Green Room

Gallup tracking shows Romney steady at +5, but …

posted at 1:27 pm on October 27, 2012 by

… the news gets worse for Obama among registered voters.  The head-to-head LV is 51/46 Romney, but Obama’s lead is gone among RVs, which are tied at 48.  And if that wasn’t bad enough, his approval rating among RVs has dropped to 46/49, a one-day shift from 48/47.

And look at what has happened to that approval rating over the last two days:

Looks like a collapse brewing, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this was related to Benghazi, the increasing shrillness and pettiness of Obama’s campaign rhetoric, or both.

Update (AP): To follow up on Ed’s point, you’re well advised to have a look at Gallup’s job approval tracker over time. Except for a blip in mid-September, O’s job rating hasn’t been underwater since the beginning of September, right after the GOP convention. I think Ed’s right that public awareness of Benghazi is catching up to him. Either that, or centrists are starting to tilt towards Romney and this is a sign of abandonment. Certainly fits with the national polls over the last two days.

Update (AP): It’s not just Gallup, either. Check out the late movement in O’s job approval ratings in RCP’s poll average:

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If Romney is 20 ahead among independents, and within a couple with women, why is he only 5 up?

pat on October 27, 2012 at 1:31 PM

Why is EM in the GR?

ParisParamus on October 27, 2012 at 1:31 PM

Looks like a collapse brewing, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this was related to Benghazi, the increasing shrillness and pettiness of Obama’s campaign rhetoric, or both

Yes, “new tone”.

GreatCommunicator on October 27, 2012 at 1:35 PM

Good one Ed. ;)

JackForce on October 27, 2012 at 1:35 PM

Slowly but surely, the libs’ false hopes are getting extinguished. Soon, even Mr. Silver will have to acknowledge what is happening…

ghostwriter on October 27, 2012 at 1:37 PM

Liberals are stupid and delusional. Here is the latest example:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/she-the-people/wp/2012/10/27/obama-as-father-figure/

I can’t believe that this broad is blockheaded enough to try peddling this crap after the “First Time” ad. The appropriate “archtype” for Obama is washed up rock star, still clinging to the past, singing the same old tired songs, and wearing the same old, out-dated clothes from their heyday.

ghostwriter on October 27, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Soon, even Mr. Silver will have to acknowledge what is happening…

Not until at least November 7th…

ClintACK on October 27, 2012 at 1:45 PM

This thread title scared the crap out of me! Don’t ever lead with good news, follow it with a “but” because I thought it was going to be bad!

Mean Ed, just plain mean.

NerwenAldarion on October 27, 2012 at 1:45 PM

I’ve seen pics of “huge” crowds for R/R in Ohio and Nevada but isn’t the DOTUS seeing large crowds as well?

Does this really indicate ANYTHING in the last days of a campaign?

Didn’t Palin/McCain have big crowds that were fired up in the last 10 days of 2008?

I hope it’s true.

Keep it up troops…..Emails/Tweets/Posts on FB/Tumblr/pics on Instagram of visuals/Phone calls/posts on news-sites in swing states/anything you can think of to combat the Obamadrones.

Benghazi?………we need to keep the pressure on and keep calling them out on the outright lies we’re hearing.

What are you hiding Mr. President?

Why didn’t you answer the cries for help from the Americans that were surrounded and fighting to save the Ambassadors’ life?

Why Mr. President?

PappyD61 on October 27, 2012 at 1:46 PM

Between Lloyd, Dionne, and Robinson, you really have to wonder about the standards that the Washington Post applies in selecting columnists.

ghostwriter on October 27, 2012 at 1:47 PM

This thread title scared the crap out of me! Don’t ever lead with good news, follow it with a “but” because I thought it was going to be bad!

Mean Ed, just plain mean.

NerwenAldarion on October 27, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Good point. Ed should change the “but” to “and”.

ghostwriter on October 27, 2012 at 1:47 PM

UNINSTALLING OBAMA…..……………. █████████████▒▒▒ 90% complete.

Jocundus on October 27, 2012 at 1:47 PM

Tomorrow Sunday talkshows will be focused on Benghazi and Fox News will run their special reports. Next week will be the ultimate collapse of the Obama campaign AND the legacy of the Obama administration.

nitzsche on October 27, 2012 at 1:48 PM

I have a hard time believing that our American Idol electorate is paying attention to Benghazi. However, I’ll take any collapse in O’s numbers that I can get.

