Green Room

Boston Globe poll: Scott Brown 47, Elizabeth Warren 45

posted at 6:31 pm on October 29, 2012 by

Until today, he’d trailed in every poll taken in October except one, and the pollster responsible for that poll found him down by five in a more recent poll. I thought he was a goner. Not just yet:

The survey indicates Brown holds a razor-thin 45 percent to 43 percent lead over Warren among likely voters, well within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. Brown’s lead evaporates, with 47 percent for each candidate, when voters who are undecided are asked which candidate they are leaning toward.

The poll is a reversal from a September Globe survey that showed Warren ahead 43 percent to 38 percent, as well as several other recent polls that have found Warren with a slight lead. The shift underscores the belief long held by both sides that the race, active for more than a year, would be competitive until the end…

Warren’s popularity has suffered more than Brown’s amid an onslaught of attack ads over her legal work for corporate clients. She was viewed favorably by 49 percent of respondents, compared with 42 percent who viewed her unfavorably. That’s down significantly from last month, when 53 percent offered a favorable opinion and only 36 percent said they viewed her unfavorably.

The Globe speculates that Romney’s improved just enough in the state, from crushing blowout last month (Obama by 27) to semi-respectable double digit defeat now (Obama by 14), that he may be dragging a few Democrats over to Brown’s side with him. Er, okay, but what sort of voters needed Romney’s debate performance to persuade them to vote for Scott Brown? Brown’s spent months positioning himself as a de facto independent while Obama’s painted Romney as the second coming of Barry Goldwater. I suppose there could have been a few Dems who were so reassured by Romney’s star turn in Denver that they feel more comfortable now about the prospect of him working with a GOP senate too, but … I don’t know. That’s a long way for a left-leaning voter to travel after just a few debates. Besides, Romney cut O’s lead in Massachusetts in half immediately after the first debate, but Brown continued to lag a few points behind Warren until today. If he was riding Romney’s coattails somehow, shouldn’t they have moved in sync?

Exit question for Massachusetts voters: Is Brown’s competitiveness more a function of his popularity or Warren’s relative unpopularity? The Globe seems to think it’s the latter, thanks in part to Brown’s persistent attacks on her character. What I wonder, though, is how Mass residents view Romney now, six years removed from his governorship. Is there still any sense of him as the centrist Brown-type moderate that he was when he was first elected, or has that all been wiped away now after six years of campaigning as a (mostly) rock-ribbed national Republican? If the latter, then it’s easy to understand why he’s lagging behind Brown in a blue state. If the former, then I’m more inclined to think Brown’s strength vis-a-vis Mitt comes mainly from facing a much, much weaker opponent.

Update: Just across from ABC:

The campaign for Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., who is in a tightly contested race with a Democratic challenger, Elizabeth Warren, announced that Brown would not be participating in the fourth and final televised Senate debate scheduled to take place on Tuesday night.

“The Scott Brown campaign today announced that out of concern for the hardship faced by people in the path of Hurricane Sandy that he will not be participating in tomorrow’s fourth and final debate,” Brown communications director Colin Reed announced in a prepared statement. “It is simply not appropriate to go forward with a political debate when a disaster strikes. The focus for all of us before, during and after the storm needs to be on emergency response and disaster relief, not campaigns and politics.”

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He’s easily six points ahead AP. Boston Globe poll? That phrase triggers peals of belly laughter all over New England!

dogsoldier on October 29, 2012 at 6:51 PM

Plz plz plz. That woman…..ugh.

Dirt McGirt on October 29, 2012 at 7:05 PM

Poll probably taken with a D+9 just like most of the other “polls”.

kcd on October 29, 2012 at 7:08 PM

D+9 is conservative in massachusetts. I will be surprised if Warren loses. That’s what my experience tells me living in Massachusetts for more than 40 years.

I’m vaguely reminded of Romney’s campaign against Kennedy back in ’94. He was theoretically up a little in the last week or so of that campaign I think. The Democrat leaning of Massachsuetts can’t be overstated. the legislature is routinely over 80% democrat and that is very in line with the electorate.

WashingtonsWake on October 29, 2012 at 7:34 PM

Poll probably taken with a D+9 just like most of the other “polls”.

kcd on October 29, 2012 at 7:08 PM

Um…

Here in Massachusetts, D+9 would be a radically right-wing skewed poll.

