How would Obama—and his supporters—handle another Middle East war?

posted at 2:43 pm on February 3, 2012 by Howard Portnoy

When asked whether he genuinely believes there is a “strong likelihood” that Israel will launch a preemptive attack on Iran, as reported by Washington Post columnist David Igantius, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta did not dispute the claim, according to NBC. Instead, he is said to have told reporters that he was “just not commenting” for now, adding, “what I think and what I view, I consider that to be an area that belongs to me and nobody else.”

NBC also went on to say that “current and former U.S. and Israeli officials” with “access to their countries’ intelligence” affirmed:

[I]t is highly unlikely that the war-weary U.S. would mount a military attack on Iran, instead relying on financial sanctions and diplomatic pressure to squeeze Tehran.

But one high-ranking U.S. Air Force officer is not so sure. Former Deputy Commander of the U.S. European Command Charles F. Wald told the website of the Israeli newspaper Haaretz that he is convinced the U.S. would feel pressure to “stand by Israel” if such an attack were planned.

“They have a fantastic military,” Wald is quoted as saying, “but not big enough for weeks or months of attacks—hundreds of sorties per day.”

This raises the question of what the Obama administration would do if faced with such pressure to stand by America’s true lone ally in the region. He would certainly feel put upon to commit to a war effort by Jewish groups here at home and by many other Americans, 63% of whom voice support for Israel. He would also feel tugged in the opposite direction by another “ally,” Russia, urging him to stand down.

For a president who, it can be argued, has made decisions more often than not on what is politically expedient, the choice would be Hobsonian. Certainly, Obama’s dovish tendencies—which led to announced withdrawals in Iraq and more recently Afghanistan—would kick in. He might adopt the same “lead-from-behind” strategy he opted for in the Libyan campaign, but then he would provide ammunition to his critics who would remind voters that his administration took five months to accomplish a military objective in Libya that should have been measured in weeks if not days.

And of course there would be hectoring from his anti-war base. It is on occasions like this that Obama probably wishes he were genuinely a commander-in-chief and not just someone who dresses for the part.

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