Green Room

Gallup tracking shows Romney steady at +5, but …

posted at 1:27 pm on October 27, 2012 by

… the news gets worse for Obama among registered voters.  The head-to-head LV is 51/46 Romney, but Obama’s lead is gone among RVs, which are tied at 48.  And if that wasn’t bad enough, his approval rating among RVs has dropped to 46/49, a one-day shift from 48/47.

And look at what has happened to that approval rating over the last two days:

Looks like a collapse brewing, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this was related to Benghazi, the increasing shrillness and pettiness of Obama’s campaign rhetoric, or both.

Update (AP): To follow up on Ed’s point, you’re well advised to have a look at Gallup’s job approval tracker over time. Except for a blip in mid-September, O’s job rating hasn’t been underwater since the beginning of September, right after the GOP convention. I think Ed’s right that public awareness of Benghazi is catching up to him. Either that, or centrists are starting to tilt towards Romney and this is a sign of abandonment. Certainly fits with the national polls over the last two days.

Update (AP): It’s not just Gallup, either. Check out the late movement in O’s job approval ratings in RCP’s poll average:

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Comment pages: 1 2

It’s called clickbait and if you’re the writer then it’s a feature not a bug.

SoRight on October 27, 2012 at 2:04 PM

I knew that, I’m just pointing out that Ed is not helping with my blood pressure today LOL

NerwenAldarion on October 27, 2012 at 3:10 PM

Libya and labia

Wigglesworth on October 27, 2012 at 3:25 PM

Pwndbama

29Victor on October 27, 2012 at 3:30 PM

I saw what you did there, a teaser. Nice.

hestrold on October 27, 2012 at 3:35 PM

Even shorter? Zero’s re-election prospects suck more than GWB’s did.

Rational Thought on October 27, 2012 at 2:38 PM

Well done. For the life of me, why would someone post so authoritatively about something that can be so easily checked? How dishonest, and to claim political neutrality–a longstanding Leftie tactic.

Make no mistake, the Gallup has the Lefties going batsheet, especially the WH and MSM.

The only thing we have to fear at this point re Ohio is fraud, which stories are beginning to crop up on. Poll watchers, please be vigilant and have the balls to challenge or question suspicious activity. Have recording devices handy.

RepubChica on October 27, 2012 at 3:38 PM

Approval rating is practically meaningless as well, when it comes to elections. May I remind you George W. Bush, a two-term president, had an approval rating of 25%, and he was underwater when he got reelected.

triple on October 27, 2012 at 2:25 PM

LMFAO! He didn’t have a 25% approval rating at any point in his first term.

Resist We Much on October 27, 2012 at 3:52 PM

The last poll before 2004 election was 48/47. So he wasn’t underwater, but he was up to his shoulders. A few tracking polls before that (oct 11-14) he was underwater 48-49.

His worst approval rating was 25%, the week Obama got elected.

Right now O’s approval is 48/48 (per Ed’s graphic) and that’s exactly where it was for W when he got reelected. Look it up. So this is not impossible to pull off by any means, and last I checked we didn’t elect presidents based on approval rating anyway.

The gallup polls, as one commenter stated, are not making liberals go nuts. I’m a little puzzled, to be honest, as to why you believe it matters beyond bragging rights.

What I care about is, can obama get reelected? Who’s going to win? That means, you take a look at the ohio polls. It’s literally the only thing that matters. If obama starts dipping there, then I’m worried.

triple on October 27, 2012 at 4:15 PM

Oh and before anyone starts questioning my analysis? I was the guy saying Romney is going to win it all back when Cain was hot. No one believed me. Oh he’s a Massachusetts RINO, they said. Look at em now, think they changed their tune?

triple on October 27, 2012 at 4:17 PM

The last poll before 2004 election was 48/47. So he wasn’t underwater, but he was up to his shoulders. A few tracking polls before that (oct 11-14) he was underwater 48-49.

His worst approval rating was 25%, the week Obama got elected.

Right now O’s approval is 48/48 (per Ed’s graphic) and that’s exactly where it was for W when he got reelected. Look it up. So this is not impossible to pull off by any means, and last I checked we didn’t elect presidents based on approval rating anyway.

The gallup polls, as one commenter stated, are not making liberals go nuts. I’m a little puzzled, to be honest, as to why you believe it matters beyond bragging rights.