The correct number is closer to D+25 — and it’s only that close because 51% of the voters identify as “Independent” (vs. 37% Dem and 12% Repub).

ClintACK on October 29, 2012 at 7:45 PM

What else can I say? What else could I do? Lol!

Bmore on October 29, 2012 at 7:56 PM

What else can I say? What else could I do? Lol!

Bmore on October 29, 2012 at 7:56 PM

Heh!

Bitter Clinger on October 29, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Pocahontas is going to win. It sucks, but what can you do?

mboyle1988 on October 29, 2012 at 10:57 PM

My guess is that Scott Brown is popular among many ‘unenrolled’ voters here in MA, and The Fake Indian mostly among diehard moonbats. I wish Scott hadn’t decided to run as ‘bipartisan’ (i.e. Democrat Lite), because, as Fauxcahontas likes to turn it around, why vote for someone you can’t trust to vote your way? And, contrary to conventional wisdom, I think a conservative as personally appealing as Scott is can win in Massachusetts—because of those 51% independents (thanks ClintACK).

In any case, that’s how Scott decided to position himself, and despite all, I think he can win.

I also think Mitt Romney will do much better here than most people think. My suspicion is that there are a lot of hidden anti-Obama votes, just waiting to be expressed. Enough to turn the state over? Maybe not, but a lot.

MrLynn on October 29, 2012 at 11:00 PM

Pocahontas is going to win. It sucks, but what can you do?

mboyle1988 on October 29, 2012 at 10:57 PM

I think that speaks to the ability of Scott Brown more than anything else. He ran a great campaign to get elected but if his campaign team can’t destroy Elizabeth Warren with all the ammo she’s given them then it should go down as one of the worst in history.

Spliff Menendez on October 30, 2012 at 8:31 AM

I think that speaks to the ability of Scott Brown more than anything else. He ran a great campaign to get elected but if his campaign team can’t destroy Elizabeth Warren with all the ammo she’s given them then it should go down as one of the worst in history.

Spliff Menendez on October 30, 2012 at 8:31 AM

The local TV stations, the Boston Globe and all the socialists in Mass are giving her cover. Brown has brought her record out, advertised her lies especially the fake native American business, heck even real Native Americans came in and called her on it, but the socialists do not care. Any lie or unethical, criminal act is ok as far as they are concerned. As far as the dems are concerned all that matters is their ideology.

Everyone in Mass knows she lied about her ethnicity to get the job at Harvard.

They all know she practiced Law in Mass without a license

They know she represented big businesses and was extremely well paid to crush average people engaged in law suits. One regarding asbestos.

They know about her plagiarized cookbook recipes.

And the dems in Mass do not care. They are a disgraceful, disgusting bunch. A republican that acted the way she has would be hounded by the press.

The only paper here that has been on these things is the Herald.

dogsoldier on October 30, 2012 at 8:47 AM

I thought he was a goner

You must have missed the polls the last time around which all showed him losing by double digits days before the election including the one on the front page of the Boston Globe that showed behind Coakley by 15%

TheBigOldDog on October 30, 2012 at 9:14 AM

They key to winning MA is winning Boston big with big turnout.

The key to winning Boston is Menino and the votes he carries in his pockets like soi many nickles and dimes.

Menino has been in Italy the last few weeks on an extended holiday. Now he’s in the hospital.

I’ll be very surprised if she wins.

TheBigOldDog on October 30, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Never underestimate the ability of the people of Mass. to elect Far-Left extremists. I don’t care if Mass. has to elect Leftist nutjobs for their statewide offices, but why do the rest of us have to live with dishonest fools like Big Chief Warren in the Senate? She speaks with forked tongue.
I wish Mass. would secede. Then they can elect all the whack-jobs they want and it wouldn’t affect the rest of us.

Rogervzv on October 30, 2012 at 10:40 AM

AP, the headline should read 45-43, not 47-45.

Missy on October 30, 2012 at 10:53 AM

I’d really like to see Brown win (despite his critical vote for Dodd-Frank). But 45 – 43 for an incumbent a week from the election just sucks.

Sad face.

Greg Q on October 30, 2012 at 2:01 PM