Election 2012: One year and counting

posted at 10:52 am on November 6, 2011 by Howard Portnoy
[ Economics ]   

Exactly one year from today, voters will head to polling places all over America to decide the fate of the country and the employment status of its current chief executive. According to an USA Today/Gallup poll taken in August, only 47% of Americans believe that Barack Obama deserves a second term. Although that survey was conducted over three months ago, little has happened in the intervening period that would seem to warrant a sea change in voter opinion.

Unemployment has dipped slightly, to 9.1%, but that’s hardly a stat Obama wants to boast about on the campaign trail. The most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report shows 80,000 new private sector jobs for the month of October, but that too is woefully short of the quarter million-plus jobs the economy will need to add each month to eventually reach pre-recession unemployment levels.

So where does that leave the president, and what are his chances for reelection? That, needless to say, is anybody’s guess, and enough commentators have handicapped the election to make another opinion superfluous. Instead, I will simply lay out some facts that will be—or can be—make-or-break issues for the president:

• Independents’ low opinion of the American Jobs Act. The president and his Democratic colleagues have been touting  the results of a Gallup poll conducted in September that shows strong support for his jobs plan—and especially its provisions for taxing “the rich.” According to the poll, 66% favor raising taxes on families earning at least $250,000 versus 32% who do not. What the Democrats conveniently overlook is a second poll released around the same time by Public Opinion Strategies showing that independent voters reject the plan by a 20-percent margin. Only 33% support the bill while 53% oppose it. The independent vote was instrumental in helping Obama win election in 2008. He will need it again in 2012 if is to have a chance of renewing his lease on 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
• The power of the self-fulfilling prophecies. People like to back a winner. In my own case, that simple truth explains why I am an avid Pittsburgh Steelers fan but haven’t followed, much less rooted for, the Pirates in decades. So with elections. Even though a trip to the polls takes relatively little time, many voters will stay home if they believe the man they plan to cast their ballot for is toast. And that is the current scuttlebutt surrounding Obama. Intrade, the prediction website, currently gives Obama a 49.9% chance of winning the 2012 election, but assigns Mitt Romney a much healthier 69% chance. Put in more conventional terms, no president ever won reelection with an approval rating of 47% or lower one year out from the election. Obama’s Real Clear Politics aggregate approval rating is currently at 45.4%.

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