Green Room

Game Over, Man

posted at 1:33 pm on October 29, 2012 by

Last Thursday, Hugh Hewitt interviewed John McIntyre, principal contributor to Real Clear Politics, for an overview of what all the recent wave of polling data tells us. The transcript of their interview is here.

The two takeaways were this: 1) In the ten most recent national polls included in RCP’s average, one number was remarkably consistent – Barack Obama’s number is pegged at 47%. Asked what that told John McIntyre, he replied, “[Obama's] likely to lose.” 2) Hugh questioned J-Mac what he made of Ohio numbers that don’t necessarily square with the rest of the national numbers, and John had this to say:

Well look, you know, our Real Clear Politics average had it at about five, five and a half before the first debate. It’s now at two. And these state averages lag the national average. So I suspect that if the national average just stays where it is, to continue to tighten. And then you get a dynamic so it’s like the President’s at 48% in Ohio. But if he’s at 48% on the ballot test, and he’s only up a point in the average? That almost, the edge almost leans to Romney at that matter, because the undecideds are probably going to break, you know, they’re not, it’s very unlikely they’re going to break for the President. So I think with the fact that the state polls lag the national polls, so I think Ohio’s actually closer than two points right now. And you give, you know, the President’s not at 50%. He’s at 48%. I would give, right now, the slight edge to Romney in Ohio.

Now it’s Monday, 8 days before the election, and the lag factor seems to be catching up, according to Rasmussen. Governor Romney now leads the President in the crown jewel of swing states, Ohio, by 2 points. Add to that bit of data a $2.1 million dollar ad buy in Pennsylvania, the fact that Team Obama is having to dispatch Bill Clinton to try and defend Minnesota, and Wisconsin and Iowa continuing to show good signs, I’m this close from uttering the words.

It doesn’t mean I can’t write them down, though.

 

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Gumby says that Real Clear Politics is really a Republican front group that is owned by Karl Rove, the Koch Bros, Richard Mellon Scaife, Sheldon Adelson and Grover Norquist. You can’t believe anything that comes out of that hack organisation./

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 1:40 PM

The proof is already in the pudding – See early voting totals; GOP is outperforming their 2004 totals, Dems underperforming their 2008 totals in nearly every single battleground state.

Additionally; Karl Rove had an interesting point yesterday that I had not considered:

“If you look at Ohio, for example, 57 percent of the absentee ballot requests come from Democrats who had voted in none, one or two of the last three elections, 72 percent of the Republican absentee ballot application come from people who didn’t vote — voted in none, one or two of the last elections. That is to say the Democrats are cannibalizing their Election Day turnout, the Republicans are the ones who are getting the new voters out.”

The “Game” has been over for some time now.

Norwegian on October 29, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Gumby says that Real Clear Politics is really a Republican front group that is owned by Karl Rove, the Koch Bros, Richard Mellon Scaife, Sheldon Adelson and Grover Norquist. You can’t believe anything that comes out of that hack organisation./

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 1:40 PM

Some people might wonder why you’re getting your information from claymation action figures in the first place.

David Shane on October 29, 2012 at 1:44 PM

Eh, I think it’s way too close, and the polls way too screwy, to even write those words down.

changer1701 on October 29, 2012 at 1:46 PM

Articles like this really don’t help.

We must FIGHT HARD until it’s over. You ignore the fact that Romney will have no media presence for the next 2 days while POTUS gets to act all presidential. You ignore the media being in the tank for him during this time.

Don’t bounce your cookies before they hatch.

Go hard people. Drive friends to the polls if necessary. MAKE them vote.

Capitalist Hog on October 29, 2012 at 1:47 PM

Some people might wonder why you’re getting your information from claymation action figures in the first place.

David Shane on October 29, 2012 at 1:44 PM

Notice sarc tag. It’s there for a reason.

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Obama will secure his glorious victory by going after the tattooed virgin vote.

faraway on October 29, 2012 at 1:53 PM

Obama will secure his glorious victory by going after the tattooed virgin vote.

faraway on October 29, 2012 at 1:53 PM

Voting virgins. Ain’t nobody with a tat that is a virgin.

NotCoach on October 29, 2012 at 2:02 PM

PPP was robo-polling MN last week. It took three attempts but they finally noted I was voting for Romney and not Obama. Today the DFL calls. So yah, it’s close even in MN.

bhuron on October 29, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Ha! Going by DP is kinda like me going by BM. Bad idea. Lol!

Bmore on October 29, 2012 at 2:18 PM

I’m this close from uttering the words.

We don’t need no stinkin’ polls! Repeat after me Duane, “People vote their wallets. They always have, and they always will.”

That is all you need to know.

woodNfish on October 29, 2012 at 2:22 PM

UNINSTALLING OBAMA…..……………. █████████████▒▒▒ 90% complete.

Jocundus on October 29, 2012 at 3:09 PM

Voting virgins. Ain’t nobody with a tat that is a virgin.

NotCoach on October 29, 2012 at 2:02 PM

wrong there!!! there are 2 up for sale on Ebay right now!

teejk on October 29, 2012 at 3:15 PM

“it’s not the people who vote that count; it’s the people that count the vote”.

when you consider over 700 people over the age of 110 voted democrat in the last election in North Carolina and that more people voted democrat than are alive in Lake County, Indiana it’s pretty likely that 3-5% of the vote totals in key states will be manipulated. Lose a couple of container loads of votes from the military and bus in trainloads of somalis, latinos, felons and dead people and you have a electoral college victory. Romney will win the popular vote but lose the fixed results.

acyl72 on October 29, 2012 at 3:35 PM

Go hard people. Drive friends to the polls if necessary. MAKE them vote.

Capitalist Hog on October 29, 2012 at 1:47 PM

Not my friends. Except for a very few, my friends are as starry-eyed a bunch of butterflies-and-unicorns-believing global-warmenist libbies as you’ll find anywhere. At parties I smile and nod a lot. *sigh* :-/

I could do more good for the country by hosting a very boozy party on Monday evening and letting all my friends sleep it off at my place. Too bad that probably wouldn’t work. Well, there is one self-professed independent in the bunch. Maybe I can work on her a little…

Mary in LA on October 29, 2012 at 3:50 PM

We just might get two Christmases this year after all.

FlatFoot on October 29, 2012 at 4:43 PM

This makes no sense. If Obama really were at 51% job approval, then he’d be winning in the polls, not languishing around 47%. BS alert here on Gallup. I do believe that people have made up their minds and have had enough of Obama. Game really is over, man.

conservativemusician on October 29, 2012 at 4:45 PM

This makes no sense. If Obama really were at 51% job approval, then he’d be winning in the polls, not languishing around 47%. BS alert here on Gallup. I do believe that people have made up their minds and have had enough of Obama. Game really is over, man.

conservativemusician on October 29, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Gallup always polls ADULTS to get job approval numbers. In fact, I think every polling outfit does that for every candidate.

Elizabetty on October 29, 2012 at 4:56 PM

How about this. Everyone ignores gumby and every post he makes. No responses to them. No reactions.

BrianVII on October 29, 2012 at 6:26 PM