Obama’s positive polling numbers rise above negative: Thank the GOP?

posted at 1:10 pm on February 6, 2012 by Howard Portnoy

“Never pray for a new king,” an old Jewish saying holds, “because there is no certainty that he will be any better than the old one.” The tendency of voters in general elections to gravitate toward a “known quantity,” usually the incumbent, bears out the wisdom of this observation.

Which in turn seems to be as good an explanation as any as for why the Real Clear Politics average spread for the president’s job approval ratings is positive for the first time in seven months. As of this morning, the spread is +2.0, with 48.5% approving of the job President Obama is doing against 46.5% who disapprove. The Rasmussen poll—which tracks the opinions of likely voters—has the president’s approval rating at 50%. The last time the positive and negative ratings were at parity was July 7, 2011.

A factor that undeniably plays a role in this surge in Obama’s approval is the brutal and relentless infighting among Republican candidates. (A secondary factor is frontrunner Mitt Romney’s well documented capacity for shooting himself in the foot).

The attacks, many of them mounted by the Gingrich camp and directed at Romney, are unprecedented in number and nature. According to the Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), the Florida primary was the most negative campaign ever waged. The group found that 92% of the ads airing in the state during the run-up to the primary vote were negative. Of a total 11,586 television spots that ran between January 23 and 29, 10,633 were negative.

The Romney camp, which reportedly ran 3,276 ads, 99% of which were negative, is quoted by CNN as rationalizing:

We were being whaled on by Speaker Gingrich and didn’t respond well in South Carolina. So we decided to respond. We made it clear if people want change in Washington you have to bring in someone from outside Washington. Both the change in tactic as well as the message have had a real impact in Florida.

The content of the back-and-forth volleys is also problematic for the GOP’s chances of reclaiming the White House. Gingrich’s characterization of Romney as “Obama lite” is just the latest in a string of invectives that provides red meat to the Obama campaign.

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