Green Room

Hmmm: Gallup says turnout this year likely to fall short of 2004 and 2008

posted at 8:43 pm on October 30, 2012 by

RCP elections analyst Sean Trende called this a “shocking poll” on Twitter. Is it?

Trende’s forgotten more about politics than I’ll ever know but this is what I would have expected. 2004 was uniquely intense because it followed 9/11 and shaped up as a referendum on the war and foreign policy. 2008 was unique because both parties had competitive primaries (very competitive in the Democrats’ case), Obama’s candidacy was historic, and Hopenchange fee-vah managed to mobilize some groups, like young voters, who don’t otherwise turn out in huge numbers. This year should be more intense than both of those since it’ll have momentous consequences for the size of the federal government long-term, but that’s not how most people view the race, I think. Until a month ago, a lot of undecideds presumably viewed it as a battle between Obama and that rich guy who gives his workers’ wives cancer and cheats on his taxes. Even now, despite Ryan being on the ticket, there’s less talk of big-picture fiscal reform than I would have expected. The stakes next Tuesday are huge, but it’s not hard to understand why they wouldn’t feel huge to a lot of people who don’t follow politics every day.

That said, lower turnout this year probably bodes well for Romney and the GOP. People who voted in 2008 but are staying home in 2012 are more likely to be Democrats (probably younger Democrats whose fee-vah has broken), I think, than Republicans. If you voted for McCain, why wouldn’t you vote for Mitt? I’d be shocked if his support among GOPers fails to exceed Maverick’s.

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Gallup and Rasmussen, both with large Sample Surveys found an R +1 to +3 Electorate, this would just be more evidence to support that.

Which means all the polls are wrong, and Romney is on his way to a +5-10 victory !!!

jp on October 30, 2012 at 8:50 PM

I hope this means a lot of Dems are staying home.

changer1701 on October 30, 2012 at 8:53 PM

This poll is devastating to Team Obama. A lower overall turnout guarantees that whichever side is more enthused to vote will clobber the other side. My earlier prediction of a R landslide may have been too conservative.

TXUS on October 30, 2012 at 9:00 PM

I saw the youth vote enthusiam dropped from like 73% to 58%. If we lose the lsoers voting to claim history for Obama I could care less. I can believe that Obama is the only one losing votes between 2008 and 2012.

Conan on October 30, 2012 at 9:03 PM

Let’s see. The ol’ Lanceman has bloviated on numerous occasions that obama will not get 40,000,000 votes.

Might I have been prescient in my hyperbole?

Lanceman on October 30, 2012 at 9:05 PM

Libs will wait for the Voting bus…….

Republicans will find means anyway neccessary to get there!

canopfor on October 30, 2012 at 9:06 PM

RCP elections analyst Sean Trende called this a “shocking poll” on Twitter. Is it?
===============

A bit!!

canopfor on October 30, 2012 at 9:11 PM

Why is this in the green room. Don’t you know we’re desperate for more poll analysis.

That sounded dirty.

DeathtotheSwiss on October 30, 2012 at 9:12 PM

What happened to all my question marks?

DeathtotheSwiss on October 30, 2012 at 9:13 PM

I hope this means a lot of Dems are staying home.

changer1701 on October 30, 2012 at 8:53 PM

That is exactly what it means…

mnjg on October 30, 2012 at 9:14 PM

This elections will see 10 millions less votes than in 2008, almost all of them are Obama voters, most of them would be young voters 18-29…

mnjg on October 30, 2012 at 9:17 PM

That sounded dirty.

polls and dirt. perfect together

lol

gerrym51 on October 30, 2012 at 9:20 PM

If you voted for McCain, why wouldn’t you vote for Mitt?

Do you really want the entire litany of reasons?

Stoic Patriot on October 30, 2012 at 9:24 PM

Makes sense other than the fact that the GOP’s intense dislike of Obama is going to propel us to the polls just like it did in 2010. He has to go, this one is for all the marbles. I say a Romney victory by 5%.

BettyRuth on October 30, 2012 at 9:24 PM

Do you really want the entire litany of reasons?

Stoic Patriot on October 30, 2012 at 9:24 PM

Can you make it not look like a Gumbo poll post?

Lanceman on October 30, 2012 at 9:27 PM

The only way this is remotely true is because Republicans come out to vote while Dems stay home. That’s about it.

princetrumpet on October 30, 2012 at 9:32 PM

Republicans would crawl through broken glass to vote this year.

mitchellvii on October 30, 2012 at 9:39 PM

Why is this in the green room. Don’t you know we’re desperate for more poll analysis.

DeathtotheSwiss

Why is there a Green Room in the first place?

xblade on October 30, 2012 at 10:23 PM

One group that is less likely to vote this year: all the people who have to deal with unexpected problems due to an enormous hurricane that just swept through their lives.

Dextrous on October 30, 2012 at 10:49 PM

Why is there a Green Room in the first place?

Because Salem Communications is still figuring out this whole “blogging” fad.

RightKlik on October 30, 2012 at 10:55 PM

Dextrous on October 30, 2012 at 10:49 PM

Well, who are those voters whose lives are so negatively impacted by SANDY that they won’t vote?

They’re DEMOCRATS in New York and New Jersey, two states that are reliably in Obama’s corner.

So, who the hell cares if they vote or not?

mountainaires on October 31, 2012 at 6:39 AM

Just wanted to reposted this excellent comment from another thread:

Obama took independents by about 7 last time. He’s losing them by about 10 this time.
Also, everyone should remember that the Dems have been pushing their most reliable voters into early voting, while the GOP has been going after marginal voters. Election Day is going to lean GOP even more than usual.
TallDave on October 31, 2012 at 7:24 AM

bluegill on October 31, 2012 at 7:27 AM