Obama spent a fortune bombarding Ohio with negative ads during the period when Romney couldn’t respond (he was out of funds raised for the primary and couldn’t spend his main fund until after the convention).

Romney is now matching his spending, but Ohioans are getting sick and tired of the campaign and are tuning out the tv ads. In addition, it’s hard to shake a first impression, and Obama did manage to persuade a few percent of Ohioans that Romney would be even worse.

If that’s right, then we could see Romney win the national vote by several percent and still lose Ohio — but if Romney’s really up five points nationally (as I think he is) then he doesn’t need Ohio. Obama’s massive spending advantage in the pre-convention phase of the game didn’t extend to states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota…

My head tells me Romney’s going to win big, but still I worry.

Also, he has a different tone in here. I guess he gets to relax a little in the Greenroom. Maybe he’ll come in and talk to us once in a while.

The Hot Air Greenroom could be like the conservative twitter, but more exclusive. Exclusive of trolls and liberals in general. Hey! That’s a great idea! Part of the terms of use could be that if any of the liberals comments in teh Greenroom, he/she/it is banned!

And GET RID of those facebook comments in headlines.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82948.html

The closing paragraph:

I have always been a believer in data telling me the full story. Truth is, nobody knows what will happen on Election Day. But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.

The “already voted” polling distortion isn’t simple lying. A lot of these voters Barry is relying on think registering was their vote.

Honestly.

That’s why they herd people onto buses, like cattle. College students don’t know F*k aught about voting.

So you get a pollster who asks have you voted, and they think back to registration, assuming it was their vote.

Romney wins, we’ll hear the anecdotes and those will spun into voter suppression plights.

It’s their lives they are trying to save here.. Food on their table and shoes for their kids.

That’d be a perfectly valid exercise, if most states didn’t already keep track of how many early votes have been cast. CNN for example, actually doubled the amount of early votes cast, which GREATLY threw off their numbers.

WolvenOne on October 28, 2012 at 8:21 PM

CNN doesn’t want to hear that people lie in polls if it doesn’t fit their narrative. Did you see the videos from Jimmy Kimmel where people were giving opinion on a debate that hadn’t happened yet? How many people lie to pollsters about whether they voted? Obviously a lot.

While Rasmussen and Gallup have a reputation to keep up, these smaller state polling firms can easily massage the samples to get the result the want, by using unlikely voter turnout models or screening a bad registered voter batch.

Ohio will not be far off the national figures. 40 years of history tells the story. Case closed.

Norwegian on October 28, 2012 at 7:55 PM

I remember in 2008 there were a lot of posters at hotair who were convinced that the polls were wrong and McCain was going to win. Quite honestly I’m perplexed, if Obama is down three points he shouldn’t be up in Ohio, but here we are. If Obama wins election his gotv effort is going to be legendary.

yes, and posting a Romney lead in ohio will in essence proclaim obama loss of the national election; no pollster wants to do that, they know they will get the wrath of axelturf if the do

runner on October 28, 2012 at 5:16 PM

^^^ This ^^^

However, the first one to do it will start the avalanche flowing.

When you HAVE actual votes to compare your numbers to, you should check your numbers and weight them accordingly. Most aren’t, and its throwing off the polls considerably.

Ohio will not be far off the national figures. 40 years of history tells the story. Case closed.

I am no math major but something does not add up with their survey sample in that it adds up to 102

National polls vs. Ohio polls: They can’t both be right

Sure they can. Assume that Romney wins southern states like Texas and Georgia by lopsided (e.g. 78-22) margins, while losing traditionally sold blue states more narrowly (e.g. 53-47), and losing the swing states, including Ohio by margins like we see in the polling of 51-49. Tada.

the bad thing will be the hysterical reaction among the leftists in the press and elsewhere that the election has been ‘stolen’.

the press has revealed a staggering level of stonewalling the bengazhi stuff…so that they have so much skin in the left-wing camp, that they will do/say anything to de-legitimize conservatives.

they did this for 8 years against bush…but if mitt wins it will be worse. How to revive a free press will be a major project over the next decade

For those that cared, I took the liberty of seeing the internals of what I would consider the three “outliers” of the average: Time (Obama +5), CNN/OCP (Obama +4) and WCMH NBC4/SurveyUSA (Obama +3).

