Green Room

Gallup tracking poll: Good news for both?

posted at 2:33 pm on October 29, 2012 by

Well, sort of.  Mitt Romney extended his tracking poll lead to five points and leads 51/46 in the seven-day result among likely voters.  Romney also picked up a point among registered voters to tie Barack Obama again at 48/48.  However, Obama picked up a huge 7 points in the gap on his job approval rating to go from 48/48 to 51/44.

On the other hand, is that really good news for Obama?  He apparently had a big day of polling in regard to his job approval, and yet it did nothing for his standing in the election.  That would suggest that the vote is mostly unchangeable at this stage.

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Tossing Axelrod a bone.

BettyRuth on October 29, 2012 at 2:36 PM

No news is good news… for Obama, that is.

digitalhap on October 29, 2012 at 2:36 PM

Tough to spin a positive for Obama at 5 points behind with 7 days left, but I’m sure somebody will try.

forest on October 29, 2012 at 2:39 PM

How does his approval shoot up like that in one day. Too bad we won’t know if it’ll continue, because Gallup is suspending it’s tracking poll.

changer1701 on October 29, 2012 at 2:43 PM

if you want to look at how the academic left sees this election here’s a couple of websites…short story…like Nate Silver…cakewalk..

Obama!

http://votamatic.org/forecast-detail/

http://election.princeton.edu/

so someone is going to be massively disappointed.

r keller on October 29, 2012 at 2:44 PM

How does Obama’s approval shoot up in one day?

And did anyone see the questions asked of Jay Carney at the press briefing today about the election being canceled and moved because of this storm? Yes, the media is apparently going there.

TarheelBen on October 29, 2012 at 2:50 PM

I’ve said it once before, and I’ll say it again.
LANDSLIDE ROMNEY

WV. Paul on October 29, 2012 at 2:51 PM

Today the 2nd of three bad Obama approval ratings fell off the 3-day approval rating average, but the 1st of three good O approval ratings fell off the 7-day Romney/Obama head-to-head. Also, people won’t say they disapprove as much with a natural disaster occurring.

theperfecteconomist on October 29, 2012 at 2:53 PM

He apparently had a big day of polling in regard to his job approval

Really? Or did a bad day just fall off, Ed?

kerrhome on October 29, 2012 at 2:56 PM

But, The Mess I uh, uh, told us he would make the oceans go down. He must be busy trying to part the red sea, 1st for practice.

WV. Paul on October 29, 2012 at 2:57 PM

Gallup’s approval uses adults and bounces around in unrealistic ways. There is no way Obama’s approval can be 53 one day, 44 days later and then back to 51.

midgeorgian on October 29, 2012 at 2:58 PM

Suggestion for the Green Room:
Can you add counters to show the # of comments for each post, like you do for the Headlines?

22044 on October 29, 2012 at 3:14 PM

Tough to spin a positive for Obama at 5 points behind with 7 days left, but I’m sure somebody will try.

forest on October 29, 2012 at 2:39 PM

They do it by saying “Nate Silver says that Gallup doesn’t have a good track record at predicting” or something. Don’t ask me how. Gallup’s final poll has predicted the winner in all but 2 races in 17 years (Truman/Dewey when they quit polling early, and Carter/Ford after Ford’s late surge). That’s a record of 17-2, I think.

However, we do have to wait for Gallup’s final poll to make an accurate comparison this year.

Missy on October 29, 2012 at 3:17 PM

Suggestion for the Green Room:
Can you add counters to show the # of comments for each post, like you do for the Headlines?

22044 on October 29, 2012 at 3:14 PM

Just merge it into the headlines. Where it belongs.

lorien1973 on October 29, 2012 at 3:20 PM

I’d call it poll noise. You just don’t see movement like that in a single day.

David Marcoe on October 29, 2012 at 3:23 PM

Quick Note: As somebody else already pointed out, Gallop’s approval is all adults, not registered or likely voters, and it bounces around like crazy. Going from All adults to registered typically bounces things towards the Republican side a little bit, ditto when you go from Registered to likely. So fifty one percent on Gallop is actually probably in the 45-47% range.

Basically, its not really a valid comparison when you treat All Adults like Likely Voters.

WolvenOne on October 29, 2012 at 3:26 PM

Gallup uses “Adults” sample for the approval/disapproval numbers and hence total junk…

mnjg on October 29, 2012 at 3:27 PM

Just merge it into the headlines. Where it belongs.

lorien1973 on October 29, 2012 at 3:20 PM

This.

changer1701 on October 29, 2012 at 3:30 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

New ARG national poll has a tied race at 48%. Romney leads independents by 13. Sample is D+6 (was D+7 in 08, even in 04/2010)

Resist We Much on October 29, 2012 at 4:06 PM

Tough to spin a positive for Obama at 5 points behind with 7 days left, but I’m sure somebody will try.

forest on October 29, 2012 at 2:39 PM

The MSM has been calling this a ‘toss up’

hahahahahaha

faraway on October 29, 2012 at 4:39 PM