Kataklysmic on October 27, 2012 at 1:49 PM

Tomorrow Sunday talkshows will be focused on Benghazi and Fox News will run their special reports. Next week will be the ultimate collapse of the Obama campaign AND the legacy of the Obama administration.

nitzsche on October 27, 2012 at 1:48 PM

I suspect that everybody with the exception of Fox will be talking about the horse race and the closing arguments, with nary a peep about Benghazi.

ghostwriter on October 27, 2012 at 1:50 PM

Irrational optimism.

The Fat Lady hasn’t even begun to tune up her pipes.

The polls need to be outside the Margin of Fraud, and they’re not.

Bruno Strozek on October 27, 2012 at 1:54 PM

ED & ALLAH:

Thanks for restoring some of the Headlines! Back up to 8 now. Much appreciated.

4Grace on October 27, 2012 at 1:59 PM

Tomorrow Sunday talkshows will be focused on Benghazi and Fox News will run their special reports. Next week will be the ultimate collapse of the Obama campaign AND the legacy of the Obama administration.

nitzsche on October 27, 2012 at 1:48 PM

The Sunday Talk Show to watch will be those on Nov 11. It is apt that it is Remembrance Day for the failed presidency of Barry, freshly uninstalled.

bayview on October 27, 2012 at 2:01 PM

ED & ALLAH:

Thanks for restoring some of the Headlines! Back up to 8 now. Much appreciated.

4Grace on October 27, 2012 at 1:59 PM

+1

CW on October 27, 2012 at 2:02 PM

Ohio, By The Numbers (Updated 10.27)

M2RB: Van Halen

Resist We Much on October 27, 2012 at 2:04 PM

This thread title scared the crap out of me! Don’t ever lead with good news, follow it with a “but” because I thought it was going to be bad!

Mean Ed, just plain mean.

NerwenAldarion on October 27, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Good point. Ed should change the “but” to “and”.

ghostwriter on October 27, 2012 at 1:47 PM

It’s called clickbait and if you’re the writer then it’s a feature not a bug. :-)

SoRight on October 27, 2012 at 2:04 PM

i think o may be trapped in his own juices. his first debate was not very good….and horrible by the leftist standards.

so the next one he got aggressive…and mitt responded. Finally, the third he was angry condescending and a lying machine.

the left LUV’d barry…barry was Back. So there’s your dem base. Now he’s stuck with the dem base…and thats all

r keller on October 27, 2012 at 2:05 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

That’s 12 days in a row that Romney has been at/above 50% in Gallup. He’s hit 50% for 5 days on Rasmussen. O hasnt been above 47% in either.

Resist We Much on October 27, 2012 at 2:06 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

That’s 12 days in a row that Romney has been at/above 50% in Gallup. He’s hit 50% for 5 days on Rasmussen. O hasnt been above 47% in either.

Resist We Much on October 27, 2012 at 2:06 PM

Thanks for that, RWM. It really shows the consistent pattern/trend. I’m still sweating a couple of states, but things are looking better and better.

4Grace on October 27, 2012 at 2:10 PM

Okay, and if national tracking polls decided who would be president, this would matter.

But they don’t.

We have this system, it’s called the Electoral College.

And right now, the state of Ohio is going to decide who is president in 2013. That’s just how it is. I didn’t invent the damn thing, don’t blame me.

Lets take a look at Ohio statewide polling. Because those are the polls that actually matter when it comes to who’s going to be president.

CNN – +4 Obama
Purple Strategies – +2 Obama
American Research Group – +2 Obama
Rasmussen – Tie
Lake Research Partners – +2 Obama

So it’s a close race, but solidly in favor of obama at this point.

Don’t get cocky, because the electoral college will slap you right back down.

triple on October 27, 2012 at 2:21 PM

Whoa, you used the “c” word, Ed–collapse. So the Romney Tsunami is right on schedule and building?

stukinIL4now on October 27, 2012 at 2:23 PM

Obama going from 53/42 to 46/49 in consecutive 3-day periods is the biggest move ever (positive or negative) of his presidency.

theperfecteconomist on October 27, 2012 at 2:24 PM

Approval rating is practically meaningless as well, when it comes to elections. May I remind you George W. Bush, a two-term president, had an approval rating of 25%, and he was underwater when he got reelected.

triple on October 27, 2012 at 2:25 PM

Slowly but surely, the libs’ false hopes are getting extinguished. Soon, even Mr. Silver will have to acknowledge what is happening…

ghostwriter on October 27, 2012 at 1:37 PM

Given the lengths the Obama campaign tried to go in order to influence Gallup’s polling, there is no doubt they actually are influencing the one “poll” they can (InTrade), which is easily manipulated with a small daily investment.

