Green Room

Ohio poll: 49-49

posted at 12:22 am on October 28, 2012 by

Dead heat, with independents split — but Romney ahead by six on the economy.  And then there’s this: “Republicans as a group were more likely to say they were very enthusiastic about the election than Democrats were.”  These results represent a five point swing to the GOP ticket since the last Ohio Newspaper Association survey, taken last month.  Team Romney scrapped three rallies in Virginia tomorrow due to the impending severe weather, and that might be just as well: Mitt will join Paul Ryan on the trail in the Buckeye State instead.

Recently in the Green Room:

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Romney campaign is like Notre Dame football!

EddieC on October 28, 2012 at 12:25 AM

Guess Ohio doesn’t want to stand in the way of a Romney landslide.

BettyRuth on October 28, 2012 at 12:28 AM

I have an eerie premonition that Ohio will need a recount.

Repeat of 2004, in a different state.

Dextrous on October 28, 2012 at 12:33 AM

Dextrous on October 28, 2012 at 12:33 AM

OH will be a game of inches. Recount, litigation, not knowing who really won ’til T-giving — all possible.

Robert_Paulson on October 28, 2012 at 12:35 AM

Oops, meant to say ‘repeat of 2000.’ Time flies.

Dextrous on October 28, 2012 at 12:38 AM

It was weighted to correct sampling biases from the sex of the respondent and the region of residence. It did not weight based on self-identified party affiliation. However, the September poll had proportionately more self-identified Democrats — 48 percent versus 42 percent Republican and 10 percent independent — than the October poll, 47 percent Democrat, 44 percent Republican and 10 percent independent. The customary range in elections is between a five-point Democratic advantage and a five-point Republican one.

I dunno…guys…

DeathtotheSwiss on October 28, 2012 at 12:44 AM

“RANCID STENCH!!!”

— gutmeandpokeyou

fossten on October 28, 2012 at 12:52 AM

Glad to see the GB here stands for Guy Benson and not Gum By.

Still a junk poll really. Sampled hardly any Indies and their split is contrary to just about any other worthwhile poll.

Gingotts on October 28, 2012 at 1:10 AM

Gingotts, it isn’t a junk poll. They actively pushed self-described independents to choose a party ID. This poll nailed the final margin in 2000, 2004 and 2010 (too lazy to look for 2002 and 2006). We shouldn’t compare Romney’s independent margin in this poll to other polls because of the push to choose a party.

mboyle1988 on October 28, 2012 at 4:31 AM

An indy voting for Obama is probably going to id as D and an indy voting for R is probably going to id as R…

Illinidiva on October 28, 2012 at 5:04 AM

Anyone heard from Gumby?

Grace_is_sufficient on October 28, 2012 at 6:32 AM

I know these Polls have margin of error but do they account for a margin of cheating? The Dems are probably shoveling votes into car trunks all over Ohio as we speak.

Uniblogger on October 28, 2012 at 6:51 AM

Romney campaign is like Notre Dame football!

EddieC on October 28, 2012 at 12:25 AM

I was’t aware Romney had a rapist playing Line Backer.

I used to love Notre Dame, but I refuse to root for them as long as Prince Shembo is playing for them.

ninjapirate on October 28, 2012 at 7:59 AM

Somebody get more vans, there are score of Somalis waiting for a ride to the polls /truesarc

Not-a-Marxist on October 28, 2012 at 8:02 AM

If Ohio is this close, we won’t know final Ohio results until November 27th. Not including lawsuits.

Need to win without Ohio. Looking like we will.

Carnac on October 28, 2012 at 8:12 AM

Will UAW members vote what their union bosses call for after the curtain was drawn?

bayview on October 28, 2012 at 8:18 AM

The fact the sample only includes 10% independents in highly suspect as Romney is supposed to be winning that group. Otherwise its a D+3 sample.

Zaggs on October 28, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Dispatch poll is fine.

Has been the more reliable state read for sometime.

budfox on October 28, 2012 at 9:59 AM

“There is a new poll coming out of OH tomorrow.Raquel Pinkbullet on October 27, 2012 at 9:37 PM”

Good, more fun tomorrow!

Another day, another swing state disaster poll for Mitt.

gumbyandpokey on October 27, 2012 at 11:12 PM

Good, more fun tomorrow!

gumbyandpokey on October 27, 2012 at 11:12 PM

Do you remember what happened the last time that you predicted you would have fun the next day?

Actually, the news on Gallup is worse than just the outlier sample falling off. That would have caused an immediate bump for Obama. But this has been a point or two each day, Romney just bleeding support and Obama consistently gaining.

Went from 52-45 to 50-47.

Tomorrow will be fun since Obama will be gaining on Rasmussen, according to Ras himself!

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Gallup returned to a Romney 5-point lead.

Rasmussen went to a Romney 4-point lead.

Good, more fun tomorrow!

Another day, another swing state disaster poll for Mitt.

gumbyandpokey on October 27, 2012 at 11:12 PM

Guess what, RuPoll? It’s tomorrow! The poll was just released. Rather than being “another swing state disaster poll for Mitt, it’s tied. As the newspaper observes, “This is a major change from a similar poll a month ago, when Obama held a 51-46 percent lead over Romney. The reason may be shifts in key parts of the electorate.”

You must be into masochism because you have the strangest definition of “fun” that I have ever seen.

Resist We Much on October 28, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Anyone heard from Gumby?

Grace_is_sufficient on October 28, 2012 at 6:32 AM

He’s had to check back in for stronger meds.

katablog.com on October 28, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Word has it Britt Hume said on Fox this morning that GWU/Politico will show Romney up 5 tomorrow.

Chuck Schick on October 28, 2012 at 10:25 AM