Green Room

GAB asks for another week for Wisconsin Senate Dem recalls

posted at 9:00 am on June 2, 2011 by

I should be getting sleep for another big day of fishing, but instead, I’m abusing my iPod Touch, my fat fingers and the lodge’s WiFi to punch this one out. There probably will be typos as a result.

In case you missed the front-page post from AP on Tuesday, the Government Accountability Board certified the recalll petitions against Republican state Senators Shelia Harsdorf, Alberta Darling and Robert Cowles, who now join fellow Republican Senators Dan Kapanke, Luther Olsen and Randy Hopper on the.certified recall list, while leaving the fate of the recall petitions against Democrat Senators Jim Holperin, Bob Wirch and Dave Hansen undecided. The GAB bad been under a Friday deadline to determine sufficiency of all 9 petitions and, if they were sufficient, order recall elections.

Yesterday, the GAB asked for a 1-week extension for the 3 Dem petitions. That hearing will be held at 1:30 pm on Friday. Further, the GAB plans on meeting sometime during that week to decide the fate of the petitions against the Democrats.

The court petition, available on WisPolitics, has a couple of interesting items in it.  First, the GAB claims it did all the recalls against Republicans first because the challenges were similar, even though the ones against Darling and Cowles were filed after the petitions against the Democrats.

Second, none of the elections against the Republicans were ordered as of Wednesday morning.  This may yet result in all 9 happening on the same day, specifically July 19, the date the 6 against the Republicans will occur, as the 6-week (plus the days to the follilowing Tuesday if it isn’t already Tuesday) clock starts on the day the election is ordered, not when the petition is certified.  If the GAB meets on either Monday or Tuesday, that 1-day “Mega-Recall” (or at least primaries) is still possible.

Also from the WisPolitics story, attorneys for Kapanke, Olsen and Cowlea filed challenges to the certifications.  I doubt they’ll go anywhere even if the court ignores the lateness; they had 7 days starting on 5/24 to file the challenge, which would have been Memorial Day.

As for the net result, I still don’t see more than 2 Republicams losing their seats, which would not be enough to give the Democrats the majority.  If the recalls against the Democrats proceed, I expect at least 2 of them to also lose.  If they end up held on different days, I agree with AP that
conservative anger will cause all 3 Democrats to lose.

The Republicans would get the 20-13 supermajority needed to move on fiscal issues without a single Democrat present if they havea net gain of 1, while the Democrats need a net gain of 3 to take control of the Senate until at least thia time nexr year.

One more thing; whoever survivea the recall election cannot be recalled again until January 2014 assuming he/she is reelected in 2012.

See you Saturday.

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Comments

That’s a lot of game playing you have going on in Wisconsin.

Cindy Munford on June 2, 2011 at 1:29 PM

Kloppy seconds…

Roy Rogers on June 2, 2011 at 1:38 PM

Thanks Steve. Now go out and fish.

WarEagle01 on June 2, 2011 at 1:40 PM

I can see all three dems going down, although Wirch in Kenosha will be the hardest to beat. I would be extremely surprised if Holperin survives a recall election – his rural district is just too conservative.

On our side, I unfortunately can’t see Kapanke pulling it off. La Crosse is really liberal and they’ll be fired up. Fortunately he might be able to try for the congressional seat again and his chances will be improved if Kind goes for the Senate.

Sheila Harsdorf should win; the Twin Cities exurbs are quite conservative. Same with Darling in the Milwaukee burbs although her district contains some rich liberal towns that could make it uncomfortably close.

I don’t know much about Cowles’ district although I’m assuming he can hold on in Shawano and the Green Bay burbs.

Olson and Hopper are the tossups. Hopper’s Fond du Lac and Oshkosh district contains a few state institutions and could definitely recall him although there are some quite conservative areas in his district too. Olson’s district spans a large amount rural area in the middle of the state and could easily go either way. Unfortunately it includes some of the far reaches of the Madison metro area, such as Wisconsin Dells and Portage, and they’ll be fired up to get rid of him. Hopefully his conservative base further north turns out heavily for him.

This will definitely be interesting.

Nelsen on June 2, 2011 at 2:00 PM

Let’s hope it works out. Check out this video of Kim Simac, declared candidate against Holperin and organizer of the recall petition drive. She’s going to be a rock star. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Snd_1EC4TQ

MatthiasReynolds on June 2, 2011 at 2:11 PM

If the recalls against the Democrats proceed, I expect at least 2 of them to also lose.

Highlighted is the money quote, the Dems know putting up any of the three Dems for recall will render futile their hopes of regaining the Senate hence the GAB shenanigans…

Do not be surprised if the GAB ends up tossing out all the recall petitions for the Dems.

TheRightMan on June 2, 2011 at 2:22 PM

Sheila Harsdorf should win; the Twin Cities exurbs are quite conservative.

I drove through Harsdorf territory yesterday. If the area from River Falls up to Houlton is any indication she’s pretty safe. Even down near River Falls there were nearly no Moore signs while Harsdorf signs abounded. Given that River Falls and its students/university are critical for Moore to succeed scheduling the vote in July is bad for Moore.

nerdbert on June 2, 2011 at 2:49 PM

Thanks for the update, Steve. I admire your dedication, I would have a hard time not focusing on the important stuff, i.e., fishing. Check your line, tie a good knot, make sure the drag is set right, and land a lunker or two.

novaculus on June 2, 2011 at 2:53 PM

I drove through Harsdorf territory yesterday. If the area from River Falls up to Houlton is any indication she’s pretty safe. Even down near River Falls there were nearly no Moore signs while Harsdorf signs abounded. Given that River Falls and its students/university are critical for Moore to succeed scheduling the vote in July is bad for Moore.

nerdbert on June 2, 2011 at 2:49 PM

The big problem for Harsdorf is Menominee. UW Stout is there and they’ll be gunning to get recall her. Luckily school isn’t in session. UW River Falls is also in her district, but that UW isn’t as big as Stout and River Falls is Harsdorf’s hometown so that kind of evens things out there. St Croix County along 94 from Spring Valley through Baldwin to Hudson and Somerset is blood red. New Richmond, Osceola, and Prescott are pretty 50/50. Most of her district is basically the eastward expansion of Michelle Bachmann’s district so she should be fine.

Menominee is the one big blue spot in her district. Her district was actually the fastest growing in WI over the last decade and needs to shed ~50,000 voters in redistricting for the next election so Menominee is likely to soon be axed. Unfortunately she can’t worry about that now.

Nelsen on June 2, 2011 at 4:02 PM

*Correction it’s 25,000, not 50,000. I thought that was a large number.

Nelsen on June 2, 2011 at 4:15 PM

A couple updates from Reid Magney of the GAB:

– The proper term for the recalls against the Pubbies is that they’re sufficient, not certified.

– Those elections will happen 7/12 pending successful court challenges.

Steve Eggleston on June 2, 2011 at 6:33 PM


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