Green Room

PPP Ohio: Obama by Four, D+8 Sample

posted at 9:11 pm on October 28, 2012 by

Obama’s “turned the corner” in Ohio, the Democratic pollster concludes.  Their new numbers show Obama leading relatively comfortably on the economy (!) and netting three points in just one week.  Two major red flags: The D/R/I partisan sample is  43/35/21, or D+8.  Obama won the Buckeye State by 4.5 points in 2008 with a D+7 turnout.  The 2010 Ohio electorate was R+1.  Also, PPP’s data indicates that fully 36 percent of Ohioans have already voted, and that Obama holds a massive lead among this group.  By comparison, just over 25 percent of Ohioans voted early last cycle.  A number of sharp observers have previously pointed out the exaggerated early voting boost that some polls are measuring for Obama, which is skewing the top-line numbers in his favor.  A separate Ohio poll released late last night showed the race knotted at 49 percent.

Recently in the Green Room:

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

So basically the poll is garbage

gophergirl on October 28, 2012 at 9:23 PM

yeah, they also have Obama winning Florida and NC tired.

mrscullen on October 28, 2012 at 9:26 PM

OK, if 2008 was D+7 and 2010 was R+1, how much of that is due to lack of motivation on the part of D voters because it’s not a POTUS race (can’t vote for their MTV star candidate, etc?)

That’s the difference that worries me in all this turnout prediction math. Mid-terms are far more activist-laden then POTUS elections.

Dirt McGirt on October 28, 2012 at 9:29 PM

Well NumbersMunchers called it

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

PPP had some good polls for Rom last week, but expect good O polls this week. This is the weekend for partisan polls to unload on both sides

gophergirl on October 28, 2012 at 9:31 PM

The latest Gravis poll of Ohio coming out also has a D+8 sample but shows Obama up one 50-49.

Zybalto on October 28, 2012 at 9:41 PM

Well NumbersMunchers called it

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

PPP had some good polls for Rom last week, but expect good O polls this week. This is the weekend for partisan polls to unload on both sides

gophergirl on October 28, 2012 at 9:31 PM

NumbersMunchers has a good take on the PPP polling nonsense:

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Bottom line of PPPs OH, FL, NH polls: If Obama gets much better turnout than 08, he will win by less than he did in 08. Think about that.

Yep.

Zybalto on October 28, 2012 at 9:44 PM

Obama leads Romney by 24 points. The poll has a dem +24 spread.

Write Wing on October 28, 2012 at 9:46 PM

The D/R/I partisan sample is 43/35/21, or D+8.

Not only is it D+8, but is short shrifts Independents, who favor Romney. Indys in Ohio were about 30% in 2008 an will likely be higher this time. This poll is a fraud.

forest on October 28, 2012 at 9:46 PM

There’s a reason i don’t pay too much attention to state polls anymore. A large swath of them were wrong in 2008, and this time around even more are likely to be wrong, by sheer virtue of all the unrealistic assumptions having been made.

WolvenOne on October 28, 2012 at 9:50 PM

OK, if 2008 was D+7 and 2010 was R+1, how much of that is due to lack of motivation on the part of D voters because it’s not a POTUS race (can’t vote for their MTV star candidate, etc?)

That’s the difference that worries me in all this turnout prediction math. Mid-terms are far more activist-laden then POTUS elections.

Dirt McGirt on October 28, 2012 at 9:29 PM

Yes, but 2008 was also at the height of Obamamania and there was a shocking lack of enthusiasm from the right about having to pull the lever for John McCain.

The tide has reversed this election. Lots of data to suggest the right is energized and fired up whereas the only place where Obamamania still resides is on MSNBC and over in that cesspool of filth called HuffPo. Almost every poll is showing indies are strong for Romney. Was the opposite in 2008.

Eschelon on October 28, 2012 at 9:57 PM

D+3 is more realistic which puts Romney up by 1.

Wigglesworth on October 28, 2012 at 9:59 PM

Not only is it D+8, but is short shrifts Independents, who favor Romney. Indys in Ohio were about 30% in 2008 an will likely be higher this time. This poll is a fraud.

forest on October 28, 2012 at 9:46 PM

Exactly. I wouldn’t be surprised at a D+5 turnout, but 43% Democratic is a pipe dream. Indies will be much higher and Romney is way, way ahead with them.

Caiwyn on October 28, 2012 at 9:59 PM

Need to be talked off ledge.. Would prefer it if there had been no tease with the Red Debate and Romney was just losing rather than ZOMG! win followed by utter disappointment.

Illinidiva on October 28, 2012 at 10:01 PM

Pollsters keep moving the samples more Democrat (D+) while the results remain the same or move toward Romney. By the middle of next week we will be seeing loads of D+10 polls just to keep the race tied. Magically by next Monday polls will have realistic samples. “See, our polls were accuate the entire time.”

midgeorgian on October 28, 2012 at 10:05 PM

Need to be talked off ledge.. Would prefer it if there had been no tease with the Red Debate and Romney was just losing rather than ZOMG! win followed by utter disappointment.

