Green Room

Rasmussen swing-state tracking poll …

posted at 11:25 am on October 27, 2012 by

… has Mitt Romney up 6 points, his highest lead ever in their poll:

In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 51% of the vote to Obama’s 45%.  Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.

Romney has now led for 10 straight days. This is his highest level of support to date in the combined swing states, up five points from a month ago. This survey is conducted on a rolling seven-day basis, and now most of the interviews for today’s update were completed after Monday night’s final presidential debate.

In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.

Their national tracking poll has Romney up four points, 50/46.

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Good post ED

SparkPlug on October 27, 2012 at 11:36 AM

While I find this news as very encouraging, I want to know which states Rass is including here. A good mix of r leaners (MO, NC), o leaners (WI, PA, MI) and true swings (OH, VA, IA)? I feel like the margins in these states can give us more clues.

10 more days! I can tell you living near ground zero (westerville, oh) that things look good. Lots of r signs in the burbs that were much more split in 2008. Rural areas east of I-71 but south of Akron – forget about it. R signs outnumber O signs 5-1 and the enthusiasm is thick. Go bucks!

adurb44 on October 27, 2012 at 11:38 AM

These are the 11 states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Now, I’m no math expert but Rasmussen has Romney up 6 in NC, tied with Obama in Wisconsin and Ohio, down 5 in Pennsylvania, up 2 in Virginia and Up 2 in New Hampshire. Only 1 state is Romney up the 6 points that Rasmussen has as the overall lead in all 11 states. Doesn’t that mean Romney would be blowing Obama away in Colorado, Michigan, and Iowa? Ooops, I believe Romney is up 5 in Florida but still, to reach that +6 he has to be doing really well in those 3 states.

Capitalist Infidel on October 27, 2012 at 11:43 AM

In NC this weekend Obama is running an ad blitz, no Romney ads in comparison.

jp on October 27, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Romney has to win by a margin greater than CHEAT. I like the odds of a win. I’m worried about the margin though. Think Al Franken….

h a p f a t on October 27, 2012 at 11:44 AM

… has Mitt Romney up 6 points, his highest lead ever in their poll:

The key point is the trend. Romney’s lead is holding, and growing. Romney’s momentum hasn’t been exhausted, contrary to what the libs would like to believe. We’ve had the three debates, and Obama is still losing. The trajectory for this thing is set, absent some unforeseen event. (I really hope that Sandy doesn’t give Obama one last chance to con folks into thinking that he is an actual leader.)

ghostwriter on October 27, 2012 at 11:50 AM

In NC this weekend Obama is running an ad blitz, no Romney ads in comparison.

jp on October 27, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Let Barry blow some money in NC, where he has no shot. But then, Barry blows so much, that little extra blow matters little.

bayview on October 27, 2012 at 11:51 AM

What about early voting in Ohio. Is that included in the number or not. I’ve seen stuff saying Obama is up 5 in early voting. Anyone want to put my fears to rest?

magicbeans on October 27, 2012 at 11:52 AM

Romney has to win by a margin greater than CHEAT. I like the odds of a win. I’m worried about the margin though. Think Al Franken….

h a p f a t on October 27, 2012 at 11:44 AM

I think that the margin looks pretty good to me. If Obama has trouble getting past 47 percent in pre-election polling, I have a hard time imagining that he’ll do much better than that on Election Day.

ghostwriter on October 27, 2012 at 11:52 AM

As a stats geek, I don’t get how he can have a bigger lead in swing states than nationally.

