Green Room

Yes, Romney’s Minnesota ads are all about western Wisconsin

posted at 8:31 pm on October 26, 2012 by

An illuminating set of screencaps from Ace’s co-blogger ConArtCritic to help answer the question I posed here this morning. It’s the two columns on the far right in his ‘caps that you want to pay closest attention to. Essentially, Romney’s keeping rough pace with Scott Walker’s victorious performance in Milwaukee and Green Bay this past summer, but he’s a few points behind elsewhere in the state. That’s what the ads are about — hitting those other parts, i.e. western Wisconsin.

Makes me wonder what happens next week if the Ohio polls on Monday and Tuesday remain stuck with Obama up two or three points. Does he shift some spending to Wisconsin then in an eleventh-hour attempt to take the state? I know I’ve said it umpteen times, but here’s umpteen plus one: If he wins Virginia and (gulp) Colorado, then he can win the presidency without Ohio. To do it, he’d need Wisconsin and New Hampshire/Iowa. Depending upon what the Ohio data says in the next few days, maybe that Plan B will become Plan A.

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I’d love to know what the Super Pacs are doing right now in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

DeathtotheSwiss on October 26, 2012 at 8:47 PM

Romney will win Colorado.

CliffHanger on October 26, 2012 at 9:04 PM

Instead of this new Green Room format, you should just post the pertinent article in the headlines and comment with us commoners.

You can comment in green if that makes you feel better.

davidk on October 26, 2012 at 9:20 PM

Why the “Gulp”?

Colorado is a lock for Romney . Trust me, I live here.

Norwegian on October 26, 2012 at 9:41 PM

Have you seen this prediction? Note MN.
http://unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_02.cfm

pjean on October 26, 2012 at 10:26 PM

Why are you gulping about Colorado? Romney will win this state.

LiquidH2O on October 26, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Romney will win Ohio too. Why? Look at the internals and remember the value voters.

jjnco73 on October 26, 2012 at 10:38 PM

More Eeyore, please.

There are many ways this thing can go south, and Mittens is far from a lock on 270.

It’s not over until the robot humps.

Bruno Strozek on October 26, 2012 at 10:52 PM

I think the national popular vote will be 51.5-48 and I don’think he loses the electoral college with a 3.5% win.

alofarabia on October 26, 2012 at 10:54 PM

So help me, Romney will get this thing done.

bluegill on October 26, 2012 at 11:33 PM

Maybe this is a good time to start seriously looking at the topic of voter fraud again. Since Obama already has used the “free Obamaphone” gambit to influence the Ohio outcome, it is reasonable to assume that his operatives have focused on this as a key state for attention.

What tools does he have at his disposal to steal Ohio?

Dextrous on October 26, 2012 at 11:39 PM

Newsflash: Romney will win Ohio.

TheLastBrainLeft on October 26, 2012 at 11:51 PM

Romney/Ryan run the table…

2Tru2Tru on October 27, 2012 at 12:45 AM

I actually want an EV tie, just so the House of Reps can decide it. Crissy Mathew’s head would well and truelly explode. Icing on the cupcake.

Boogeyman on October 27, 2012 at 2:28 AM

Check out Bob Frum’s excellent new analysis – Obama Optimism: Why it is unfounded.

http://www.bobkrumm.com/blog/?p=2456

Incandescent on October 27, 2012 at 4:10 AM

More Eeyore, please.

There are many ways this thing can go south, and Mittens is far from a lock on 270.

It’s not over until the robot humps.

Bruno Strozek on October 26, 2012 at 10:52 PM

Amen brother…i just do not get the “we can win even without Ohio” meme’… yes theoretically its possible. But no Republican that i know of has gone to the White House without winning Ohio.

Ohio is more than about EV’s – it represents middle America and there is no way that Republicans should even THINK about by-passing Ohio to the WH.

If you are not winning there, you are probably not going to win in Wisconsin either. After all Wisconsin is the more liberal of the two (in spite of Scott Walker’s impressive victories) and Ohio was carried by Bush both times.

nagee76 on October 27, 2012 at 5:37 AM

The fact that OH has not flipped scares me. I do think that it is hypothetically possible to win the popular vote by 3%+ and still lose the election. It’ll probably cause people to take a hard look at the electoral college and get rid of it after the fact, but them’s the rules right now.

Illinidiva on October 27, 2012 at 7:13 AM

Check out Bob Frum’s excellent new analysis – Obama Optimism: Why it is unfounded.

http://www.bobkrumm.com/blog/?p=2456

Incandescent on October 27, 2012 at 4:10 AM

You wrote Bob Frum but you meant to write Bob Krumm.

Dextrous on October 27, 2012 at 8:24 AM

First things first, yay Green Room 3.0 Comments.

I’m going off memory here, but prior to 2008, northwest Wisconsin had been more Democrat than the state as a whole.

Then along came SCOAMF. He underperformed there by about 3 points versus the state as a whole.

Then came Scott Walker, Ron Johnson, and Sean Duffy. Duffy became such a threat that ossified former Congressman Dave Obey, who represented northwest Wisconsin in Congress longer than I’ve been living, decided to retire, and the three Republicans won the district.

That said, it’s not a Republican lock. On the strength of the heavily-unionized Lake Superior counties, JoAnne Kloppenburg carried the area rather handily in the 2011 Supreme Court race.

Steve Eggleston on October 27, 2012 at 8:33 AM

Anyone that thinks the Ohio polls are accurate has not studied them.

For the polls that provide the by-region cross tabs, they are obviously biased wrong.

Time: page 12, south/cincinnati region is 28% of poll which is effectively the south half of the state. They have this region going for Obama 52/41. In fact in 2008 this same region went for McCain almost polar opposite of that. South Ohio is not going Obama +11 this year.

SurveyUSA: tab 1, Cincinnati region is 14%, equivalent to Hamilton county and it’s 3 adjacent counties. They have this region going for Obama 45/40. In 2008 it was McCain 54/44. Cincy area has not swung +15 FOR Obama since then.

In summary, the Ohio polls are wrongly biased and are easily proven to be wrong.

Carnac on October 27, 2012 at 8:36 AM

The biggest political fraud this year will not be committed by Democratic politicians. It will have been committed by pollsters, particularly with respect to Ohio. They constantly twist and turn their methodology to promote the narrative that Ohio is Obama country.

And it has worked: see the writings of Allahpundit and Ace of Spades.

But Ohio will not go again for Obama. It is not the liberal Mecca the pollsters depict, and the bloggers — even conservative bloggers — from other parts of the country now assume.

I’d go after Wisconsin and Michigan too, because Romney is in a position to make Obama wear himself and his resources out all over the country. But not because Ohio is lost.

NCC on October 27, 2012 at 8:54 AM

Don’t be afraid President Obama, there is nothing to see here.

Fleuries on October 27, 2012 at 9:49 AM