Green Room

Victory Disease

posted at 1:39 am on October 6, 2011 by

After Japan was defeated in WWII, there was a lot of analysis about why. Of course, one big reason why was that the US outproduced Japan by a huge factor, even taking into account that the majority of American war production was applied against Germany and Italy.

But there was another factor which Japanese analysts fingered. They called it “victory disease“. Beginning with Pearl Harbor, and for the next five months or so, it seemed that nothing the Japanese did could possibly go wrong.

And they got cocky. Then there was the Battle of Midway, which gutted their naval aviation, and it was all downhill from there.

Care to read something humorous? Try this, from April, 2009: Permanent Democratic Majority: New Study Says Yes

As we all know, a year and a half later, the Democrats set a record for losing House seats in a mid-term election. And right now it looks very likely that they’re going to lose control of the Senate next year, and that they won’t retake the House. And Obama is looking increasingly like a one-termer.

Now the point of all this is that the stupidest thing Conservatives could do is to assume they lead an emerging “permanent Conservative majority” and get just as cocky after the 2012 election. If, as I now think likely, it ends up with the Republicans controlling both legislative chambers and the White House, that’s no cause for complacency. The voters will be repudiating the Democrats, not endorsing the Republicans — and in 2014 they can repudiate the Republicans just as easily.

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I expect the next GOP President to be saddled with blame by the media & Dems when the damage wrought by liberal policies doesn’t disappear overnight.

OhioCoastie on October 6, 2011 at 9:52 AM

I seem to recall the last Republican bout with this after the 2004 elections.

Steve Eggleston on October 6, 2011 at 10:42 AM

sho enuff

AH_C on October 6, 2011 at 12:40 PM

That is all.

mgman on October 6, 2011 at 2:55 PM

Spot on regarding the topic of political complacency and over-interpretation.

But just for fun, to quibble with a minor point in your historical analogy, while Midway certainly was devasting to the Japanese, it is not clear that their naval aviation (meaning pilots) was actually gutted primarily by that debacle.

In Shattered Sword, the authors present a fascinating reinterpretation of the conventional history of Midway, including I believe an assertion that in fact Japan’s naval aviation was gutted by the grinding attrition of the South Pacific, especially the prolonged Solomons campaign starting with Guadalcanal. I highly recommend Shattered Sword to any WWII or Midway buffs.

IceCold on October 6, 2011 at 7:37 PM