Green Room

Barone’s prediction: Romney wins

posted at 4:31 pm on October 27, 2012 by

A little video Xanax for you via Ed Driscoll in case you’ve been sweating those stubborn Ohio polls. If Barone is with us, who can be against us? Besides Nate Silver, I mean. Click the image to watch.

Recently in the Green Room:

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

thanks I needed that

cmsinaz on October 27, 2012 at 4:48 PM

Thanks for talking me off the ledge. ;o)

kakypat on October 27, 2012 at 4:52 PM

If Barone is with us, who can be against us? Besides Nate Silver, I mean.

LOL

Barone has more integrity in his little pinky than Obama’s little b!tch.

Norwegian on October 27, 2012 at 5:01 PM

But Barone is a Republican.

Illinidiva on October 27, 2012 at 5:05 PM

reports from story on Drudge of Somalians being bussed into Ohio polls and given instructions on voting Democrat ticket.

katablog.com on October 27, 2012 at 5:12 PM

Obama’s approval rating in Gallup down 2 more points today. That’s a 7 point drop since Wednesday.

xblade on October 27, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Here’s a little math just for you to have a laugh at.

As of this second Nate Silver’s model predicts Barack Obama to win the popular vote 50.3% to 48.6%. The RCP average currently has Mitt at 47.9% of the popular vote and Obama at 46.9%.

This leads to one of three possible conclusions:

1) Almost all the national polls are wrong, perhaps due to some concerted effort to depress Democrat turnout.

2) Barack Obama will win over 80% of the remaining undecideds.

3) Nate Silver doesn’t know anything.

I’ll leave it to you to decide which it is.

alchemist19 on October 27, 2012 at 5:23 PM

3) Nate Silver doesn’t know anything.

I’ll leave it to you to decide which it is.

alchemist19 on October 27, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Silver is a partisan hack.

I was reading somewhere this morning that 2008 was the first time in like 60 years that there hasn’t been an incumbent president or VP on either ticket, so that for the first time, undecided voters tended to break evenly, making Silver’s analysis look prescient. That won’t be the case this year. He also pointed out Silver only looks at spreads and that an incumbent with a +3 lead at 49-46 is a lot different than 47-44.

The Count on October 27, 2012 at 5:35 PM

Here’s that article – good read.

The Count on October 27, 2012 at 5:43 PM

Yeah, but what did gumbypoked say?

bayview on October 27, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Michael Barone is The Rainman of Politics. He can tell you what the turnout was in Ward 2, Precinct 5, District 7 in such-n-such county in 1976.

He’s amazing.

Resist We Much on October 27, 2012 at 6:26 PM

Michael Barone is The Rainman of Politics. He can tell you what the turnout was in Ward 2, Precinct 5, District 7 in such-n-such county in 1976.

He’s amazing.

Resist We Much on October 27, 2012 at 6:26 PM

That’s a great description! I’m always amazed on election night when he starts going into the minutia of the states and districts.

BettyRuth on October 27, 2012 at 6:38 PM

I don`t know. Ohio makes me EXTREMELY nervous. It`s pretty much tied and it wouldn`t take much fraud to lose it. Or am I wrong?

ThePrez on October 27, 2012 at 7:23 PM

To be precise, Hannity asked “who is winning?” not “who will win?” Barone answered without hesitation “Mitt Romney.” But it wasn’t quite a final prediction – just the state of the race.

I’m nervous about OH too. But watch the clip, he provides great analysis (as always). Walking electoral encyclopedia – especially as regards Ohio.

Missy on October 27, 2012 at 7:44 PM

I don`t know. Ohio makes me EXTREMELY nervous. It`s pretty much tied and it wouldn`t take much fraud to lose it. Or am I wrong?

ThePrez on October 27, 2012 at 7:23 PM

If we win Wisconsin, Colorado, and New Hampshire, we don’t need Ohio. Or Iowa. Or Nevada. Did you see the video of the Romney/Ryan rally at Red Rocks? We’re winning Colorado. And we’re polling well in New Hampshire. And Romney is headed to Wisconsin Monday, where Rasmussen has him tied with Obama.

