Boston Globe poll: Scott Brown 47, Elizabeth Warren 45
posted at 6:31 pm on October 29, 2012 by Allahpundit
The survey indicates Brown holds a razor-thin 45 percent to 43 percent lead over Warren among likely voters, well within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. Brown’s lead evaporates, with 47 percent for each candidate, when voters who are undecided are asked which candidate they are leaning toward.
The poll is a reversal from a September Globe survey that showed Warren ahead 43 percent to 38 percent, as well as several other recent polls that have found Warren with a slight lead. The shift underscores the belief long held by both sides that the race, active for more than a year, would be competitive until the end…
Warren’s popularity has suffered more than Brown’s amid an onslaught of attack ads over her legal work for corporate clients. She was viewed favorably by 49 percent of respondents, compared with 42 percent who viewed her unfavorably. That’s down significantly from last month, when 53 percent offered a favorable opinion and only 36 percent said they viewed her unfavorably.
The Globe speculates that Romney’s improved just enough in the state, from crushing blowout last month (Obama by 27) to semi-respectable double digit defeat now (Obama by 14), that he may be dragging a few Democrats over to Brown’s side with him. Er, okay, but what sort of voters needed Romney’s debate performance to persuade them to vote for Scott Brown? Brown’s spent months positioning himself as a de facto independent while Obama’s painted Romney as the second coming of Barry Goldwater. I suppose there could have been a few Dems who were so reassured by Romney’s star turn in Denver that they feel more comfortable now about the prospect of him working with a GOP senate too, but … I don’t know. That’s a long way for a left-leaning voter to travel after just a few debates. Besides, Romney cut O’s lead in Massachusetts in half immediately after the first debate, but Brown continued to lag a few points behind Warren until today. If he was riding Romney’s coattails somehow, shouldn’t they have moved in sync?
Exit question for Massachusetts voters: Is Brown’s competitiveness more a function of his popularity or Warren’s relative unpopularity? The Globe seems to think it’s the latter, thanks in part to Brown’s persistent attacks on her character. What I wonder, though, is how Mass residents view Romney now, six years removed from his governorship. Is there still any sense of him as the centrist Brown-type moderate that he was when he was first elected, or has that all been wiped away now after six years of campaigning as a (mostly) rock-ribbed national Republican? If the latter, then it’s easy to understand why he’s lagging behind Brown in a blue state. If the former, then I’m more inclined to think Brown’s strength vis-a-vis Mitt comes mainly from facing a much, much weaker opponent.
Update: Just across from ABC:
The campaign for Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., who is in a tightly contested race with a Democratic challenger, Elizabeth Warren, announced that Brown would not be participating in the fourth and final televised Senate debate scheduled to take place on Tuesday night.
“The Scott Brown campaign today announced that out of concern for the hardship faced by people in the path of Hurricane Sandy that he will not be participating in tomorrow’s fourth and final debate,” Brown communications director Colin Reed announced in a prepared statement. “It is simply not appropriate to go forward with a political debate when a disaster strikes. The focus for all of us before, during and after the storm needs to be on emergency response and disaster relief, not campaigns and politics.”