Anonimo on October 27, 2012 at 11:54 AM

the broader National polls and swing state polls vs. the Individual State polls

one set is wrong the other is right.

jp on October 27, 2012 at 11:55 AM

If Obama has trouble getting past 47 percent in pre-election polling, I have a hard time imagining that he’ll do much better than that on Election Day.

ghostwriter on October 27, 2012 at 11:52 AM

http://www.humanevents.com/2012/10/26/is-voter-fraud-being-committed-in-ohio/
But all those polls did not include these non English speaking “voters” dredged up by the cheating democrat operatives.

bayview on October 27, 2012 at 11:56 AM

http://www.humanevents.com/2012/10/26/is-voter-fraud-being-committed-in-ohio/
But all those polls did not include these non English speaking “voters” dredged up by the cheating democrat operatives.

bayview on October 27, 2012 at 11:56 AM

It would take an awful lot of cheating to overcome the lead that Romeny seems to be amassing.

ghostwriter on October 27, 2012 at 12:02 PM

Two metrics to look for in order to determine who wins and who loses this election.

Metric 1: Percentage of Obama voters from 2008 who would stay home in 2012.

Metric 2: Percetnage of Obama “White Voters” from 2008 who would switch to Romney in 2012.

For example in Ohio, if only 3% of Obama voters from 2008 stay home in 2012 combined with only 7% of Obama ‘White Voters” from 2008 switching to Romney in 2012 then Obama is certain to lose Ohio.

I am certain that the above would happen and Romney is going to win Ohio and win the elections.

mnjg on October 27, 2012 at 12:03 PM

bayview on October 27, 2012 at 11:56 AM

I saw that article. I’m guess I’m not cynical enough, yet. I KNOW they are going to cheat, and yet the sheer boldness of their actions still stuns me.

4Grace on October 27, 2012 at 12:07 PM

As a stats geek, I don’t get how he can have a bigger lead in swing states than nationally.

Anonimo on October 27, 2012 at 11:54 AM

Probably because Obama is piling up large margins in some of the bigger states, which generally tend to favor Dems. Besides, the difference between the polls is within the margin of error: Romney’s 51 percent in the swing state polls is about the same as the 50 percent that he pulled in the national poll, and Obama’s 45 percent is not significantly different from the 46 perrcent that he scored in the national poll.

On an intuitive level, it seems to make perfect sense to me that a swing state would be more prone to move decisively against a failed incumbent.

ghostwriter on October 27, 2012 at 12:08 PM

It would take an awful lot of cheating to overcome the lead that Romeny seems to be amassing.

ghostwriter on October 27, 2012 at 12:02 PM

I sure hope Romney has a large enough margin in Ohio to counter the cheating in Cleveland and Cincinnati.

bayview on October 27, 2012 at 12:11 PM

mnjg on October 27, 2012 at 12:03 PM

I’m with you on this but do you or anyone else know whether whatever officer in charge of elections in OH is an R or a D? What about the state’s AG?

Drudge is linking a report that the Ds are busing thousands of Somalis to the polls there for early voting.

TXUS on October 27, 2012 at 12:12 PM

4Grace on October 27, 2012 at 12:07 PM

According to the Somali Community Association of Ohio’s web site, over 45,000 Somalis live in Ohio. Only 40 percent have become citizens of the United States, and only 25 percent speak English well enough to get a job.

Wonder where those 75% get money to live on.

bayview on October 27, 2012 at 12:13 PM

What about early voting in Ohio. Is that included in the number or not. I’ve seen stuff saying Obama is up 5 in early voting. Anyone want to put my fears to rest?

magicbeans on October 27, 2012 at 11:52 AM

I read that the liberal polls (CNN etc) have overweighted the number of early voters in Ohio and say that 1.4M have voted, Dems more than Reps but really only 1M early voters have cast their ballots. But even if u do the math with all voters Mitt is squeaking out a win. Mitt should win by 1 or 2% in Ohio… but we may not know about Ohio until days after the election because they have to count the provisional ballotsd by hand to make sure people havaen’t both early voted and then voted again at the polls on Tues Nov 6.

gracie on October 27, 2012 at 12:16 PM

magicbeans on October 27, 2012 at 11:52 AM

2 things: first, dems almost always lead in early voting. that’s just how it is. but obama’s early vote lead was way bigger in 08. so that’s a good sign.

