Green Room

WaPo moves Minnesota from “solid Obama” …

posted at 11:09 am on October 29, 2012 by

… to “leans Obama,” based in large part on yesterday’s Star Tribune poll and the increased spending by both campaigns in the state:

The Fix today is moving Minnesota, the state that hasn’t voted Republican since 1972, from “solid Obama” to “lean Obama.” The move comes in response to two major developments:

1) A new Star Tribune poll conducted by Mason-Dixon and released Sunday showed Mitt Romney within the margin of error against Obama, with Obama at 47 percent and Romney at 44 percent. That’s closer than any other poll has shown.

2) Both sides are now spending money in Minnesota, with Romney’s campaign launching a very small ad buy and Obama’s launching a $500,000 buy in the Twin Cities media market.

Interestingly, they still have Ohio as “leans Obama,” too, and Pennsylvania and Michigan in the same status.  They have Florida and Virginia as toss-ups, along with Colorado, and I think at least two of those three should be reconsidered to “leans Romney.”

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It’s wapo…no leans Romney for as long as possible

cmsinaz on October 29, 2012 at 11:12 AM

It’s wapo…no leans Romney racist for as long as possible

cmsinaz on October 29, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Now that’s more like it.

Laura in Maryland on October 29, 2012 at 11:23 AM

Having Minnesota as “leans” Obama would be like having Oklahoma as “leans” Romney.

Speak volumes of which campaign has the momentum going into the final week.

Norwegian on October 29, 2012 at 11:27 AM

:) Laura

cmsinaz on October 29, 2012 at 11:29 AM

I like it. I know that no pollsters will move IL out of solid Obamuh but we might just do that on election day. No one mentions this but for 6 straight presidential elections from 1968 through 1988 IL voted red and in 2010 IL voted very red again and people seem to forget that IL also had 4 Republican governors from 1973 to 2003. So if it can happen in MN for the first time in 40 years, it can certainly happen in IL, too.

stukinIL4now on October 29, 2012 at 11:32 AM

@StarTribune: As presidential race tightens, former President Clinton plans a Minnesota visit http://t.co/UUhcNAlr

mrscullen on October 29, 2012 at 11:35 AM

Take a look at a beautiful sight. The RealClear politics electoral map. Yes, it shows the electoral vote sums as roughly equal, but it also shows the following:

Between the Democratic northeast, and the Democratic west coast, there are just three states that are any shade of blue at all.

Dextrous on October 29, 2012 at 12:00 PM

Hee Hee

gophergirl on October 29, 2012 at 12:00 PM

Just remember guys: no polls released before next Mon matter.

They’re only judged on their last poll, and everyone is releasing their last polls on Mon/Tues this year.

TallDave on October 29, 2012 at 12:24 PM

In 2008, Romney won the straw poll for the Republican Caucus over McCain. He spent a lot of time here in Minnesota and he held and kissed my third child.

I mean, what more do you need?

winoceros on October 29, 2012 at 1:32 PM