Green Room

Romney takes his first Electoral College lead

posted at 3:20 pm on October 18, 2012 by

Since the debate on Tuesday, which many analysts ceded to President Obama, mainly on strength of his having shown, the term comeback kid has been getting play among liberal pundits. Yet, this afternoon’s Real Clear Politics Electoral Map suggests goaway kid (or maybe just, “Go away, kid!”) is a more fitting description.

The map for the first time gives challenger Mitt Romney a lead of 206 to 201 over Obama in Electoral College votes. Strikingly, the map has Florida (with 29 Electoral votes), Michigan (with 16), Ohio (with 18), Pennsylvania (with 20), Virginia (with 13), and Wisconsin (with 10) all in the toss-up column. In addition, North Carolina, with its 15 Electoral votes, has moved from toss-up to “lean Romney.”

On the popular vote side of the tally board, Romney has opened up a 1-point lead with 47.7% to Obama’s 46.7%. The Intrade odds, however, continue to show the president with a commanding 63% to 36.9% lead. Also the Electoral College map with no toss-ups still gives Obama a victory with 294 votes to Romney’s 244.

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Before we all get too excited, your last line is very important: “Also the Electoral College map with no toss-ups still gives Obama a victory with 294 votes to Romney’s 244.”

When the no toss-ups map gives Mr Romney more than 270 votes, then I will start to get a bit more excited.

Please, make no mistake, the polling news is trending in a very positive direction and for that, I am very grateful, but not yet ready to pop any champagne corks.

Grinch on October 18, 2012 at 3:33 PM

It sure is nice to see North Carolina not be gray and turn pink…if not red soon.

SouthernGent on October 18, 2012 at 3:49 PM

Grinch on October 18, 2012 at 3:33 PM

You’re quite right. It’s good news tempered with a corrective dose of reality. The Intrade numbers are sobering, too. They represent the sense people have of who is going to win, which as is important as the reality of who is ahead in the polls.

Howard Portnoy on October 18, 2012 at 3:57 PM

Howard,
Don’t tell anyone, but Florida is NOT a toss up. Obama won by less than 3% of the vote total here in 2008. He received less than 51% of the vote.
Anyone who thinks he gains on his 2008 vote percentage is looloo.
Anyone who thinks he hasn’t lost, at least 5% of that vote percentage is in for a surprise.

FlaMurph on October 18, 2012 at 4:31 PM

i live in north florida… i can say with a pretty good dose of realism that the state will break for Romney. Too many folks here are hurting hard core and they mostly blame the current administration for it

katee bayer on October 18, 2012 at 5:15 PM

And then there’s Huffin’n’Puffin’Post which has Obamuh within 3 of 270, but I’m waiting for a right-leaning map to show Romney with a lead cuz those guys are too chicken to put him ahead right now. And I do like it that not a single state surrounding IL is solidly in the Obamuh column. Personally I don’t think IL will be either come election day–residents are just finding out that we’re on the hook for state senator Obamuh’s pension, you know, the one Romney mentioned in Tuesday’s debate that has investments in China.

stukinIL4now on October 18, 2012 at 5:50 PM

Intrade is sure looking like a Liberal propaganda site… a place to dump and burn money simply to try and wish their guy success. After the Libya attack, Obama’s stock rose steadily for 2 weeks straight, which defies logic after people were killed because it was so mishandled.

HopeHeFails on October 18, 2012 at 6:07 PM

Intrade is thinking like me, no way the media lets Romney win.

Zaggs on October 18, 2012 at 7:40 PM

Intrade is thinking like me, no way the media lets Romney win.

Zaggs on October 18, 2012 at 7:40 PM

I am suspicious of the Intrade prices. There are a fixed number of shares and the price is easily manipulable with relatively small quantities of scrilla. I believe Romney is currently under-priced.

WeekendAtBernankes on October 18, 2012 at 10:18 PM

The Intrade numbers are sobering, too. They represent the sense people have of who is going to win, which as is important as the reality of who is ahead in the polls.

Howard Portnoy on October 18, 2012 at 3:57 PM

Intrade is not just betting who is going to win, but also diversifying your portfolio. So if the rest of your portfolio will go down if 0 wins, hypothetically speaking, then you should buy bets on 0 so that the the returns from those shares will offset your other losses.

pedestrian on October 19, 2012 at 12:20 AM

Howard Portnoy on October 18, 2012 at 3:57 PM

Sorry. Intrade has been manipulated. It won’t move significantly until the day of the election. It is not a reliable indicator. It’s junk.

Corporal Tunnel on October 19, 2012 at 5:20 AM

HopeHeFails on October 18, 2012 at 6:07 PM

At least the polls reflect national tendencies. Intrade allows anyone to place a bet, including outside the US. If it’s a global source, then I’m happy Romney is doing 40/60.

long_cat on October 19, 2012 at 10:53 AM