Green Room

If You’re Worried About the New
Time Magazine Poll That Shows
Barack H. Obama (and Even Hillary!)
Easily Whupping All the Republican Candidates…

posted at 7:02 pm on October 28, 2011 by

Don’t. No, really; don’t worry.

First, the poll’s respondents are actually adults, not likely voters; Time derives the likely-voter percent by using a tried but provably untrue turnout model: asking respondents, “hey, you gonna vote?” Anybody who said “Yes” (838 out of 1,001) is listed as a likely voter. (The poll didn’t even ask whether said likely voter bothered to vote in 2008 or 2010.)

In the last election (2010), a whopping 37.8% of adults turned out to vote. In fact, in the banner year of 2008, when turnout was the highest in four decades, when We were all Waiting for the One, turnout hit a record high of 56.8% of adults.

It’s gibbering madness to fantasize that next year’s turnout will be 84% — higher than has ever been measured going at least as far back as the Disputed Election of 1824 (turnout 26.9%), a four-way cage match between Andrew Jackson, John Quincy Adams, William Harris Crawford, and Henry Clay — all in the same Democratic-Republican party, funnily enough — which ended climactically with the House of Representatives picking Quincy Adams, after he (seemingly) bribed Speaker of the House Henry Clay by offering him the job of Secretary of State.

Assuming turnout for the 2012 election is the same as in 2008 — which itself is extraordinarily unlikely — that still means that a third of those who insist they plan to vote… won’t. And as usual, most of these “phantom voters” will be Democrats. Conclusion: The actual turnout will be significantly more conservative than the wet-dream turnout that Time envisions.

(The highest recorded turnout was close, however, to Time’s fairy-godmother wish; 81.8% of voting-age men voted in the centennial election of 1876, between Republican Rutherford B. Hayes and Democrat Samuel Tilden, considered probably the most corrupt presidential election in American history — including twenty disputed electoral votes.)

Second point, as easily seen by the complete results, even the pool of respondents itself oversampled liberals and oversampled Democrats.

 

Party trust and support

Q5. REGARDLESS OF HOW YOU USUALLY VOTE, OVERALL, WHICH PARTY – (THE DEMOCRATS) OR (THE REPUBLICANS) — DO YOU TRUST TO DO A BETTER JOB IN DEALING WITH THE MAIN PROBLEMS THE NATION FACES OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS?

Democrats: 42% Republicans: 31%

Q6. IN POLITICS AS TODAY, ARE YOUR VIEWS BEST REPRESENTED BY THE (DEMOCRATIC PARTY), (REPUBLICAN PARTY), THE TEA PARTY, ANOTHER PARTY, OR DO NONE OF THE PARTIES REALLY REPRESENT YOUR VIEWS?

Democrats: 30% Republicans: 17% Tea Party: 12% None: 35%

(Note that there are more self-described Democrats, 30%, than self-described Republicans and tea partiers combined, 29%.)

 

“Tea Party” support and impact

Q8. ON ANOTHER ISSUE, IS YOUR OPINION OF THE TEA PARTY MOVEMENT VERY FAVORABLE, SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE, SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE, VERY UNFAVORABLE, OR DON’T YOU KNOW ENOUGH ABOUT THE TEA PARTY TO HAVE AN OPINION?

Very fav: 8% Somewhat fav: 19% Somewhat unfav: 9% Very unfav: 24%

(Combined favorable: 27%; combined unfavorable: 33% — unfavorable = +6 points.)

Q9. HAS THE THE TEA PARTY MOVEMENT HAD A POSITIVE IMPACT ON AMERICAN POLITICS TODAY, A NEGATIVE IMPACT, OR HAS IT HAD LITTLE IMPACT?

Positive: 34% Negative: 40% Little: 25%

Q10. DO YOU CONSIDER YOURSELF A MEMBER OR FOLLOWER OF THE TEA PARTY, OR NOT?

Yes: 6% [11%] No: 93% [88%]

(Numbers in [brackets] indicate subpool of those who say they are familiar with the “Tea Party.”)

 

Occupy Wall Street support and impact

Q11. IN THE PAST FEW DAYS, A GROUP OF PROTESTORS HAS BEEN GATHERING ON WALL STREET IN NEW YORK CITY AND SOME OTHER CITIES TO PROTEST POLICIES WHICH THEY SAY FAVOR THE RICH, THE GOVERNMENT’S BANK BAILOUT, AND THE INFLUENCE OF MONEY IN OUR POLITICAL SYSTEM. IS YOUR OPINION OF THESE PROTESTS VERY FAVORABLE, SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE, SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE, VERY UNFAVORABLE, OR DON’T YOU KNOW ENOUGH ABOUT THE PROTESTS TO HAVE AN OPINION?

Very fav: 25% Somewhat fav: 29% Somewhat unfav: 10% Very unfav: 13%

(Combined favorable: 54%; combined unfavorable: 23% — favorable = +31 points!)

Q12A. IN YOUR VIEW, WILL THIS PROTEST MOVEMENT HAVE A POSITIVE IMPACT ON AMERICAN POLITICS TODAY, A NEGATIVE IMPACT, OR WILL IT HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AMERICAN POLITICS TODAY?

Positive: 30% Negative: 9% Little: 56%

 

These are the shibboleth questions, those that fairly clearly demarcate respondents as either mostly liberal or mostly conservative. Notice that in each case, the poll shows a decided tilt away from conservativism and towards liberalism, which I believe is very much at odds with the actual voting electorate today, at least based upon the 2010 election results.

I could be wrong; mayhap voters flirted with conservative policies and politicians for one electoral moment but returned to the liberal fold in the past year. However, unless you’re willing to buy that idea, you needn’t fret about this Time poll: It’s more than likely heavily weighted towards the Left, as are most polls commissioned by left-leaning media giants — especially in the “present emergecy” of a pending Obamic defeat.

Cross-posted on Big Lizards

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If you can’t dazzle ‘em with brilliance…

Ace ODale on October 28, 2011 at 7:24 PM

It’s gibbering madness to fantasize that next year’s turnout will be 84% — higher than has ever been measured going at least as far back as the Disputed Election of 1924 (turnout 26.9%), a four-way cage match between Andrew Jackson, John Quincy Adams, William Harris Crawford, and Henry Clay

Psst, Dafydd, I believe you meant 1824

rbj on October 28, 2011 at 7:30 PM

Psst, Dafydd, I believe you meant 1824

rbj on October 28, 2011 at 7:30 PM

I saw that, too.

OhioCoastie on October 28, 2011 at 8:39 PM

First, the poll’s respondents are actually adults, not likely voters

Nonsense. If they were adults, they wouldn’t be supporting Democrats.

malclave on October 28, 2011 at 10:43 PM

Of all the unexpected places I have seen wisdom, a comic book makes the top ten.

An experienced warrior angel was coaching a rookie warrior angel. She explained how evil will tell her that fighting is futile. That she is going to lose no matter what and she should just give up. The veteran went on to explain that evil is cowardly and afraid of a real fight/a fair fight. Evil wants a safe and easy kill.

I see this BS poll as a version of what she was talking about. It is meant to demoralize and sway. They want us to roll over and play dead for them.

What was the veteran warrior angel’s answer to the problem? It was to shove their spear up evil’s backside.

Hard Right on October 28, 2011 at 11:48 PM

Rbj:

Oops; corrected the tyop. Thanks!

Dafydd

Dafydd ab Hugh on October 29, 2011 at 7:21 AM

Doesn’t matter this is what everyone sees.

tomas on October 29, 2011 at 8:28 AM