Green Room

Cuba: If it’s October, the rumors must be flying

posted at 11:09 am on October 17, 2012 by

Val Prieto was talking about it last week, and now Mary O’Grady asks, Is Fidel Castro Dead, Again?

It’s not just a Halloween thing; O’Grady is asking since this time Nelson Bocaranda, who has been writing about Hugo Chávez’s health, tweeted,

And in his October 16 article (in Spanish) asserted, as O’Grady points out,

By Monday afternoon there was still no official word from Havana. But Mr. Bocaranda stuck with his story. He tweeted: “I reiterate that we will have news from Cuba in the next few days. The delay is not my fault. I am sorry.”

Bocaranda is taking a huge risk by saying this, because he’s laying his credibility on the line, while the news has very little to do with actual fact but a lot to do with a Communist regime’s hold on power.

Cuba is a totalitarian state where the government has a stranglehold on information.

Five years ago, I wrote in my then-Pajamas Media (now PJMedia), article,

Throughout the past year the world has been treated to a series of videos and photos showing the ailing Castro wearing a jogging suit while entertaining visiting dignitaries, most prominently his disciple Hugo Chavez. Chavez, who is providing Cuba 80,000 barrels of oil daily, always returns from these trips exulting about how well Fidel is recovering.

After each of these, the Cuban government’s newspaper, Granma, repeats the same carefully crafted message the Cuban people have been hearing for nearly fifty years: to continue the struggle, to strive for the impossible. The US is “a decaying empire that threatens us all”. It also reminds Cubans that they too, should endure their sorrows – sorrows inflicted by Castro’s own dictatorship – without complaint. The bottom line of the message is, Nothing is ever going to change.

But the reality is that things will change, and will change rapidly immediately following the news of the death. Everything, from large-scale civil upheaval from a people long-oppressed by a cruel government, to a large number of exiled Cubans seeking to reunite with their relatives by bringing them to the USA, to a total collapse of Cuban society, can not be dismissed as a possibility.

The existing Cuban power structure will collapse.

When Castro dies, will the Cuban government release the information at the time of the death? That is very unlikely. Even with all the behind-the-scenes preparations that may or may not have taken place over the past twelve months, there will be a delay because those in power will try to hold on to power for as long as they possibly can.

So the question is, for how long will the news of Castro’s death be delayed?

I stand by my words.

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Do Castro’s sisters still live in the US? Are there other family members who are citizens? The property fights will get ugly, once the Castro brothers fall and Miami becomes the capital of Cuba. I sort of feel sorry for the Cubans living on the island– they aren’t even going to realize what hit them when the wealthy, aggressive, smart and successful descendents of exiles start pushing for property restoration: Twenty-first century sophisticates versus the 1950’s.

MTF on October 17, 2012 at 11:49 AM