having to spend money in Michigan and Pennsylvania this week.