but the huge untold story that i see is that all polls including rasmussen assume a Dem +3 or worse model. Yet Rasmussen’s own numbers and Gallups regarding voter affiliation show that party ID is now Rep+1 and if you include leaners, Rep+3. so using the lesser number of R+1, that’s a 4 pt swing to romney. 2010 was about even. i see 2012 as the biggest wave ever of tea party and like minded voters…the climax of our 3 yr movement to stop obamunism.

phillysfinest on October 27, 2012 at 12:20 PM

but we may not know about Ohio until days after the election because they have to count the provisional ballotsd by hand to make sure people havaen’t both early voted and then voted again at the polls on Tues Nov 6.

gracie on October 27, 2012 at 12:16 PM

Anyone caught attempting to vote twice should be prosecuted and punished to the fullest extent of the law.

bayview on October 27, 2012 at 12:21 PM

phillysfinest on October 27, 2012 at 12:20 PM

The Gallup Survey released yesterday and Rasmussen’s own numbers are huge IMO, and I don’t know why there is not more discussion on them.

Rasmussen has been using D +3-5 samples in their national poll. There has never been in modern times an R+ anything Presidential electorate is why they are all assuming the numbers can’t be accurate.

jp on October 27, 2012 at 12:25 PM

Is the swing state polling a seven day track versus a three day track for the national? Otherwise, the swing state poll would have a lot less interviews and thus a wider margin of error. My thinking that if there is a conflict between the three polls assume the national is more accurate than the swing and the single state polls with a larger group of interviews in one state more predictive than either of the former two. Thus if swing poll is six, national is four and WI and OH polls are even, I would bet on the state polls that say WI and OH are even.

KW64 on October 27, 2012 at 12:25 PM

But but but but but…Intrade.

/[least favorite libtard's name here]

Left Coast Right Mind on October 27, 2012 at 12:32 PM

What about early voting in Ohio. Is that included in the number or not. I’ve seen stuff saying Obama is up 5 in early voting. Anyone want to put my fears to rest?

magicbeans on October 27, 2012 at 11:52 AM

Obama won early votes by something like 20 points in 2008 while McCain won election day votes narrowly. That’s pretty good for Romney.

I read that the liberal polls (CNN etc) have overweighted the number of early voters in Ohio and say that 1.4M have voted, Dems more than Reps but really only 1M early voters have cast their ballots. But even if u do the math with all voters Mitt is squeaking out a win. Mitt should win by 1 or 2% in Ohio… but we may not know about Ohio until days after the election because they have to count the provisional ballotsd by hand to make sure people havaen’t both early voted and then voted again at the polls on Tues Nov 6.

gracie on October 27, 2012 at 12:16 PM

CNN estimated 2.1 million early voters goind Obama by 21 points. The 1.4 million is roughly the number of absentee ballots that will be returned, 1 million is how many have already been returned.

jarodea on October 27, 2012 at 12:45 PM

What about early voting in Ohio. Is that included in the number or not. I’ve seen stuff saying Obama is up 5 in early voting. Anyone want to put my fears to rest?

magicbeans on October 27, 2012 at 11:52 AM

I’ll put your fears to rest: Obama is strongly pushing early voting in Ohio. Romney is not. I’m actually surprised that Obama is only up 5, if what you say is true. I would have suspected more than that. But if it’s only 5, nothing to worry about. Most of the early voters are people who would have voted a certain way anyway, and often these are college students. Older people, who will go for Romney, will vote on election day. The only concern I have with early voting is some people voting twice.

Mullaney on October 27, 2012 at 12:50 PM

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82948.html
Obama’s fuzzy Ohio early vote math.

bayview on October 27, 2012 at 12:51 PM

I’ll put your fears to rest: Obama is strongly pushing early voting in Ohio. Romney is not. I’m actually surprised that Obama is only up 5, if what you say is true. I would have suspected more than that. But if it’s only 5, nothing to worry about. Most of the early voters are people who would have voted a certain way anyway, and often these are college students. Older people, who will go for Romney, will vote on election day. The only concern I have with early voting is some people voting twice.

