Green Room

Oh My: Romney Leads 52/46 Among Early Voters Nationally?

posted at 10:55 pm on October 29, 2012 by

This data point was flagged by Breitbart’s John Nolte, who was initially thrown off by the mundane, nothing-to-see-here headline, “In US, 15% of Registered Voters Have Already Cast Ballots.”  But then there’s this, fresh from Gallup:


Am I missing something, or is this a rather significant development?  Isn’t early voting supposed to be Democrats’ secret weapon, with which they run up the score, then dare the GOP to catch up on Election Day?  And unlike the snapshot national polls that we obsess over each day (many of which are based upon samples of 800-1,200 respondents), this survey has a massive sample size of 3,312 registered voters.  Of those who say they’ve already voted nationwide, the D/R/I is 33/37/29, or R+4.  Glance over that chart one more time.  If those stats are even close to representative of the 2012 electorate, Obama is going to lose.  Right?  Or have I managed to blind myself to a glaring caveat or two?


UPDATE
– I suppose Obama could be cleaning up in swing state early voting, and Romney’s apparent lead is being banked in places where it won’t ultimately matter.  But as Josh Jordan has written, major national trends and CW in the battlegrounds have to collide at some point.  It will be interesting to hear Team O’s spin on this…though they may just shout “outlier,” as they have with much of the Gallup data in recent weeks.

UPDATE II- Two more reasons I’m taking something of a “too-good-to-be-true” approach to this poll: (1) I just can’t reconcile it with the numerous other polls showing a close race.  And this election at least feels like a close race.  (2) Gallup’s write up seems decidedly nonchalant about their own information.  Here’s a direct quote: “Political impact of early voting looks minimal…Thus far, early voters do not seem to be swaying the election toward either candidate.”

UPDATE III – But wait, there’s more.  Here are Gallup’s stats from October 28, 2008: Obama led in early voting by 15 points (55/40).  His election day edge was just three points.  He ended up winning by seven points.  One more note.  According to Gallup, by 10/28/08, the percentage of Americans who said they’d already voted or planned to vote early was 33 percent.  Four years later, that number sits at…33 percent.

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*crossing fingers*

anything can happen….i don’t trust the obama administration and the lsm

cmsinaz on October 30, 2012 at 7:01 AM

Herman Cain was right. Mitt by 9. 9.9.9.

Basilsbest on October 30, 2012 at 7:03 AM

With response rates as they are, all polling is suspect, but the general oversampling of Dems indicates that this isn’t going to be a close race.

Count to 10 on October 30, 2012 at 8:11 AM

“feels like a close race” – Where are you?

In the NVA suburbs we have door knockers out – Our team (TEA) as of 2 weeks ago knocked 7600 doors NOT hard D and NOT hard R – the so called middle.

Results in FX\Alexandria appx 3200\7600-knocks: responses, 47% Romney with enthusiasm, 30% for Obama, and 20% undecided and 3% other, and that was 2 weeks ago before Mittmentum was apparent –

We stopped pushing Romney primarily, now we push Allen and down ballot races in our walks

NVA Patriot on October 30, 2012 at 8:15 AM

A week to go, now the D+double-digits polling begins…only way to put the Light in Blightbringer..

hillsoftx on October 30, 2012 at 8:23 AM

NVA Patriot on October 30, 2012 at 8:15 AM

God’s work you’re doing there.

hawkdriver on October 30, 2012 at 8:39 AM

I live in Los Angeles and the thing that strikes me is the absence of Obama bumper stickers and yard signs. In 2008 the place was plastered with them. Now nothing. To be fair, there arn’t that many Romney bumper Stickers either but I suspect that is because people just don’t want to get their car keyed.

Driving through Palos Verde, a hilly suburb of the 1% , I counted 14 Romney yard signs to 1 Obama sign. This confounded me because I expected that there would be more rich liberals up there. Maybe there still is but they may not be as enthusiastic about this election.

Uniblogger on October 30, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Pray like everything depends on God, work like it all depends on you!—Let’s vote. Let’s work …..GO ROMNEY!

Herb on October 30, 2012 at 8:52 AM

Isn’t it possible that gop voters are just more energized and can’t wait to vote against Obama?

Don’t forget Romney has to win Ohio and some other states like Wisconsin, Virginia etc. Because the gop concedes at the outset about 200 electoral votes to the Dems (California/NY/Ill/etc.)

PappyD61 on October 30, 2012 at 9:05 AM

I disagree with Guy. This doesn’t feel like a close race to me. This feels like a race that Romney is winning handily and in which the polls are wrong. A lot of that is just “gut feeling” on my part, but a lot of it is also the utter desperation and panic we are seeing from the Obama campaign, the media, and Democrats in general.

Shump on October 30, 2012 at 9:23 AM

My gut disagrees with guy’s gut. In 2008, you *knew* McCain was going to lose badly. 2004 felt like a close race. This has felt like a landslide all along. I was not a Mitt fans the primaries, and when he got the nomination, I was disappointed my guy didn’t get it. However, my first thought about Romney winning the GOP nomination was, “at least we nominated a competent guy who is going to win it” Romney has been successful in projecting that image despite all of Obama’s negative adds and the media’s skewed polling and biased reporting.

bitsy on October 30, 2012 at 9:40 AM

This poll is not scientific as it does not take into account the dead votes.