Illinidiva on October 28, 2012 at 10:01 PM

PPP(D) is seeing things that no other pollsters are seeing, even other pollsters with skewed samples. Reminder this is the group that works with SEIU, Daily Kos, and HCAN. They also had the OMG Walker is collapsing!!!!111!!! poll that had the Barrett only down 3, gaining 4 points in days.

midgeorgian on October 28, 2012 at 10:10 PM

It’s not just D+8. It’s that when you set Dem partisanship into the 40′s, the pollster is basically saying who they think will win because even if Obama gets a low % of indies, he’ll get that 7% to get to 50%. It’s a ridiculous poll.

MrX on October 28, 2012 at 10:11 PM

PPP(D) is seeing things that no other pollsters are seeing, even other pollsters with skewed samples. Reminder this is the group that works with SEIU, Daily Kos, and HCAN. They also had the OMG Walker is collapsing!!!!111!!! poll that had the Barrett only down 3, gaining 4 points in days.

midgeorgian on October 28, 2012 at 10:10 PM

Still concerned that Romney isn’t ahead. But Ohio will probably follow the U.S. national results. Would prefer to be in the same place as we are in FL and VA. I just want this election to be over with.

Illinidiva on October 28, 2012 at 10:17 PM

OK, if 2008 was D+7 and 2010 was R+1, how much of that is due to lack of motivation on the part of D voters because it’s not a POTUS race (can’t vote for their MTV star candidate, etc?)

That’s the difference that worries me in all this turnout prediction math. Mid-terms are far more activist-laden then POTUS elections.

Dirt McGirt on October 28, 2012 at 9:29 PM

Actually, the opposite is true…POTUS elections bring out the respective party bases moreso than midterms.

The bottom line is that to expect ’08 turnout in ’12 is really a stretch. Metric after metric, from Ras and Gallup party ID #s to polling on enthusiasm itself, shows that is extremely unlikely.

changer1701 on October 28, 2012 at 10:21 PM

Would any polling analyst or media member take a polling group that worked with the NRA or FreeRepublic seriously? The answer is no, they would call it push polling. PPP is nothing but a push-polling firm, everything they do is to push a narrative.

midgeorgian on October 28, 2012 at 10:23 PM

lso, PPP’s data indicates that fully 36 percent of Ohioans have already voted, and that Obama holds a massive lead among this group.

2 points:

1. According to the Ohio Secretary of State’s office, only about 20% of the registered voters have voted early.

2. Early votes cast either or in person are not counted until Election Day. So, there can be no “lead.”

Resist We Much on October 28, 2012 at 10:23 PM

PPP & A Grain of Salt:

@PPPPolling

Kentucky: Obama 53%, Romney 46%. The Bluegrass State has broken sharply for President Obama in our latest poll.
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite

Gingotts on October 28, 2012 at 10:15 PM

Lolz. McCain won Kentucky by 16.4% in 2008. As I said yesterday, PPP teamed up with HCAN a few days ago to do state polls and their numbers went to pot. HCAN is the SEIU/WF/OFA group that was behind Obamacare and the public option.

Resist We Much on October 28, 2012 at 10:25 PM

The bottom line is that to expect ’08 turnout in ’12 is really a stretch. Metric after metric, from Ras and Gallup party ID #s to polling on enthusiasm itself, shows that is extremely unlikely.

changer1701 on October 28, 2012 at 10:21 PM

And if turnout is anywhere close to what Rasmussen and Gallup are predicting (and both of their party i.d. are historically accurate) this will be a massive landslide.

midgeorgian on October 28, 2012 at 10:27 PM

PPP & A Grain of Salt:

@PPPPolling

Kentucky: Obama 53%, Romney 46%. The Bluegrass State has broken sharply for President Obama in our latest poll.
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite

Gingotts on October 28, 2012 at 10:15 PM

Lolz. McCain won Kentucky by 16.4% in 2008. As I said yesterday, PPP teamed up with HCAN a few days ago to do state polls and their numbers went to pot. HCAN is the SEIU/WF/OFA group that was behind Obamacare and the public option.

You do realize this is a mock twitter account: Partisan Public Polling

joepub on October 28, 2012 at 10:28 PM

What a clown poll! I don’t call them Pissant Push Polls for nothing.

WannabeAnglican on October 28, 2012 at 10:31 PM

You do realize this is a mock twitter account: Partisan Public Polling

joepub on October 28, 2012 at 10:28 PM

That tells you how bad PPP, nobody that doesn’t follow PPPPolling couldn’t tell that it is a spoof.

midgeorgian on October 28, 2012 at 10:31 PM

Lolz. McCain won Kentucky by 16.4% in 2008. As I said yesterday, PPP teamed up with HCAN a few days ago to do state polls and their numbers went to pot. HCAN is the SEIU/WF/OFA group that was behind Obamacare and the public option.

