Green Room

Hot Air Candidate Survey: 4th of July Weekend Results

posted at 8:53 pm on July 3, 2011 by

With over 6000 ballots cast, we have results. Monthly Presidential chart is below. Then I’ll go into some of the hard realities facing Hot Air’s front runner. Send your questions and comments to me here.

Sarah Palin has returned to almost her highest vote take since the survey began, at 36.94% of the vote. Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry run closely together, coming in second (19.95%) and third (18.91%) respectively. Herman Cain takes fourth at 6.68%, continuing his downward movement since his May highs. Mitt Romney takes fifth, at 6.3%.

Palin may still be on top of the overall results, but she is in major danger of being eclipsed in the primaries by Bachmann and/or Perry. The following pie chart should make Palin supporters very, very uneasy.

(Palin beats Perry by 10 points, with unaffiliated voters breaking roughly 3-to-2 to Perry. The situation I lay out below is the more serious situation of the two for Palin.)

Hot Air is a site that, as these surveys consistently show, has a very strong and organized Palin following — and Hot Air tilts toward the Grassroots Right anyway — yet from her baseline vote to her head-to-head vote against Bachmann, Palin ekes out only a four point win, gaining 16 points from her baseline vs. Bachmann’s 28 point gain. If Bachmann takes that sort of ratio of unaffiliated voters in a head-to-head primary, I don’t see how Palin overcomes Bachmann, let alone overcomes whoever makes it out of the establishment primary of Romney, Pawlenty et al. If Palin’s overall Hot Air numbers again drop back to 32% or so, she will likely lose to Bachmann in the Hot Air head-to-head match-up.

There’s a protective instinct in play here, too, and it appears that even grassroot-ers see Bachmann as a safer option to Palin. The 2nd choice Perry vote hammers this home pretty clearly.

But Bachmann’s pathway to the nomination is not a cakewalk and is complicated by Perry’s candidacy: Perry is not only the second choice for Palin, but for Bachmann as well.

Which pretty well explains this outcome:

Whoever emerges between Perry and Bachmann will have the electoral advantage on Palin, who it appears has serious electoral maneuvering problems even among the base. Palin’s strength is the excitement of her supporters and the high commitment of those supporters to her. Her weakness is, simply, that there won’t be enough of them to carry her through the current field of primary candidates. I wrote back in 2009 that Palin’s most likely role in the 2012 cycle would be as a coronator. I still believe that’s basically right.

Two other tidbits: The new Hot Air leader for the vice presidential nomination is Michele Bachmann, unseating Allen West from his long-running spot atop the VP results.

The new Hot Air second choice for president leader is, also, Michele Bachmann.

Lots here. Feedback welcome.

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Comment pages: 1 2

Ted Torgerson on July 4, 2011 at 12:54 AM

agreed but i tend to thin Polls are used to create narratives also. and then follow on polls are used to show the narrative is working or to reinforce the narrative.

unseen on July 4, 2011 at 1:06 AM

PhilipJames on July 4, 2011 at 12:18 AM
Ted Torgerson on July 4, 2011 at 12:54 AM

See? The quintessential butt-hurt cry-babies.

catmman on July 4, 2011 at 1:11 AM

Ummm…maybe because a Hotair poll isn’t a real election?

It’s not even a real poll.

Dreadnought on July 4, 2011 at 12:57 AM

that is your thoughts others see it differently. I tend to think it is better than calling up 6000 random people and getting their thoughts on a subject. this poll polls 6000 self selected politcal junkies

unseen on July 4, 2011 at 1:12 AM

catmman on July 4, 2011 at 1:11 AM

Do you have a “history” with those two fellow HA commenters?…

Gohawgs on July 4, 2011 at 1:53 AM

Editor’s Note: So let’s see if we’ve got this straight. Gov. Palin dominates this poll. She wins going away, by her highest vote total “since the survey began,” beats the two candidates the anyone-but-Palin media is currently hyping (Bachmann by 17 points, Perry by 18 points)… and HA desperately tries to spin this as somehow bad news for Sarah? Why is Ed Morrissey the only contributor at Hot Air that seems to have no axe to grind when it comes to Gov. Palin?

– JP

unseen on July 4, 2011 at 1:56 AM

How many of these putative candidates have been “vetted” as microscopically as Sarah Palin? I’ve seen a lot of elections and you can bet the Left Wing Media Conglomerate will find some thing to bash the Republican nominee with. What ever it is will be held back, like GWB’s DUI charge, until after the convention. They all have something, however innocent, that the LEMC will blow up into a scandal. The only one in the field who is practically immune to this is Sarah Palin. She’s been under the microscope so long that there is nothing they can bring up that hasn’t already been debuncked.

BillyGoatGruff on July 4, 2011 at 1:58 AM

Remember, electoral votes. Should Palin be the nominee, which Bush state does she NOT win? I can’t think of one.

Also, remember, redistricting will seriously favor Republican congressional candidates because of the republican sweep in 2010 at the state level. This is a very favorable year for a Republican to win the national ticket. Obama is very weak.

Which Republican candidate will throw punches and not hold back? Palin for sure. Bachmann will throw punches, but I perceive them to be weaker because she doesn’t have the knack of condensing an issue down to a very succinct sound bite. Think “death panels”.

karenhasfreedom on July 4, 2011 at 2:33 AM

A win by 17 and 18 points and Sarah Palin is in trouble.

That’s like saying a boxer has won 5 of the first 7 rounds of a heavyweight championship fight but doom is about to befall him.

technopeasant on July 4, 2011 at 2:34 AM

technopeasant on July 4, 2011 at 2:34 AM

the only way Patrick could even have a possibility of a point is if Palin and bachmann are the only two candidates and the final primary was tommorrow.

Palin increased her freaking support. Head to head Bachmann and Palin isn’t going to happen, head to head Perry isn’t going to happen. You will see like 2008 three or possibly 4 candidates in the top tier going into the first primaries. The second tier will take some votes and most of these will quickly drop out at latest by SC.

this is not and will not be a conservative vs rino type of election. the candidates themselves have seen to that.

unseen on July 4, 2011 at 3:13 AM

i find myself wondering if it’s even worth trying to extrapolate these results into actual reality a year and a half from now…

don’t get me wrong; i am with you all (well, most of you), but HA readership is just that: HA readership.

i have high hopes, but feel that’s it’s still way too early in the game…

homesickamerican on July 4, 2011 at 5:37 AM

This post has been promoted to

Comments have been closed on this post but the discussion continues here.

Ed Morrissey on July 4, 2011 at 11:32 AM

The chances of Palin and Bachmann going head-to-head in a primary are nil. The chances of Palin and Perry going head-to-head in a primary are nil. The chances of Perry and Bachmann going head-to-head in a primary are nil. When I saw these match-ups in Patrick’s poll, I thought, WTF. I wondered why he didn’t include a head-to-head between Palin and Charlie Sheen. It wouldn’t have been any less meaningful.

Why no head-to-head between Palin and Romney? Why no head-to-head between Palin and Pawlenty? A Romney-Palin matchup is inevitable, if Palin jumps in. The inclusion of Palin v. Bachmann and Palin v. Perry and the exclusion of Palin v. Romney makes me question the intent.

While the main poll has a semblance to an actual primary, the other data points that Patrick develops are of little consequence or offer little real insight. Mark Twain once said, “Figures don’t lie, but liars figure”. I’m not calling Patrick a liar, but his conclusions are based on false hypotheses and therefore his secondary conclusions lack credibility, imo.

NoNails on July 4, 2011 at 7:41 AM

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