Michael

MikeM on October 30, 2012 at 9:40 AM

a lot of it is also the utter desperation and panic we are seeing from the Obama campaign, the media, and Democrats in general.

Um, why do you say that..? Have a look at TNR, HuffPo, TalkingPointsMemo, the New Yorker, Washington Monthly etc.. How many doom-and-gloom articles to do you find there? I sense they were scared shitless by Obama’s brief free-fall in the polls between October 4- ~10. But the state polls have shown encouraging trends recently (e.g. RCP has flipped Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia back to the D column and even Florida and North Carolina are closer than they used to be). And Romney’s national lead is less than one point and largely due to a single pollster (Gallup). To me the Real Clear Politics data resemble 2004 a lot, although the incumbent is a Democrat this time. The polls have been unusually stable this year, and they have an excellent track record predicting national elections this century.

I honestly think the HotAir crowd is delusional about this. But at least this is one of those rare politics/social science-related debates that will be conclusively settled.

mlindroo on October 30, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Still do not understand new Green Room, but if it allows Guy Benson to post here, I guess I can come around.

Anywho… I am happy to have contributed to our early voting lead yesterday afternoon! Romney, Ryan, Cruz, Johnson FTW!

stvnscott on October 30, 2012 at 10:44 AM

I’m seeing Romney at 317 EV’s right now.

Nethicus on October 30, 2012 at 10:46 AM

This election isn’t going to be close. There is one simple reason why.

Obama is a crappy President.

trigon on October 30, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Don’t forget that McCain won Ohio on Election Day turnout… it was the early votes that pushed Obama to win in Ohio.

HopeHeFails on October 30, 2012 at 12:24 PM

Rather than examining polls, I find it more useful to analyze actual early voter turnout data.


Some state data are more accessible and have a better and more useful presentation than others.

rocksandbroncs on October 30, 2012 at 12:46 PM

I honestly think the HotAir crowd is delusional about this. But at least this is one of those rare politics/social science-related debates that will be conclusively settled.

mlindroo on October 30, 2012 at 10:29 AM

So thinking a 22% swing, according to Gallup, is a big deal makes us delusional? Thinking it’s a big deal that they’re showing Romney winning the early vote this year makes us delusional? Please, expound.

Also, this is false:

RCP has flipped Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia back to the D column

Virginia: Tied – http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/va/virginia_romney_vs_obama-1774.html
Colorado: Tied – http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html
New Hampshire: Tied, unless you believe the UNH poll showing O+9 is in anyway reflective of reality: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_romney_vs_obama-2030.html
But even with it, it’s still in the toss up category.

But you’re right, we’re “delusional”. Although you’re the one seeing things.

strictnein on October 30, 2012 at 1:00 PM

rocksandbroncs on October 30, 2012 at 12:46 PM

What are you hoping people see from that site? Most of the info there is about ballots requested.

strictnein on October 30, 2012 at 1:01 PM

Um, why do you say that..? Have a look at TNR, HuffPo, TalkingPointsMemo, the New Yorker, Washington Monthly etc.. How many doom-and-gloom articles to do you find there?

mlindroo on October 30, 2012 at 10:29 AM

He didn’t say “doom-and-gloom” he said “panic”. This is what panic looks like:

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/30/politico-looks-like-a-draw-on-early-voting/

Desperate spinning of bad news as no big deal = panic. Obama’s big trump card was supposed to be early voting, but indications are that he’s doing far worse this year than 2008. Playing that off as no big deal is laughable.

strictnein on October 30, 2012 at 1:07 PM

strictnein on October 30, 2012 at 1:00 PM

Also, this is false:

RCP has flipped Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia back to the D column

It’s not, although I should have been more clear. I was talking about the “no toss up states” map that RCP maintains. Obama is leading 290-248 and I fully expect Obama to regain a minuscule lead as the oldest poll in their database favors Romney. At that point the score is going to be 303-235. That’s quite a big hole for Mitt considering he is trailing in OH, WI, IA, NH and NV by ~2% or even more.

Anyway, your big mistake (I think) is that you exaggerate the importance of outliers such as Gallup and Rasmussen while entirely dismissing everything that does not fit “the Romney momentum” meme. Any single poll can be dead wrong at any given time. I remember looking at the RCP averages back in 2004 and feeling dejected since Kerry kept trailing narrowly in the average of all polls. Some liberals were attacking the pollsters, claiming their samples were wrong. ‘Maybe there was hope after all’? But in the end, the polling consensus was about right. Sure — some individual pollsters had a strong GOP bias while others were too optimistic about Kerry’s chances. But the average of those polls still predicted the outcome in every single state except Wisconsin, where Bush lost despite leading by 0.4%. And it was the same story again in 2008.

mlindroo on October 30, 2012 at 6:12 PM

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