Mullaney on October 27, 2012 at 12:50 PM

Romney is pushing early voting, I’ve gotten 2 calls about it. The main difference is Romney is focusing on right leaning indies who might not vote and encouraging them to vote early to make it easy. Obama is trying to get his core supporters who will vote regardless to vote early.

There is no concern about double voting, early votes received before election day have their voter crossed off so they can’t vote on election day. Early votes received after election day are checked against election day voters.

jarodea on October 27, 2012 at 12:57 PM

What about early voting in Ohio. Is that included in the number or not. I’ve seen stuff saying Obama is up 5 in early voting. Anyone want to put my fears to rest?

magicbeans on October 27, 2012 at 11:52 AM

One caveat on early voting in-person and absentee ballots that should be remembered and is ignored by pollsters/pundits:

While we know WHO is casting votes, we do not know for WHOM those votes were cast. Votes cast early in person will be counted on Election Day. Absentee ballots are not opened until Election Day and then are only opened and counted if mathematically necessary. The truth is that NO ONE KNOWS what the vote is in any of the states today.

I think that we can safely say that 85-90% of voters in each Party will go vote for their candidate, but there will be crossovers. Since Romney is doing better with conservatives, independents, and liberals than McCain did and Obama is doing worse with conservatives, independents, and liberals than he did 4 years ago, I think it is safe to say that more Democrats will switch to vote for Romney than Republicans switching to vote for Obama. That’s just common sense.

It’ll be interesting to see how many of the “votes” the polls are currently counting as Obama’s go to Romney. If the race is close, a 5%-10% peeloff of Democrats by Romney could swing the election in states like Ohio. And, 5%-10% is not unrealistic when you look at the lead that Romney has with white men and the smaller women’s gap.

Resist We Much on October 27, 2012 at 1:02 PM

Gallup today
Romney 51 Barry 46 Romney +5
with 10 days to go.

bayview on October 27, 2012 at 1:04 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏

@NumbersMuncher@AndrewBoucher It’s definitely way more likely than Dems getting near their 2008 advantage. That’s what should scare Obama to no end.

NumbersMuncher

‏@NumbersMuncher If you think that these national polls with Romney trending upward won’t translate to OH: Last 9 elections GOP outperforms nat’l vote in OH.

NumbersMuncher ‏

@NumbersMuncher Only polls in last week w/ Obama tied/leading have Dems w/ 6+ turnout advantage (08 was 7). Gallup says it will be R+1. pic.twitter.com/NinTsKnl

NumbersMuncher ‏

@NumbersMuncher Rasmussen swing state poll (7-day) has Romney +6, 51-45. Rom up 15 w/ independents. It’s Romney’s biggest lead (6%) and day (51%) yet.

NumbersMuncher

‏@NumbersMuncher Romney’s lead with independents in last seven national polls to give that indy #s: 15.4. Seems high, but trends keep moving up.

NumbersMuncher

‏@NumbersMuncher Updated chart of Romneys lead, lead w/ indies and Dem party ID advantage. Obama’s only leads w/ indies are two oldest. pic.twitter.com/eKJzEpTq

NumbersMuncher ‏

@NumbersMuncher Rasmussen daily has Obama’s approval down to 47-52. Follows Gallup in dropping approval.

NumbersMuncher ‏

@NumbersMuncher Rasmussen has Romney up 4, 50-46 today. Romney up 23 points among independents. D+4 sample.

Resist We Much on October 27, 2012 at 1:09 PM

NumbersMuncher

‏@NumbersMuncher With PPP tracking updated, Romney is up average .8 overall, leads indys by 10.8 and Democrat advantage is 4.6. Lining up nicely for Romney.

NumbersMuncher ‏

‏@NumbersMuncher Take out CNN and Rasmussen OH polls and Romney leads indys on avg by 13.4 and is down on avg 2.3 with a turnout that is 2.8 more than 08(!).

