Green Room

Romney gained two points in Pennsylvania in two weeks, but…

posted at 12:54 pm on October 27, 2012 by

still trails by six, which is a tad high but otherwise more or less in line with other recent polls. He’s never led there in any poll since becoming the nominee and, apart from a pair that showed him within two points, he’s trailed in all polls by at least three. I’m guessing his internals aren’t much different:

Pennsylvania has missed the brunt of the presidential campaign. The candidates barnstorm in, and pour hundreds of millions of advertising dollars into, the same nine strategic battleground states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

Neither presidential campaign has advertised on Pennsylvania broadcast stations for months. The state has not been on Obama’s travel schedule but for a pair of Philadelphia fund-raisers in June. Romney visited the Union League in Center City and Valley Forge Sept. 28, the first time he had set foot in the state since mid-July – and also the last time he has.

Ohio is Plan A to get to 270 and Wisconsin + New Hampshire/Iowa is Plan B. I guess Pennsylvania or Michigan is Plan C, but if the first two plans fall through, winning with the third would be well nigh miraculous.

Update: Whoops, forgot about the Susquehanna poll that had Romney up by four last week. RCP didn’t pick that one up. So Romney has led in the state, but that’s the only poll I know of where he has.

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cheetah2 on October 27, 2012 at 1:12 PM

And Barry`s still under 50%, a nailbiter? sure but its not 11/6 yet

NY Conservative on October 27, 2012 at 1:15 PM

He’s never led there in any poll since becoming the nominee

Um, not that I put any credence in it, but yeah he has.

Editor on October 27, 2012 at 1:23 PM

I say go for Plans A, B and C. Sweep the board.

TXUS on October 27, 2012 at 1:26 PM

Allah, you’re ignoring the Susquehana poll.

wargamer6 on October 27, 2012 at 1:29 PM

My guess at this point is Romney wins the election, but loses PA in a squeaker where a call can’t be made until the next day.

And in 2016 we’ll be back here again talking about PA: “You know, Romney lost the state in 2012 by only 35,000 votes. He should be able to flip it this time.”

JimLennon on October 27, 2012 at 1:44 PM

I’m beginning to think the only way we steal PA is if Ed Rendell’s “Machiavellian” Team Romney strategy comes to fruition: PA Dems stay home thinking their state is safe, GOP voters turn out in droves because we can’t wait to vote against Obama. And, I think he may be right: Pat Toomey had a very comfortable lead over Sestak going into election day, but the Democrat machinery/cemeteries saw the wave coming and almost pulled off the upset.

OTOH, Tom Smith is in a lot closer striking distance of Casey than Romney is Obama, so maybe they’ve already started ringing the alarm bells. Still, I doubt they’re really sensing panic. Hopefully Sandy causes enough disruptions in Philly that people are too busy with home repairs on election day.

The Count on October 27, 2012 at 2:02 PM

The RCP average of PA is being skewed by the PPP poll. PPP has Obama up 7 but when looking closer at the PPP poll they asked 48% Dems 37% Republican and 15% Independant. An 11% Dem advantage is absurd.

Dennis D on October 27, 2012 at 2:02 PM

If the bullshot polling is like the Ohio bullshot polling, then Romney is ahead.
The state elected Pubbies for Governor, the Senate and both of their state chambers in 2010.

Look at 2010 that’s forgotten in this.

TexasJew on October 27, 2012 at 2:20 PM

I think Plan B is a lock. Minimum 277 by my estimation. Poll sampling is skewing everyone. We will have John Roberts to thank for the GOP turnout.

321mdl on October 27, 2012 at 2:22 PM

The Ohio Pubbies are up 20% above their 2008 absentee numbers, along with a 10% drop in the Dem numbers, with a large increase in Pubbie registration and a strong drop in Dem statewide registrations, and Obama is supposed to keep his entire 4% lead in Ohio over McCain?


TexasJew on October 27, 2012 at 2:24 PM

Let me point out this is a newspaper poll, with probably a loose likely voter screen and a small sample of 600 (subscribers, I wonder?) which tends to favour Obama. Also, from the article:

Yet after all three debates, 43 percent of likely voters in The Inquirer Pennsylvania Poll said they believed that Obama was the overall winner, to 39 percent who thought Romney was. Eight percent considered the debates a tie, and 10 percent say they do not know.

This makes me think that the poll is slightly tilted to the left.

Mitsouko on October 27, 2012 at 3:08 PM

I say go for Plans A, B and C. Sweep the board.
TXUS on October 27, 2012 at 1:26 PM

I like the sound of that. R/R has some $160M, then there’s the RNC and the PACs. With only 9 days left, go for broke. This is the time for everyone to make their final donations. For the survival of the nation the Dems have got to go.

paul1149 on October 27, 2012 at 3:09 PM

Look at 2010 that’s forgotten in this.

TexasJew on October 27, 2012 at 2:20 PM

Glad I’m not the only one mentioning this. D+9 and D+11 is such BS.

dogsoldier on October 27, 2012 at 3:15 PM

So many statisticians. So few facts.

Capitalist Hog on October 27, 2012 at 3:25 PM

“Give PA a chance.” -not Jhon Lennon
Try for Plan A. And work on Plan B also. And try Plan C also, PA & Michigan have not been deluged by O’s negative advertising, so those 2 states, esp PA, may be more amenable than OH to gaining ground from an advertising effort. But it looks like we’re not doing Plan C at all. At least try Plan C instead of oversaturating the other advertising markets lime OH.

anotherJoe on October 27, 2012 at 5:51 PM

Plans A,B, and C, will all come to pass, the only question is whether he can also carry the entire Northeast, save for Vermont, Maryland and D.C. I’d say he’s got about a 60% chance. But then again, I stopped wetting my bed when I was two years old.

ardenenoch on October 27, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Glad I’m not the only one mentioning this. D+9 and D+11 is such BS.

dogsoldier on October 27, 2012 at 3:15 PM

I’m done with polls, and eeyores, and concern trolls.

The fact that the MSM continues to trot out D+7 and above means they know that only a miracle or a crime will alter the unfolding events, and they’re just trying their best to manufacture the former and provide cover for the latter.

I’m in a dark blue state. My mostly blue area was festooned with Obama signs in 2008. In 2010 there just weren’t a lot of signs either way; I don’t think anyone wanted to admit they were pulling the R lever. This year it’s nearly all R&R signs (and lots of down-ticket Rs too), much more than any year prior, and only a smattering of Obama.

The only time we got close to this level of involvement was during a very messy school board election. To have people this whipped up for the R means a lot. We won’t go red, but we may send a bunch more Rs to the House and the Senate than anyone expected.

AJsDaddie on November 2, 2012 at 11:16 PM

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