What I care about is, can obama get reelected? Who’s going to win? That means, you take a look at the ohio polls. It’s literally the only thing that matters. If obama starts dipping there, then I’m worried.

triple on October 27, 2012 at 4:15 PM

Whatever. It seems to me that you have 10 days to get used to the idea that Mitt Romney is likely going to be the next president of the United States.

ghostwriter on October 27, 2012 at 4:20 PM

I think it’s folly to assume either one will get elected. But what’s for sure is right now, Ohio is where you look to forecast this sort of thing.

triple on October 27, 2012 at 4:23 PM

Things going for Romney in Ohio

Ohio leans slightly republican.
He has plenty of surrogates who ran statewide races in recently .
Obama’s war on coal.
early voting is screwing up likely voting polls.

TimeTraveler on October 27, 2012 at 4:41 PM

If obama starts dipping there, then I’m worried.

triple on October 27, 2012 at 4:15 PM

I thought you didn’t care either way, Mr. Neutral?

Oh and before anyone starts questioning my analysis?

triple on October 27, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Rational didn’t just question your initial posting’s analysis–he obliterated it. Can you just type the words “I was wrong” and be done with it?

RepubChica on October 27, 2012 at 4:56 PM

I think it’s folly to assume either one will get elected.

triple on October 27, 2012 at 4:23 PM

Really? It’s folly to assume that either Barack Obama or Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States?

You’re not very bright.

Resist We Much on October 27, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Hey remember when Nate Silver, that goddamn liberal.. did this?

The accuracy of his November 2008 presidential election predictions—he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states—won Silver further attention and commendation. The only state he missed was Indiana, which went for Barack Obama by 1%. He also correctly predicted the winner of all 35 Senate races that year.

But.. but.. the republican sample, they said..

But.. But.. Mitt Romney was a sure thing, they said..

triple on October 27, 2012 at 5:40 PM

Really? It’s folly to assume that either Barack Obama or Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States?

You’re not very bright.

Well, considering you clearly don’t know the difference between the words “either” and “both”, I’ll let my post stand on it’s own there.

triple on October 27, 2012 at 5:42 PM

Right now O’s approval is 48/48 (per Ed’s graphic) and that’s exactly where it was for W when he got reelected. Look it up. So this is not impossible to pull off by any means, and last I checked we didn’t elect presidents based on approval rating anyway.

The gallup polls, as one commenter stated, are not making liberals go nuts. I’m a little puzzled, to be honest, as to why you believe it matters beyond bragging rights.

What I care about is, can obama get reelected? Who’s going to win? That means, you take a look at the ohio polls. It’s literally the only thing that matters. If obama starts dipping there, then I’m worried.

triple on October 27, 2012 at 4:15 PM

A BIG difference between GWB and 2004, and Zero and today — GWB’s challenger, John Kerry, had low, low, low favorability ratings, averaging 36 fav-43 unfav from late September until the election. Even with approval only in the high 40s, GWB was MORE POPULAR than Kerry throughout the cycle.

Romney’s favorability has now SURPASSED Zero’s. Romney is over 50%, Zero was there for a day or two and has been cratering ever since. Just like with GWB, voters trust Romney more, and now, after birth control, binders, big bird, and BENGHAZI, they LIKE him more, too.

Rational Thought on October 27, 2012 at 5:48 PM

triple on October 27, 2012 at 5:42 PM

Haven’t seen this playtoy in a while.

22044 on October 27, 2012 at 5:52 PM

triple on October 27, 2012 at 5:40 PM

LMAO

Silver also missed the 2010 Midterms by about 100% in terms of how many seats the GOP would gain. Total failure.

Also in 2010; he predicted the Liberal Democrats would GAIN 58 seats in the UK Parliament Election that year. Actual Result? They LOST 5 seats. That’s a miss of about 1000%.

Yeah, Silver has just an awesome track record /sarc

Norwegian on October 27, 2012 at 5:56 PM

That’s another thing. You cherry pick favorable polls. That’s not how you find anything out. That’s how you brag on the internet.

What you need to do is take a look at all the polls of Mitt Romney’s favorability rating, weight them appropriately, and then do the math to see where he really stands. Otherwise you’re subject to noise.

For instance, if I did a measurement (any measurement) that was imperfect, like polling, I’d do it multiple times. A good example of this is the National Hurricane Center running multiple simulations of Sandy to figure out the path, since one simulation will disagree with the next, but then you do the math and figure out where its most likely to hit. It’s the same thing with politics.

Thankfully, there are websites on the net that do this math for us.

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/mitt-romney-favorability-us

Mitt stands at 46/44. There you go. But he’s not at 50.

