Green Room

Oh My: Romney Leads 52/46 Among Early Voters Nationally?

posted at 10:55 pm on October 29, 2012 by

This data point was flagged by Breitbart’s John Nolte, who was initially thrown off by the mundane, nothing-to-see-here headline, “In US, 15% of Registered Voters Have Already Cast Ballots.”  But then there’s this, fresh from Gallup:

Am I missing something, or is this a rather significant development?  Isn’t early voting supposed to be Democrats’ secret weapon, with which they run up the score, then dare the GOP to catch up on Election Day?  And unlike the snapshot national polls that we obsess over each day (many of which are based upon samples of 800-1,200 respondents), this survey has a massive sample size of 3,312 registered voters.  Of those who say they’ve already voted nationwide, the D/R/I is 33/37/29, or R+4.  Glance over that chart one more time.  If those stats are even close to representative of the 2012 electorate, Obama is going to lose.  Right?  Or have I managed to blind myself to a glaring caveat or two?

– I suppose Obama could be cleaning up in swing state early voting, and Romney’s apparent lead is being banked in places where it won’t ultimately matter.  But as Josh Jordan has written, major national trends and CW in the battlegrounds have to collide at some point.  It will be interesting to hear Team O’s spin on this…though they may just shout “outlier,” as they have with much of the Gallup data in recent weeks.

UPDATE II– Two more reasons I’m taking something of a “too-good-to-be-true” approach to this poll: (1) I just can’t reconcile it with the numerous other polls showing a close race.  And this election at least feels like a close race.  (2) Gallup’s write up seems decidedly nonchalant about their own information.  Here’s a direct quote: “Political impact of early voting looks minimal…Thus far, early voters do not seem to be swaying the election toward either candidate.”

UPDATE III – But wait, there’s more.  Here are Gallup’s stats from October 28, 2008: Obama led in early voting by 15 points (55/40).  His election day edge was just three points.  He ended up winning by seven points.  One more note.  According to Gallup, by 10/28/08, the percentage of Americans who said they’d already voted or planned to vote early was 33 percent.  Four years later, that number sits at…33 percent.

Recently in the Green Room:



Trackback URL


HotAir — Politics, Culture, Media, 2017, Breaking News from a conservative viewpoint
Top Pick

“Bernie and Jane Sanders have lawyered up.”

“the Judiciary Committee is examining the circumstances surrounding the removal of James Comey.”

Winning isn’t everything. It is the only thing

Trump signs VA reform bill into law

John Sexton Jun 23, 2017 2:41 PM

“What happened was a national disgrace, and yet some of the employees involved in these scandals remained on the payrolls.”

A new era of something.

“…died suddenly in less than a week just after his return to the U.S.”

The shortsightedness of “Denounce and Preserve”

Taylor Millard Jun 23, 2017 12:11 PM

Pragmatism for the sake of pragmatism doesn’t always work.

Perhaps if you threw in a new car?

Gay marriages still growing, but not as fast

Andrew Malcolm Jun 23, 2017 10:31 AM

More, but not as quickly.

Should’ve stuck with the pirate gig. It was working for him

The battle for the rubble of Raqqa is underway

Andrew Malcolm Jun 23, 2017 8:51 AM

Won’t be much left.

Your list of demands is a publicity stunt

“what happened that day was emblematic of a deeply troubling trend among progressives…”

“The jobs are still leaving. Nothing has stopped.”

Bad vendor. Bad! No cookie!

“The Corps is just starting to grapple with the issues the court has identified.”

“So you want me to sing my praises, is that what you’re saying?”

Why would we possibly want that?

“I mean he sold our country to The Russians.”

I could think of someone else you might want to ask about…

“You can ask a hundred people what hate speech is and you get a thousand different answers”

Trump: I never made any recordings of Comey

Allahpundit Jun 22, 2017 2:01 PM


Hackers stole private data from election databases

John Sexton Jun 22, 2017 1:21 PM

“90,000 records stolen by Russian state actors contained drivers license numbers”

Failure to protect the city

Big man on the Middle Eastern campus

Biased Americans see media as biased.

Tough times down on the liberal ranch

Will Nancy Pelosi survive this latest Dem disaster?

Andrew Malcolm Jun 22, 2017 8:41 AM

Eat quick, before it’s gone.

Slow your roll, boss

“I’m bothered by the lack of emerging evidence…”

FIrst look at the Senate health bill

John Sexton Jun 21, 2017 9:21 PM

“the Senate bill would go farther than the House version in its approach to cutting Medicaid spending.”

Divide and conquer?

“If we do nothing, more companies will back out and more people will lose coverage.”