As for Silver, I lost all respect for him after the 2010 election, where be tried to understate the GOP wave for months, before suddenly changing a ton of predictions late on Election Day (and be STILL managed to hnderstate the final GOP number by a huge margin). He is basically just a tool for Obama at this point to try and prevent panic.

Norwegian on October 27, 2012 at 2:27 PM

triple on October 27, 2012 at 2:21 PM

You might want to look a little closer at the sample size, party breakdown and MOE of those polls, and not just quoting a + whatever for Barry.

bayview on October 27, 2012 at 2:27 PM

Resist – you need to add Stark County.

Canton/North Canton/Massillon

Always has been the bellweather, but maybe not this year because Summit has fallen off a cliff.

budfox on October 27, 2012 at 2:29 PM

I’m just telling you the numbers, bay. I’m not making an ideological argument for anything.

Ohio, as it stands, has a really good chance of deciding this election. That’s a fact and you can go do the math and check that for yourself.

National polls – worthless. Totally worthless. I don’t even know why hotair bothers quoting them. Oh wait, yes I do. Because Obama is ahead in Ohio, which are the only polls that even matter.

triple on October 27, 2012 at 2:29 PM

So it’s a close race, but solidly in favor of obama at this point.

Don’t get cocky, because the electoral college will slap you right back down.

triple on October 27, 2012 at 2:21 PM

Obama’s lead in pretty much all of the polls that you cited are within the margin of error. This means that far from being solidly in the lead, the race is tied, with an incumbent drawing less than 50 percent of the vote. And none of this even touches on the internals of the polls or Romney’s fairly consistent lead among independents.

ghostwriter on October 27, 2012 at 2:31 PM

Silver will never change.

Unless Election Day is a crimson tide, expect Silver to start harping about provisional ballots.

He won’t concede until Obama does, because he has too much to fear from his fellow progs.

If they think he lied to them, his career is over.

budfox on October 27, 2012 at 2:31 PM

Approval rating is practically meaningless as well, when it comes to elections. May I remind you George W. Bush, a two-term president, had an approval rating of 25%, and he was underwater when he got reelected.

triple on October 27, 2012 at 2:25 PM

Prove it.

ghostwriter on October 27, 2012 at 2:32 PM

Approval rating is practically meaningless as well, when it comes to elections. May I remind you George W. Bush, a two-term president, had an approval rating of 25%, and he was underwater when he got reelected.

triple on October 27, 2012 at 2:25 PM

Nice try. Here’s Gallup’s approval measure for GWB. He was in the high 40s and low 50s throughout all of 2004, and at this time in his re-election cycle he was at 51%. His approval didn’t hit the 20s for another 3 years. He was NOT underwater when he won re-election.

So, in shorthand, regarding your three points above:

Wrong
Wrong
Wrong

Even shorter? Zero’s re-election prospects suck more than GWB’s did.

Rational Thought on October 27, 2012 at 2:38 PM

Given the lengths the Obama campaign tried to go in order to influence Gallup’s polling, there is no doubt they actually are influencing the one “poll” they can (InTrade), which is easily manipulated with a small daily investment.

As for Silver, I lost all respect for him after the 2010 election, where be tried to understate the GOP wave for months, before suddenly changing a ton of predictions late on Election Day (and be STILL managed to hnderstate the final GOP number by a huge margin). He is basically just a tool for Obama at this point to try and prevent panic.

Norwegian on October 27, 2012 at 2:27 PM

I always thought that Silver was ovrerated. I don’t follow him that closely, but from what I gather, right now his 70-percent likelihood that Obama will prevail boils down to a 70-percent likelihood that Obama will win the race in Ohio, which is essentially tied 10 days away from Election Day. This strikes me as wishful thinking, at best. I would call that race essentially even, and make Romney a slight favorite in Ohio (say, 3 to 2 odds).

ghostwriter on October 27, 2012 at 2:40 PM

triple on October 27, 2012 at 2:21 PM

Barring Columbus Somali’s and spontaneously generated college students…

The state is an even split, with less than 200K making the decision.

