Game Over, Man
posted at 1:33 pm on October 29, 2012 by Duane Patterson
Last Thursday, Hugh Hewitt interviewed John McIntyre, principal contributor to Real Clear Politics, for an overview of what all the recent wave of polling data tells us. The transcript of their interview is here.
The two takeaways were this: 1) In the ten most recent national polls included in RCP’s average, one number was remarkably consistent – Barack Obama’s number is pegged at 47%. Asked what that told John McIntyre, he replied, “[Obama’s] likely to lose.” 2) Hugh questioned J-Mac what he made of Ohio numbers that don’t necessarily square with the rest of the national numbers, and John had this to say:
Well look, you know, our Real Clear Politics average had it at about five, five and a half before the first debate. It’s now at two. And these state averages lag the national average. So I suspect that if the national average just stays where it is, to continue to tighten. And then you get a dynamic so it’s like the President’s at 48% in Ohio. But if he’s at 48% on the ballot test, and he’s only up a point in the average? That almost, the edge almost leans to Romney at that matter, because the undecideds are probably going to break, you know, they’re not, it’s very unlikely they’re going to break for the President. So I think with the fact that the state polls lag the national polls, so I think Ohio’s actually closer than two points right now. And you give, you know, the President’s not at 50%. He’s at 48%. I would give, right now, the slight edge to Romney in Ohio.
Now it’s Monday, 8 days before the election, and the lag factor seems to be catching up, according to Rasmussen. Governor Romney now leads the President in the crown jewel of swing states, Ohio, by 2 points. Add to that bit of data a $2.1 million dollar ad buy in Pennsylvania, the fact that Team Obama is having to dispatch Bill Clinton to try and defend Minnesota, and Wisconsin and Iowa continuing to show good signs, I’m this close from uttering the words.
It doesn’t mean I can’t write them down, though.