Green Room

Hot Air Candidate Survey Results: June Edition

posted at 12:26 am on June 2, 2011 by

Sarah Palin wins. Rick Perry places. Herman Cain shows. Mitt Romney fourth, and Tim Pawlenty fifth. Charts and analysis follow. Interactive map at the end.

It looks like Palin’s bus tour is getting her back into the survey groove she had earlier this year. The graphs to date:

The obvious eye-popper is Perry’s share of the vote in his first survey. Where’d all those votes come from? And why didn’t Pawlenty do better after Daniels’ exit, as we’d expected?

Those questions are easily answered when we dig a bit into our data. Take a look at the votes Perry gained from other candidates (the second column). And then, look at the 2nd choice column.

Perry is occupying Pawlenty’s space, and obviously the space of a lot of candidates, given that Palin and Cain don’t escape unscathed, either. It’s an unusual, cross-party coalition judging from the “formerly voted for” column. Will be interesting to see how Perry’s fortunes fair in subsequent surveys. But for now at least, it looks like he’s got a broad base of support.

And lastly, the map. This month I’ve included only the top five vote getters to make the map load faster and to make it easier to see how the heavy hitters stack up regionally. Feedback in the comments, or join me on Twitter.


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Comment pages: 1 2

Wait till they hear that Perry is squishy on borders.

james23 on June 2, 2011 at 12:39 PM

Compared to last month:

Biggest winners: Perry & Palin (Romney gained too, but he is still way below of where he were 2 months ago)

Biggest losers: Cain, Ron Paul, Bachmann & Gingrich

Norwegian on June 2, 2011 at 12:53 PM

It looks like Palin’s bus tour is getting her back into the survey groove she had earlier this year to book her some more 75k each speeches.

Because, that is all she is about. People that actually believe she is running for POTUS are looking sillier and sillier.

Now, quick. Send her some more money.

Moesart on June 2, 2011 at 1:13 PM

Seems appropriate Mittens’ color on the map is pink

PJ Emeritus on June 2, 2011 at 1:15 PM

I also enjoyed how HA skipped the Palin/Trump pizza photo op.

It shows what Palin is all about, that’s why. Just putting on a show.

Moesart on June 2, 2011 at 1:15 PM

How did I miss this survey? Wanted to vote for Sarah.

indypat on June 2, 2011 at 1:30 PM

Didn’t Perry sign a law for manditory vaccination of young girls for that herpes virus or something.

Wow, if that’s the worst thing the guy did I’d vote for him in a second!

humdinger on June 2, 2011 at 2:29 PM

PPP poll today shows Palin and Romney tied nationally with Palin far more favorable among young Republicans: http://poorrichardsnews.com/post/6113502507/ppp-national-poll-palin-and-romney-tied-palin-more

poorrichardsnews on June 2, 2011 at 2:46 PM

Am I missing something? Looks to me like Rand Paul lost far, far fewer votes than some of the people listed on the graphs, but he isn’t included there. Nor are his numbers listed in the percentage/total column. Surely he had at least SOME votes, no? Or was he not included in the most recent poll?

RachDubya on June 2, 2011 at 4:19 PM

I also enjoyed how HA skipped the Palin/Trump pizza photo op.

It shows what Palin is all about, that’s why. Just putting on a show.

Moesart on June 2, 2011 at 1:15 PM

The meeting was likely all about gaining assurances that Trump won’t run as an independent if she gets the nomination.

steebo77 on June 2, 2011 at 4:25 PM

RachDubya on June 2, 2011 at 4:19 PM

To add, if he lost less than Gingrich did, and Gingrich is still listed in the percentiles, then Rand must not have been included. Odd.

RachDubya on June 2, 2011 at 4:44 PM

Looks to me like Rand Paul lost far, far fewer votes than some of the people listed on the graphs, but he isn’t included there. Nor are his numbers listed in the percentage/total column. Surely he had at least SOME votes, no? Or was he not included in the most recent poll?

Rand is not included. The assumption is that he will not run against his dad.

Y-not on June 2, 2011 at 6:29 PM

This post has been promoted to HotAir.com.

Comments have been closed on this post but the discussion continues here.

Allahpundit on June 2, 2011 at 11:47 PM

Comment pages: 1 2