What Obama is banking on, is all Early Repub votes are cannibalizing same-day voters.

But, as was pointed out in a recent piece, Obama’s early voters are the high-attention raters, and the Repub ones are more unreliable voters.

So Obama needs a flood of early/absentee non-’08 voters this week to offset the election-day voters, who are going to be a tidal wave of red, because voting on election day is a patriotic tradition.

As Resist said, even McCain won on actual Election Day votes.

Couple in population shift and voter roll purge, and we’re down to -200K suburban voters deciding the whole thing.

And if Romney/Ryan can draw another 10K, in North Canton, on a High School Football Friday Night, outside in the high-40′s with wind and rain, that’s rock solid in the exact demo area they need to carry the state.

budfox on October 27, 2012 at 2:46 PM

Nate Silver. Was he the with one hit wonder “Fly, Robin, Fly”?

bayview on October 27, 2012 at 2:47 PM

ED & ALLAH:

Thanks for restoring some of the Headlines! Back up to 8 now. Much appreciated.

4Grace on October 27, 2012 at 1:59 PM

ditto

davidk on October 27, 2012 at 2:51 PM

triple on October 27, 2012 at 2:21 PM

You might want to look a little closer at the sample size, party breakdown and MOE of those polls, and not just quoting a + whatever for Barry.

bayview on October 27, 2012 at 2:27 PM

This.
For the last week or so, I’ve been seeing msnbc touting polls that seem a little, uhm, outlier-ish?
“Obama up by SIX in Florida according to the
latest Hank’s Hardware poll.”
Obama leads Romney in Ohio by FIVE acccording to the
latest Lower Cincinnatti Community College poll.”
etc., etc.

mrt721 on October 27, 2012 at 2:51 PM

I am praying and praying.

thanks Resist for add’l info.

Ed and Allah…thanks for restoring some of the headlines on the mainpage. Appreciate it.

CoffeeLover on October 27, 2012 at 2:51 PM

Nice try. Here’s Gallup’s approval measure for GWB. He was in the high 40s and low 50s throughout all of 2004, and at this time in his re-election cycle he was at 51%. His approval didn’t hit the 20s for another 3 years. He was NOT underwater when he won re-election.

So, in shorthand, regarding your three points above:

Wrong
Wrong
Wrong

Even shorter? Zero’s re-election prospects suck more than GWB’s did.

Rational Thought on October 27, 2012 at 2:38 PM

You’re much nicer about it than I was! :)

ghostwriter on October 27, 2012 at 2:52 PM

ED & ALLAH:

Thanks for restoring some of the Headlines! Back up to 8 now. Much appreciated.

4Grace on October 27, 2012 at 1:59 PM

Cosigned.

jarodea on October 27, 2012 at 2:54 PM

Silver will never change.

Unless Election Day is a crimson tide, expect Silver to start harping about provisional ballots.

He won’t concede until Obama does, because he has too much to fear from his fellow progs.

If they think he lied to them, his career is over.

budfox on October 27, 2012 at 2:31 PM

He probably has been getting played by the Obama people, who are feeding him phony internal polls that show Obama solidly in the lead. Obviously, this theory is just speculation on my part, but it is the most plausible explanation for Silver’s seeming irrational exuberance about Obama’s prospects in Ohio.

ghostwriter on October 27, 2012 at 2:57 PM

And if Romney/Ryan can draw another 10K, in North Canton, on a High School Football Friday Night, outside in the high-40′s with wind and rain, that’s rock solid in the exact demo area they need to carry the state.

budfox on October 27, 2012 at 2:46 PM

Seriously, I lived in North Canton last year and live north of Akron now and it is insane how crazy Canton is about football. I get it, Canton-McKinley is one of the best football teams in Ohio and other than vacuum manufacturing returning to the old Hoover factory in North Canton and oil/gas production it’s all Canton has. Still annoying to live north of Akron and have my friday night talk radio dominated by Canton-McKinley or Hoover High football games.

jarodea on October 27, 2012 at 2:58 PM

triple on October 27, 2012 at 2:29 PM

And most of the Ohio polls you quote are junk anyway. For example, the Purple Strategies poll has Republicans at 27% of the electorate. If you believe that’s accurate, you’re either horrible ill-informed or just insane…

PetecminMd on October 27, 2012 at 2:59 PM

Comment pages: 1 2