(If you’re wondering, Obama is at 48/48.)

triple on October 27, 2012 at 5:57 PM

Um, Norwegian, you’re talking out your ass.

Nate predicted 34/36 correctly in the senate. He predicted a republican gain of 7 and they gained 6.

For the house, he admitted the “confidence level” was wide-ranging due to the fact that house races are simply unpredictable.

Our model also thinks the spread of potential outcomes is exceptionally wide: its 95 percent confidence interval runs from a 23-seat Republican gain to an 81-seat one

He predicted a gain of 55, there was a gain of 63, but even that was still within the “confidence interval” of 95%.

So there you go. Not bad.

But that’s the house. He’s basically 99% right on presidential elections so far, which have more data, far more confidence, and that’s a race where his track record is dead solid.

triple on October 27, 2012 at 6:02 PM

Oh right, and while we’re talking about 2010, he was 36/37 for governorships.

triple on October 27, 2012 at 6:04 PM

triple on October 27, 2012 at 5:57 PM

You’re an idiot. One does not “average” favorability polls. Favorability is what it is at that time. At THIS time, and most likely until the election, Mitt Romney has HIGHER favorability ratings than Zero does. The trend is Romney going up, Zero going down.

Hell, why don’t you just average Zero’s polls from the day he was elected — “My boyfriend has an approval rating of eleventy-gazillion!”

Sheesh. Are you, like, 12?

Rational Thought on October 27, 2012 at 6:08 PM

Well, considering you clearly don’t know the difference between the words “either” and “both”, I’ll let my post stand on it’s own there.

triple on October 27, 2012 at 5:42 PM

Read your post again, triple. You are saying that it is folly to assume that either man will become president. Obviously, one of them will.

Resist We Much on October 27, 2012 at 6:22 PM

Can you assume Obama will become president? No.

Can you assume Romney will become president? No, but that doesn’t stop hot air.

You can’t assume either Obama or Romney will become president. That is a factual statement.

You can assume one of them will become president.

Are we done here?

triple on October 27, 2012 at 6:26 PM

You’re an idiot. One does not “average” favorability polls. Favorability is what it is at that time. At THIS time, and most likely until the election, Mitt Romney has HIGHER favorability ratings than Zero does. The trend is Romney going up, Zero going down.

Hell, why don’t you just average Zero’s polls from the day he was elected — “My boyfriend has an approval rating of eleventy-gazillion!”

Sheesh. Are you, like, 12?

One does not average polls? Weird, because there are a bunch of websites and news organizations doing exactly that. You better tell them it’s impossible before they do it again and destroy the universe.

I’m 28.

triple on October 27, 2012 at 6:28 PM

Why is no one discussing Romney’s poll numbers in Ohio, the only poll numbers that will actually make a difference on election day?

Oh right, you can’t find any favorable numbers. Even Rasmussen is a tie.

triple on October 27, 2012 at 6:30 PM

triple on October 27, 2012 at 6:26 PM

So you find our optimism disturbing on a very deep level?

RepubChica on October 27, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Even Rasmussen is a tie.

triple on October 27, 2012 at 6:30 PM

I like a tie. And being within the margin of error, particularly in regard to the Indie vote trend.

RepubChica on October 27, 2012 at 6:39 PM

Considering all the stories Im seeing on Drudge about military planes with absentee ballots crashing and busloads of Somalis being bussed in by Democrats in Ohio Romneys numbers are going to have to be even greater to counter all this fraud.

neyney on October 27, 2012 at 6:44 PM

neyney on October 27, 2012 at 6:44 PM

Now that’s what I find disturbing on a very deep level.

RepubChica on October 27, 2012 at 7:02 PM

This is for ‘triple’ per request …..

Anyone that thinks the Ohio polls are accurate has not studied them.

For the polls that provide the by-region cross tabs, they are obviously biased wrong.

Time: page 12, south/cincinnati region is 28% of poll which is effectively the south half of the state. They have this region going for Obama 52/41. In fact in 2008 this same region went for McCain almost polar opposite of that. South Ohio is not going Obama +11 this year.

SurveyUSA: tab 1, Cincinnati region is 14%, equivalent to Hamilton county and it’s 3 adjacent counties. They have this region going for Obama 45/40. In 2008 it was McCain 54/44. Cincy area has not swung +15 FOR Obama since then.

In summary, the Ohio polls are wrongly biased and are easily proven to be wrong.

Carnac on October 27, 2012 at 7:32 PM

Comment pages: 1 2