Enthusiasm gap narrowing between GOP and Democratic voters

posted at 2:19 pm on February 20, 2012 by

I have long maintained that reading the handwriting on the wall is a dangerous practice because it’s seldom written in indelible ink. Nevertheless, the temptation to read messages of gloom and doom as predictions is hard to suppress.

For those who believe that Barack Obama has been an abomination as president and is therefore undeserving of a second term, the inescapable bad news can be read in his approval ratings, which have risen steadily in the past month. His positive approval numbers overtook his negative numbers the first week of February. As of today, the RCP Poll Average has his approval rating at 48.9%, within hailing distance of the 50% mark for the first time since June of last year.

But there is more bad news coming out of the GOP primaries. It resides in the palpable lack of excitement the field of candidates is generating among the electorate. A Pew Research Center poll conducted at the end of January found that only 46% of registered Republican-leaning voters had a positive opinion of the GOP field. Fifty-two percent rated the field as fair or poor.

More recently, Gallup conducted a poll of its own, which confirmed these data. An enthusiasm advantage that favored Republicans over Democrats last September has shrunk from 13 percentage points to 5.

Further evidence that this gap is disappearing can be adduced from the voter turnout at recent primaries. ABC News reports:

In both Florida and Nevada, turnout dropped sharply from 2008. Florida saw nearly 280,000 fewer voters in its primary last week, while more than 11,000 fewer voters turned out to vote in Nevada on Saturday compared to four years ago.

With the GOP field all but cast in stone, it appears that the country may be in for four more years of winter.

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I am conservative and have voted in every elections for too many years to count. I try for all I have to keep any running as a R is voted in. We get krappy R’s but the d’s are so far beyond krappy, I still vote R. This year I plan to give my everything I have in me to see we get the senate, keep the house, and I pray to God get rid of bho. I have issues with all running, but I, our home, will vote for who we get to vote for against bho(sorry paul is one I just can’t vote for)! I just wonder how many others out there are like me?
L

letget on February 20, 2012 at 2:50 PM

I’m seriously considering not voting in the Presidental election for 2 reasons: 1) The Republican candidates are all terrible and none of them will have the guts to do what is necessary to turn things around and 2) I don’t want to see the future collapse of our economy, which I am beginning to believe is inevitable, get blamed on anyone except Barack Obama.

ncgalt1984 on February 20, 2012 at 3:14 PM

Here, at least, ncgalt, Barack Obama will not be blamed if our economy collapses. You will be blamed, because you did not do everything in your power to give the spineless GOP the power to destroy this country.

You will not be alone when that day comes.

Scott H on February 20, 2012 at 3:29 PM

I think that the decrease to 5% has everything to do with the primary.

It’s not like Democrats love Obama all of a sudden. They know they are stuck with him and their numbers wont improve.

For Republicans, a lot of the issue is bad candidates in the primary. However, as soon as there is one candidate, and we get closer to November, they will solidify behind the Republican and be enthusiastic to get rid of Obama. So, the number should nounce back up to +10 – 15 pretty easily.

milcus on February 20, 2012 at 3:54 PM

If Obama is re-elected, we will see unending winter, not 4 years of it, because the country will be changed beyond recognition, and we will be unable to recover. Obama’s soft tyranny will kill the last vestiges of liberty in America, kill Social Security and Medicare (not the best programs, to be sure, but right now they are depended on by a large number of seniors) and sink us into a financial hole we can never climb out of.

If you don’t vote to free America from Obama and the Democratic Congress, you’re voting for the destruction of what is left of our country.

hachiban on February 20, 2012 at 3:59 PM

Replacing Obama will only prove how racist America is and give the media and Democrats the opportunity to blame the Republicans for undoing all of the wonderful things he tried to do in his “brief” time in office. None of these Republican candidates will have the backbone to be the kind of leader our country needs right now. Even if they were to try the media and the left would accuse them of trying to throw grandma off the proverbial cliff. Four years later we will be right back to having an idiot in the White House.

ncgalt1984 on February 20, 2012 at 4:19 PM

We’ll know early on election night. If Pennsylvania is a blow-out for Barack, it’s over for America.

SouthernGent on February 20, 2012 at 5:48 PM

it appears that the country may be in for four more years of winter.

well Howard…I think years 1&2 were still getting used to the job…then the shock of the 2010 elections hit and his agenda got “back-burnered”. give the clown another 4 years and you’ll see what he had planned all along.

thanks for the reminder to apply for my Wisconsin open carry license…sad to say, I think I’m going to need it (we are regressing to the wild wild west).

teejk on February 20, 2012 at 6:32 PM

I wouldn’t sweat these numbers. Obama has been on a continuous campaign since last September. Republicans aren’t looking too good right now with the primaries and the House GOP stymied by Democrats. This election will be intense and voter enthusiasm will be high given what is at stake on both sides. Obama’s base is at 45% and they are back on board.
But I think this year is about to get bad for Obama. The economy is unlikely to recover, fake unemployment figures mean nothing to the man in the street and Gallup polling predicts a rise in unemployment to 9% for February. That would be a nasty surprise for the White House. Add in Europe and high gas prices and the news gets worse. And then there is Obama himself, the gift that never stops giving. The contraception coercion will not go away. Lefties are upset over his flip flop on super PACS. Gallup has his approvals at 44% today and I attribute that to his attack on the Catholic church.
And who knows what else may happen? Whenever a crisis occurs: the oil spill, the debt ceiling or the Arab “Spring” Obama’s inability to lead becomes clear and his popularity drops. He is a great campaigner but he can’t hide forever and something will happen this year.

breffnian on February 20, 2012 at 10:34 PM

ANYONE, who is even slightly enthusiastic about this coming debacle is either insane, or Barack 0bama himself… Or both.

LegendHasIt on February 20, 2012 at 11:51 PM

This has to be expected when our side is forced to choose from among Gingrich, Santorum, or Mitt Romney. Even Ron Paul. All are deeply, deeply flawed candidates that have multiple negatives to scare conservatives. When Mitt Romney is your most electable candidate you have problems. So of course GOP enthusiasm is down.

The Left was in a similar situation in 2004. They thought anti-Bush sentiment would win them the election (and at that point Bush was still pretty popular.) They chose John Kerry to be their standard bearer and lost by a wider margin than in 2000.

It’s going to be the same with us. The good news (if America is still left) is that Obama will be reelected and spend his second term with sub-40% approval and lack the political capital to do additional damage.

SAMinVA on February 21, 2012 at 8:40 AM

I have one sentence to refute that: Think about his chance to appoint Supreme Court Justices.

All it will take is one Conservative judge replaced with a Liberal. Goodbye gun rights. Goodbye any vestige of border control. Goodbye most of the rights you cherish.

We can’t afford another 4 years of Obama. Outside of the fact that he will ignore any objections by Congress and rule by executive fiat, we can’t afford the prospect of forty years of a Liberal Supreme Court.

hachiban on February 21, 2012 at 4:25 PM