Green Room

Alan Grayson’s math just got a little harder

posted at 12:44 pm on April 4, 2012 by

Kissimmee (FL) Republican John Quiñones is a former state Representative, current Chairman of the Osceola County Commission, and has just announced his intent to run for the newly-created 9th Congressional District of Florida, which runs to the south and east of Orlando.

Alan Grayson is the only candidate to announce for the Democrats.  His national fame (or infamy) has given him a natural fundraising advantage, which translates to about $2 million to date according to Sunshine State News.  His finances, the 9th District’s demographics, and his access to the Obama machine would make him a nigh-unstoppable candidate in any other cycle, and against any other opponent.  But, perhaps, not this one.

FL-9 covers southeasternOrangeCounty, all of Osceola county, and a sliver of Polk County known as Poinciana.  Those who know Central Florida know that this part of town is heavily Hispanic, and that half of that Hispanic population is of Puerto Rican origin.  This is where Democrat math begins to crack up.

 About 40% of FL-9’s voting-age residents are Hispanic, and it’s no secret that Hispanic voters tend to favor Democrats, more so, Puerto Rican voters.  However, most ofCentral Florida’s Hispanics are registered independents, and tend to swing-vote.  Quiñones has a proven track record of appealing to these voters, and has won multiple elections on what is otherwise hostile ground for Republicans.  With a Puerto Rican on the ballot (especially one with Quiñones’ profile), I am hard-pressed to believe that Grayson (who does not currently live in FL-9 but owns a home there) can get the overwhelming majority of Hispanic votes that he’d need in order to return to Congress.  

 The mere possibility of a fifth Puerto Rican in Congress (along with Serrano, Velázquez, Gutiérrez, and Labrador) would potentially dry up any fundraising on the island, and would spook any local politicians looking to come over and stump for Grayson (as did Resident Commissioner Pedro Pierluisi last cycle).  For many Puerto Ricans, ethnic identity trumps political affiliation (Exhibit A: Sonia Sotomayor), and they tend to coalesce around “one of their own”, right or wrong.

 A Quiñones run in FL-9 could throw a wrench into national electoral calculations, as well.  Quiñones would likely affect Hispanic outreach and turnout all along the vaunted I-4 corridor, and could well help oust both President Barack Obama and Senator Bill Nelson.

Marco Rubio’s rise to the Senate proved that (A) Florida is a unique electoral market, and (B) that its Hispanics do not readily respond to Democrat national messaging.  Quiñones’ candidacy would necessarily focus the debate on Grayson, and hog-tie his record to Obama’s, and would rob Democrats of the opportunity to raise the specter of Hispanic racial grievance within the I-4 corridor.

For generations, Democrats have lived by the sword of racial polarization and grievance, and I am thrilled at the prospect that they may now die by it.  If I’m either the RNC, the RNCC, the Florida GOP, or Mitt Romney’s people…I’d look into wrapping my arms (and checkbook) around this guy yesterday.

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BTW, supporting links here and here. I forgot to plug them into the post before hitting “send”. Sorry about that. Also, there should a link to a Spanish-language version in the trackbacks. If not, click here. My WordPress-fu seems lacking. ;)

Jorge Bonilla on April 4, 2012 at 1:14 PM

There was another Hispanic running for this seat, right? I think this district went for Bush in 04, and with Grayson as the Dem, it should be a pickup.

IR-MN on April 4, 2012 at 1:44 PM

Still two others, none with this profile

Jorge Bonilla on April 4, 2012 at 1:50 PM

Hi, I’m John Quiñones. You’re on a TV show called “What Would You Do?”

JDF123 on April 4, 2012 at 1:53 PM

Hi, I’m John Quiñones. You’re on a TV show called “What Would You Do?”

JDF123 on April 4, 2012 at 1:53 PM

I hate that show. 75% of the time, Quiñones is doing some sort of national “sensitivity training” course where political correctness is hailed as “courageous” and the incorrect are upbraided for thinking wrongly.

I wish Greg Gutfeld or Stephen Crowder or Stephen Kruiser would do a parody of What Would You Do? called Why Don’t You Mind Your Own Business? in which the camera crew comes in just as someone starts berating the way a mother treats her children, or a boss treats his/her employee, or whatever, and instead of rewarding people for creating a scene, the host asks, “What concern is this of yours? Why don’t you mind your own business?”

L.N. Smithee on April 4, 2012 at 3:32 PM

If I were Quinones, I’d create this commercial:

A wild-eyed Grayson lookalike is at the wheel of a car zipping through red lights and stop signs on his way to Capitol Hill. As he makes his final turn, Quinones steps in front with his hands at his hips. Quinones holds his hand aloft as if to say “STOP!” The Grayson car screeches to a halt. He turns around toward the camera and says, “Not so fast! I’m John Quinones! I approved this message because Florida has to do better than Alan Grayson!”

L.N. Smithee on April 4, 2012 at 3:53 PM

Bad news for Alan Grayscum = good news for America in general and Florida in particular.

Benedict Nelson on April 4, 2012 at 5:54 PM

If Grayson is the best the Dimocrats can do in that district, there is hope for America yet…

Khun Joe on April 5, 2012 at 8:18 AM

The fact that Grayson can raise $2MM is a sad commentary on the people in the district he’s running in.
He is right up there with Debbie Idiot-Shultz as an embarrassment to all Floridians.

RWRFAN on April 5, 2012 at 9:05 AM

Most of that money is national.

Jorge Bonilla on April 5, 2012 at 9:22 AM

Hispanics are family-oriented and most are Catholic.

They also are not nearly as taken in by the race-baiting nonsense put forth by the lunatic left.

They can easily be persuaded to either vote Republican or to stay at home, rather than voting for Democrat scum.

Just because they don’t all have white skin, doesn’t mean they are down with residing on the white liberal plantation that is the absolutely worthless, corrupt and incompetent Democrat Party.

NoDonkey on April 5, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Great. Another RINO repubic minted by the party to the appeal to some indentity group’s “independents”. No thanks, I’d rather see a trainwreck like Grayscum in there converting liberals to conservatives by his mere presence.

Western_Civ on April 5, 2012 at 2:28 PM

Um, that thing’s not his math. I’m going to leave now, because he’s got that creepy grin on his face.

RINO in Name Only on April 5, 2012 at 3:46 PM