Time had a D37/R28/I29/O6 model. Can’t tell if it was all landline or not, but I would be surprised if it wasn’t the case.

CNN/OCP had a D35/R32/I33 model, all interviewed by landline.

WCMH NBC4/SurveyUSA had a D39/R32/I29 model. They also contacted people through landlines and through a pop-up questionnaire on smartphones or other mobile devices.

And for what it’s worth, the survey sample of the Ohio Poll (Obama-Romney tie) had over 1,015 respondents in a D47/R45/I10 model, conducted with landlines AND smartphones.

If you want my gut feeling, I’m siding with the Ohio Poll and Rasmussen who both have it as a virtual tie.

Myron Falwell on October 28, 2012 at 5:22 PM

That Time poll is just flat out humorous! D+9 when the 2010 midterms were, I believe, R+1 in Ohio

The CNN poll looks ok as far as breakdown but they actually have Obama winning Independents by 6% when all other polls have Romney taking Indies by an average of over 10% so there is obviously something wrong with that one.

Once again the Survey USA poll has it D+7 so once again garbage in/garbage out.

Even the Ohio poll undersampled Indies by a bunch and if Romney is leading them by over 10% he would be leading that poll by 2 or 3 points.

yes, and posting a Romney lead in ohio will in essence proclaim obama loss of the national election; no pollster wants to do that, they know they will get the wrath of axelturf if the do

runner on October 28, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Winner winner, chicken dinner.

Really, this is common sense. How plausible is it that a guy who’s now below 47 percent in RCP’s national average is going to win a state that famously tracks with national sentiment each cycle? He’s getting hammered nationally with independents, especially on the core issue of the economy, and yet somehow he’s two points ahead overall in the ultimate bellwether? Really?

For those that cared, I took the liberty of seeing the internals of what I would consider the three “outliers” of the average: Time (Obama +5), CNN/OCP (Obama +4) and WCMH NBC4/SurveyUSA (Obama +3).

Time had a D37/R28/I29/O6 model. Can’t tell if it was all landline or not, but I would be surprised if it wasn’t the case.

CNN/OCP had a D35/R32/I33 model, all interviewed by landline.

WCMH NBC4/SurveyUSA had a D39/R32/I29 model. They also contacted people through landlines and through a pop-up questionnaire on smartphones or other mobile devices.

And for what it’s worth, the survey sample of the Ohio Poll (Obama-Romney tie) had over 1,015 respondents in a D47/R45/I10 model, conducted with landlines AND smartphones.

If you want my gut feeling, I’m siding with the Ohio Poll and Rasmussen who both have it as a virtual tie.

tdpwells on October 28, 2012 at 5:07 PM

LOL!

I think there are some who are fibbing an saying they are indys too. Might be why the indys suddenly shifted toward Obama in a recent poll. I haven;t had time to check to see if any nefarious forces are encouraging Democrats to lie to pollsters.

forest on October 28, 2012 at 4:56 PM

That poll was a CNN poll that had Obama winning indies in their last poll as well.

Now here’s Romney. He’ll probably talk about jobs and stuff. What I want to know, is where are his tax returns?

Night Owl on October 28, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Locked up in the same vault as Obama’s college transcripts and financial aid information showing that he received grants/funding as a foreign student because he lied about being born in Kenya to get a leg up in the admissions process.

Or something.

Fool me twice — shame on ME.

That is what it essentially and succinctly boils down to for each and every single legitimate voter in the entire United States of America.

So why do most Ohio polls show O ahead? Because, says Jordan, there’s some subset of Democrats who are fibbing when asked by pollsters whether they’ve already voted.

I think there are some who are fibbing an saying they are indys too. Might be why the indys suddenly shifted toward Obama in a recent poll. I haven;t had time to check to see if any nefarious forces are encouraging Democrats to lie to pollsters.