And it has worked: see the writings of Allahpundit and Ace of Spades.

But Ohio will not go again for Obama. It is not the liberal Mecca the pollsters depict, and the bloggers — even conservative bloggers — from other parts of the country now assume.

I’d go after Wisconsin and Michigan too, because Romney is in a position to make Obama wear himself and his resources out all over the country. But not because Ohio is lost.

For the polls that provide the by-region cross tabs, they are obviously biased wrong.

Time: page 12, south/cincinnati region is 28% of poll which is effectively the south half of the state. They have this region going for Obama 52/41. In fact in 2008 this same region went for McCain almost polar opposite of that. South Ohio is not going Obama +11 this year.

SurveyUSA: tab 1, Cincinnati region is 14%, equivalent to Hamilton county and it’s 3 adjacent counties. They have this region going for Obama 45/40. In 2008 it was McCain 54/44. Cincy area has not swung +15 FOR Obama since then.

In summary, the Ohio polls are wrongly biased and are easily proven to be wrong.

I’m going off memory here, but prior to 2008, northwest Wisconsin had been more Democrat than the state as a whole.

Then along came SCOAMF. He underperformed there by about 3 points versus the state as a whole.

Then came Scott Walker, Ron Johnson, and Sean Duffy. Duffy became such a threat that ossified former Congressman Dave Obey, who represented northwest Wisconsin in Congress longer than I’ve been living, decided to retire, and the three Republicans won the district.

That said, it’s not a Republican lock. On the strength of the heavily-unionized Lake Superior counties, JoAnne Kloppenburg carried the area rather handily in the 2011 Supreme Court race.

Check out Bob Frum’s excellent new analysis – Obama Optimism: Why it is unfounded.

http://www.bobkrumm.com/blog/?p=2456

Incandescent on October 27, 2012 at 4:10 AM

You wrote Bob Frum but you meant to write Bob Krumm.

More Eeyore, please.

There are many ways this thing can go south, and Mittens is far from a lock on 270.

It’s not over until the robot humps.

Bruno Strozek on October 26, 2012 at 10:52 PM

Amen brother…i just do not get the “we can win even without Ohio” meme’… yes theoretically its possible. But no Republican that i know of has gone to the White House without winning Ohio.

Ohio is more than about EV’s – it represents middle America and there is no way that Republicans should even THINK about by-passing Ohio to the WH.

If you are not winning there, you are probably not going to win in Wisconsin either. After all Wisconsin is the more liberal of the two (in spite of Scott Walker’s impressive victories) and Ohio was carried by Bush both times.

http://www.bobkrumm.com/blog/?p=2456

What tools does he have at his disposal to steal Ohio?

There are many ways this thing can go south, and Mittens is far from a lock on 270.

It’s not over until the robot humps.

Colorado is a lock for Romney . Trust me, I live here.

You can comment in green if that makes you feel better.