NumbersMuncher

‏@NumbersMuncher@JayCostTWS Exactly.. and I don’t know why everyone assumes this year is going to be better. Romney winning indys on avg by 10+ yet losing?!

NumbersMuncher ‏

@NumbersMuncher PPP daily tracker stays tied at 48%, but sample moved from D+4 to D+6. As such, Romney grew his lead with independents from 10 to 12%.

NumbersMuncher ‏

@NumbersMuncher As I’ve said all along- if O can beat 08 turnout he will win, but he won’t. If turnout is halfway between 04 and 08 (even), Romney wins big.

NumbersMuncher

‏@NumbersMuncher@baseballcrank Umm… I would think you’re right. His split in OH is 39R/38D/23I… so that makes a lot of sense.Wish that was broken down.

NumbersMuncher ‏

@NumbersMuncher Great point from @baseballcrank re:Ras OH & indy. Ras has only 23% ind in OH, so he probably leans indys into Rs/Ds. Leaves CNN all alone..

NumbersMuncher

‏@NumbersMuncher Polls in RCP avg of Ohio in 04 in same timeframe as now had Kerry +.7 and he lost by 2.1. And that’s without oversampling of early voters…

NumbersMuncher ‏

@NumbersMuncher In current nat’l polls Romney is +10.6 with indys. In Ohio its R+10.4. If Ohio was going to be far off from nat’l, you’d see a drop w/indys.

NumbersMuncher ‏

@NumbersMuncher@OrwellForce Yup. I’m nervous about Ohio, but everyone should be. I just don’t see how the polls can be right vs all other elements. R wins.

NumbersMuncher ‏

@NumbersMuncher@DLoesch Incumbents at 45% do not usually end up so well either…

Resist We Much on October 27, 2012 at 1:10 PM

Gallup today
Romney 51 Barry 46 Romney +5
with 10 days to go.

bayview on October 27, 2012 at 1:04 PM

More Gallup:

Obama approval: 46 (-2)
Obama disapproval: 49 (+2)

There’s a term for Presidents with approval ratings at 46%: “Former Presidents.”

Resist We Much on October 27, 2012 at 1:13 PM

Resist We Much on October 27, 2012 at 1:13 PM

It can also stands for : Failed President.

bayview on October 27, 2012 at 1:16 PM

adurb44 on October 27, 2012 at 11:38 AM

Please friends in Ohio (and Wisconsin)do everything you can to deliver your respective states!

Donald Draper on October 27, 2012 at 1:25 PM

I really have a hard time understanding how IBD could be getting such consistent results for several days, considering that they have a larger margin of error than either Gallup or Rasmussen. It makes no sense… http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx

ghostwriter on October 27, 2012 at 1:34 PM

I think it’s time to take some of those swing states into the red column and replace them with PA, MI and WI.

321mdl on October 27, 2012 at 2:23 PM

More Gallup:

Obama approval: 46 (-2)
Obama disapproval: 49 (+2)

There’s a term for Presidents with approval ratings at 46%: “Former Presidents.”

Resist We Much on October 27, 2012 at 1:13 PM

But but but, Intrade. And there’s an Ohio poll where Romney is losing indies. And IDB/Tipp still has Obama up. Also, can’t wait for tomorrow, new polls, will be fun!

/gumby

jarodea on October 27, 2012 at 2:39 PM

But but but, Intrade. And there’s an Ohio poll where Romney is losing indies. And IDB/Tipp still has Obama up. Also, can’t wait for tomorrow, new polls, will be fun!

/gumby

jarodea on October 27, 2012 at 2:39 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhRUe-gz690

ghostwriter on October 27, 2012 at 2:58 PM

I’m with you on this but do you or anyone else know whether whatever officer in charge of elections in OH is an R or a D? What about the state’s AG?

Drudge is linking a report that the Ds are busing thousands of Somalis to the polls there for early voting.

TXUS on October 27, 2012 at 12:12 PM

Both the SOS and AG are Republican.

buckichick1 on October 27, 2012 at 4:17 PM