Green Room

WaPo: Obama leading in VA if …

posted at 10:15 am on October 28, 2012 by

… Republicans have the worst turnout ever.  Their likely voter sample is only 27% Republican; even in the D+6 2008 election, the electorate was 33% Republican.  In 2009, when Bob McDonnell won the gubernatorial election, the D/R/I was 33/37/30 for an R+4.  Has the electorate in VA swung eight points in the gap away from the GOP since McDonnell’s election?  Today’s VA model of 31/27/35 is rather laughable, and confidence in the topline of an Obama lead at 51/47 should hardly be high.

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