Green Room

WaPo: Obama leading in VA if …

posted at 10:15 am on October 28, 2012 by

… Republicans have the worst turnout ever.  Their likely voter sample is only 27% Republican; even in the D+6 2008 election, the electorate was 33% Republican.  In 2009, when Bob McDonnell won the gubernatorial election, the D/R/I was 33/37/30 for an R+4.  Has the electorate in VA swung eight points in the gap away from the GOP since McDonnell’s election?  Today’s VA model of 31/27/35 is rather laughable, and confidence in the topline of an Obama lead at 51/47 should hardly be high.

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gumby: obama lock!!

wargamer6 on October 28, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Good luck with that bit of alternative reality.

CPT. Charles on October 28, 2012 at 10:29 AM

GOTV VA :)

cmsinaz on October 28, 2012 at 10:36 AM

their model also shows an even split of indelendents.

not likely.

i think therefore va goes romney by 4%.

reliapundit on October 28, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Yeah that’s dealing with reality. I would crawl over broken glass, to vote against the dumbaazz.
In the White House. Hurricane, or not I would vote.

stormridercx4 on October 28, 2012 at 10:37 AM

They have to manufacture a horse race to sell newspaper.

bayview on October 28, 2012 at 10:40 AM

DE LUSIONAL.

As I wrote in another thread the electorate has been steaming since 2009 and taking out their anger on Obama’s surrogates. No poll can accurately measure the pent up frustration and hostility that will be finally unleashed on election day.

It will be EPIC.

dogsoldier on October 28, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Wow, how dizzy is WaPo from that spin?

stukinIL4now on October 28, 2012 at 10:42 AM

c’mon Virginia! show the country that we won’t make the same mistake twice!

kelley in virginia on October 28, 2012 at 10:48 AM

What is the remaining seven percent? 31+27+35=93.

Who is neither republican, democrat OR other in their poll?

Arssanguinus on October 28, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Seeing allot of those in polls this year. D/I/R polls with samples that A: don’t add up to 100 and that B: predict record low numbers of republicans.

Arssanguinus on October 28, 2012 at 11:00 AM

They also changed their national tracking on Friday from D+4 to D+6 in order to get Zero up by…one.

Rational Thought on October 28, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Seriously, which identification do they have oth than d, r, I? -and if there is some mysterious “oth” category that makes up seven percent of the sample, why not list it? Valdosta looks like “if we added it to the democrats number it would look ridiculous, if we added it to the independents it would still help romney, albeit less, so we will just subtract it from republicans recalculate, and hope no one notices its gone?

Arssanguinus on October 28, 2012 at 11:23 AM

Oops. Autocorrect on the iPad can make some strange things come out – don’t know WHAT it corrected to get Valdosta!

Arssanguinus on October 28, 2012 at 11:25 AM

27%? They may as well claim that Republicans have packed up and moved to another state 9 days before the election.

MrX on October 28, 2012 at 11:33 AM

At what point do laws against journalistic malpractice become more important than free speech? If unsecured borders are a low-speed invasion, the LWM is low-speed treason.

321mdl on October 28, 2012 at 11:37 AM

A bogus poll, brought to you by the same people who brought you macaca, it’s not very surprising. I’m not sure what they think it’s going to accomplish, but they have to do what they have to do, I guess.

Do they really think they can make people believe the polls are shifting this fast to Obama? Based on what? What I find humorous is the press isn’t covering Obama and reporting the news they way they would if a Republican were in the White House and he’s still down to a point where they have to gin up a poll. You really have to think that their influence is where it should be for a news organization that has failed in its basic responsibility to its readers.

bflat879 on October 28, 2012 at 12:14 PM

T-U-R-N-O-U-T.

End of story. That’s it in a nutshell.

But the media is going all OBAMA SURGE you wait.

PappyD61 on October 28, 2012 at 12:20 PM

Has the electorate in VA swung eight points in the gap away from the GOP since McDonnell’s election?

No.

If anything, it’s moving towards the GOP.

Let them have their fun. Nov 6th will be sweet.

BacaDog on October 28, 2012 at 12:43 PM

2010 was “Check”.

2012 will be “Checkmate”.

The chess game has been on pause for two years. The game ends on November 6th.

Carnac on October 28, 2012 at 12:53 PM

That looks like a Northern VA sample, not a statewide sample.

Fleuries on October 28, 2012 at 2:57 PM

the hell is this “greenroom” thing anyway?

BrianVII on October 28, 2012 at 3:40 PM

Speaking from the heart of the bluest part of Virginia, there is no way in hell that Republicans are not going to be out there voting against the rat-eared wonder.

Happy Nomad on October 28, 2012 at 4:45 PM

No way the Old Dominion goes blue again! You take that to the bank.

Bob in VA on October 28, 2012 at 6:03 PM

GOTV VA

cmsinaz on October 28, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Don’t worry … we are. The state GOP machine is working Overtime, and we have already beat our best 2008 numbers.

Govgirl on October 28, 2012 at 6:39 PM

This is going to be a tsunami for the republicans. The donk leadership knows this and that’s why these outlandish samples are being used.

I repeat, all of the poll juicing is to keep the bottom of democrat support from falling completely out. If the sane democrats start to see 0bama down 8-10-14 points they will not come out and the down ticket candidates will be crushed.

jukin3 on October 28, 2012 at 7:05 PM