Iowa Caucus Day (and beyond)

posted at 10:22 am on January 3, 2012 by Karl

Long awaited. Much anticipated. Let’s get it over, already!

Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum all have a chance to win, particularly where 41 percent could still be persuaded to support another candidate. Who in Iowa could possibly be undecided after all this? Sasha Issenberg explains.

Under the topline, the stories are Santorum’s momentum and the undercard — stories that are interrelated, as Santorum’s surge likely affects candidates like Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry. The traditional wisdom is that there are three tickets out of Iowa, but Santorum’s weaknesses outside Iowa and Paul’s reliance on Democrat and Independent support will likely keep Gingrich and Perry running for a while.

As with the other NotRomneys, Santorum’s current rise will bring more scrutiny to his campaign. Philip Klein has a quick and critical primer on Santorum’s record. Klein also argues that merely being to the right of Romney isn’t good enough, because Romney has the advantages of money, organization, establishment support and the perception of being the most electable. Klein probabaly overstates his case.

Although I am skeptical of new types of campaigning, one thing the Internet has changed is fundraising, so a lot of money can flow to Santorum quickly if he becomes the conservative alternative to Romney.

Electablity is part ideology, but also a circular function of polling; if Santorum wins Iowa, he could win elsewhere and suddenly look more electable to people. Santorum’s own electoral record is spotty, but winning and losing in a Bluish swing state like Pennsylvania may not look worse than winning and losing in Blue Massachusetts like Romney.

As for establishment support, Santorum was a part of GOP leadership in the Senate (for better or worse, depending on point-of-view). Romney was unable to attract a lot of the establishment until other alternatives were exhausted — they even hesitated to open their fat wallets when Gingrich was on the rise. Thus, it’s not clear to me that the establishment would bend over backwards to fight Santorum in a protracted campaign.

Klein’s strongest point is Santorum’s general lack of organization. In the medium term, the new money coming in and candidates dropping out would largely solve that problem. After all, as the campaign spreads wider, it becomes more media than retail. But Gingrich and Perry likely won’t drop out right away. Indeed, if Perry managed to pass Gingrich in Iowa, he would likely be better equipped to fight on than Santorum (although Perry-affiliated Liz Mair notes that Newt increasingly seems like he could stay in just to attack Romney out of personal pique; see also Nate Silver). Moreover, Santorum’s short-term mismatch of money to infrastructure could hurt him in key early states like South Carolina and Florida.

The Iowa horserace may be a photo finish, but whatever the order in Iowa — barring a surprise third-place finish by Perry or Gingrich — you know who this benefits.

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