Resist We Much on October 28, 2012 at 10:25 PM

No serious polling group teams up with a partisan outfit like HCAN less than two weeks out from a national election. I trust James Carville’s Democracy Corps more than I trust PPP.

midgeorgian on October 28, 2012 at 10:35 PM

Anecdotal. I live in a Cincinnati suburb. Driving around this weekend, I see very little love for Obama. Indeed, there are some prominent billboards going north on I-75 from the Ohio River to I-275 lauding R2 or demanding that Obama halt his war on coal.

In my Ohio family, you can bank four in-person R2 ballots and three more to come on Election Day.

My clan votes “Phuck You, Obama.”

BuckeyeSam on October 28, 2012 at 10:55 PM

If PPP is right about this then everyone should be in a rush to hire them as a polling outfit in the next election cycle, and there are some people in Obama’s campaign who are never going to work again after they decided to start decamping from North Carolina despite the race being tied there, and to scale back in Florida when they’re clinging to a one point lead in a state Romney must win.

Or PPP’s methodology is just completely screwed.

Where’s Nate Silver to tell me it’s the former?

alchemist19 on October 28, 2012 at 10:57 PM

PPP is putting out all push polls this way to build a meme.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 28, 2012 at 11:09 PM

Where’s Nate Silver to tell me it’s the former?

alchemist19 on October 28, 2012 at 10:57 PM

I’m waiting for Nate to write a “PPP vs. the World” article.

midgeorgian on October 28, 2012 at 11:09 PM

I’m waiting for Nate to write a “PPP vs. the World” article.

midgeorgian on October 28, 2012 at 11:09 PM

I’m sure that very article is being written as we speak. The thing is it he’ll argue it’s PPP that’s right and Gallup and Rasmussen who are just making things up.

alchemist19 on October 28, 2012 at 11:16 PM

Problem is the skewed polls will be cited by the media without qualification and some low information voters will believe them.

bayview on October 28, 2012 at 11:21 PM

Fun fact of the day:

137% of Ohioans have already voted. Obama leads Romney 97 – 3.

Glenn Jericho on October 28, 2012 at 11:21 PM

According to Gallup, the country’s party affiliation went from D+12 (counting leaners) in ’08 to R+3 in ’12.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/158399/2012-electorate-looks-like-2008.aspx
Is there really any good reason to think the swing toward Republican will be any different in Ohio ? The pollsters whom assume there will be the same party split as in 2008 will end up looking very stupid.

topdog on October 28, 2012 at 11:56 PM

Obama is toast… He doesn’t have any Independent strength, none, zero, nada…

2Tru2Tru on October 29, 2012 at 12:15 AM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
WaPo/ABC tracking poll has Romney up 1, 49-48. Sample moved from D+4 Fri to D+6 Sat to D+7 today. Romney up 15 w/ indies.

wargamer6 on October 29, 2012 at 12:26 AM

So this is the new Green Room? Just random people posting their thoughts for comment? Here’s a thought: Shut this down and bring back the old Green Room. It’s never been the same here since since that one guy left.

long_cat on October 29, 2012 at 1:06 AM

One more for everyone re: PPP, their current methodology and how accurate they are.

As a right-thinking individual I do my best to learn from history. Shall we examine PPP’s recent history? Say, take a little peek back less than five months to the Wisconsin recall election?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/governor/wi/wisconsin_governor_recall_election_walker_vs_barrett-3056.html

PPP’s final poll was Walker +3 in a election he won by seven points.

Incidentally you’ll see Marquette University’s polling nailed the recall right on. Their latest poll in Wisconsin is two weeks old and from before Mitt launched his current ad blitz there but it shows a one point race.

alchemist19 on October 29, 2012 at 1:12 AM

My guess with Ohio is a 52-47 Romney due to several tracking spread sheets using data from the SOS and counties.

2012 vs. 2008 Ohio Absentee / early voting requests

Republicans have now passed their 2008 levels while Democrats are down by 137k or more. What early voting shows is a pattern of what election day is like adjusted for the population that is left and what they are leaning to. I think even PPP said those who still have yet to vote are 55-45 Romney.

Ronaldusmax on October 29, 2012 at 3:17 AM

So this is the new Green Room? Just random people posting their thoughts for comment? Here’s a thought: Shut this down and bring back the old Green Room. It’s never been the same here since since that one guy left.

long_cat on October 29, 2012 at 1:06 AM

Guy Benson isn’t some “random” guy — he’s with Townhall.com, which is HotAir’s sister site.

Stoic Patriot on October 29, 2012 at 5:55 AM

I like the new green room set up a lot.

bluegill on October 29, 2012 at 8:14 AM

Why do these pollsters keep lying about early voting? 36% already voted?? Really?? It’s not even half that. It’s so easy to find out. Do they even try to find the truth? So far 1,006,398 have voted early in Ohio. Last year there were a total of 5,773,777 votes cast. That’s 17.4%. All they had to do is check this website to find out.

Capitalist Infidel on October 29, 2012 at 8:31 AM