Caiwyn on October 27, 2012 at 8:01 PM

Caiwyn on October 27, 2012 at 8:01 PM

I certainly hope you’re right but Democrats have a nasty habit of outperforming the polls in Wisconsin in presidential races. If Walker’s ground game is really that good and Mitt can use the network he built then that’s awesome but based on the state’s history if the polls show a tie then we still have work to do.

alchemist19 on October 27, 2012 at 8:23 PM

o/t

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Now THAT is an endorsement. RT @jeffzeleny Des Moines Register endorses Mitt Romney, the first Republican presidential candidate since Nixon

Resist We Much on October 27, 2012 at 8:47 PM

If we win Wisconsin, Colorado, and New Hampshire, we don’t need Ohio. Or Iowa. Or Nevada. Did you see the video of the Romney/Ryan rally at Red Rocks? We’re winning Colorado. And we’re polling well in New Hampshire. And Romney is headed to Wisconsin Monday, where Rasmussen has him tied with Obama.

Caiwyn on October 27, 2012 at 8:01 PM

That’s a lot of ifs. Recent polls in Virginia have Obama tied and up by four respectively. Wisconsin is close, but Romney has never had a lead in the poll yet. Also Rasmussen has a history of being accurate for national polls but check out ras’s predictions for the state polls in 2008. All of them shorted Obama’s victory margin.

Ric on October 27, 2012 at 9:17 PM

I live in liberal northeast Ohio. Have for about 5 years. Lived in Cincinnati before that for about 20 years.

There is no way that Obama carries Ohio. The RR signs up here outnumber any other by a 4:1 margin. Same with bumper stickers.

As long as polls keep making D+9 samples… they’ll keep showing Obama ahead. But the reality is… the sample on election day is going to be D+2 or less, and that will bring a Romney victory.

knob on October 27, 2012 at 10:09 PM

That’s a lot of ifs. Recent polls in Virginia have Obama tied and up by four respectively. Wisconsin is close, but Romney has never had a lead in the poll yet. Also Rasmussen has a history of being accurate for national polls but check out ras’s predictions for the state polls in 2008. All of them shorted Obama’s victory margin.

Ric on October 27, 2012 at 9:17 PM

‘Gina is + 2% Romney or so. Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire all have some weird polling data in them, but I think they are near jump balls and all go to Romney if he wins the popular vote by 3% or so, which seems likely. Romney still needs icky Ohio, that gets way to much attention and likes gov’t handouts, or WI, the state that saves America. WI seems more likely now, so I’m not sure why Ryan isn’t parked out there.

Illinidiva on October 27, 2012 at 10:27 PM

That’s a lot of ifs. Recent polls in Virginia have Obama tied and up by four respectively. Wisconsin is close, but Romney has never had a lead in the poll yet.

Ric on

Gotta look at the samples. The VA polls you bring up are Gravis and WaPo. In both the sample is D+8 (41D/33R from Gravis and 31D/23R for WaPo). Even in 2008 VA was only D+6. So even going by 2008 standards Gravis should have Romney up 2 and WaPo should have Obama only up 2. I’m not putting stock in either poll.

Zaggs on October 27, 2012 at 10:46 PM

I live in NE Ohio, also; and it’s becoming very apparent to me that Romney will win Ohio. The enthusiasm at his rallies, and yard signs are great indicators. I’ve been doing a comparison count, when ever out driving, and Romney signs outnumber Obama about 20-1. I’ve, also noticed here that attendance at the infrequent Obama appearances are reported as “well attended”, but never show the crowds, as seems to be the norm, lately.

FoxyLady on October 28, 2012 at 1:55 AM

I live in NE Ohio, also; and it’s becoming very apparent to me that Romney will win Ohio. The enthusiasm at his rallies, and yard signs are great indicators. I’ve been doing a comparison count, when ever out driving, and Romney signs outnumber Obama about 20-1. I’ve, also noticed here that attendance at the infrequent Obama appearances are reported as “well attended”, but never show the crowds, as seems to be the norm, lately.

FoxyLady on October 28, 2012 at 1:55 AM

When they televise campaign news snippets, they always show close-in, tight shots for Barak’s events. So it’s hard to judge his attendance numbers.

Red Creek on October 28, 2012 at 5:42 AM

FoxyLady on October 28, 2012 at 1:55 AM

But I suspect one man knows, and that man knows that attendance is down far below expectations, and he is not at all happy about it.

Red Creek on October 28, 2012 at 6:07 AM