First look – Who might run for Herb Kohl’s Senate seat in Wisconsin

posted at 11:35 am on May 13, 2011 by Steve Eggleston

In case you missed both the headline and the front page post, the senior Senator from Wisconsin, Herb Kohl (D-Milwaukee) will announce later today that he is retiring from the Senate. That leaves things wide open for both parties, at least in theory. Here’s my quick, off-the-top-of-my-head assessment of the potential candidates:

First, on the Democrat side:

• The prohibitive favorite is former Senator Russ Feingold. He matches the current disposition of the Democrat Party of Wisconsin (i.e. extremely liberal), and his supporters were literally calling for him to run for this seat the second he conceded to Senator Ron Johnson (R-Oshkosh) back in November. The only question is if he would do three statewide campaigns in 2 years; his name is also being heavily floated as the Democrat challenger to governor Scott Walker if a recall election is forced for that seat early next year.
• Congressman Ron Kind (D-La Crosse) also apparently is on the short list. He is considered a “moderate” (though I use that term loosely), is telegenic, and has the advantage of a ballot-friendly last name. He even survived the 2010 Republican tsunami in relatively good order, though up until near the end of the campaign, he was actually considered to be in a safe seat. However, he already demurred from one statewide campaign (the 2010 gubernatorial), and that “moderate” tag isn’t exactly in vogue with those who vote in Democrat primaries.
• A long shot, at least if Feingold runs, is Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison). As she is even further to the left than Feingold, she is unlikely to win any “general electability” contests.

On the Republican side:

• Former Congressman (and gubernatorial candidate) Mark Neumann has made no secret in Republican circles that he would run in 2012 even if Herb Kohl was running for re-election. His big problem is he has high negatives among both Republicans (stemming from the 2010 gubernatorial campaign) and “moderates” (as he is quite conservative). Indeed, Feingold (as the incumbent) barely beat him in 1998.
• Another name in the short list is Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen. His biggest claim to fame was taking the Attorney General’s seat in 2006 from the Democrats, the only Republican to take a major statewide or Congressional seat held by the Democrats that year.
• Former Senatorial candidate Tim Michels is also rumored to be interested after replenishing his personal fortune. The problem is, after he pulled off the upset of favored establishment candidate Russ Darrow (and a few others) in the 2004 primary, the entire Republican party apparatus abandoned the race and he was crushed by Feingold.
• Everybody is asking about Paul Ryan. The question is whether he is willing to give up a safe (at least for him) seat and the House Budget Committee chairmanship to run against the guy he succeeded in Congress (Neumann) in a primary and then (if he wins) likely against fellow Janesville native Feingold.
• Former governor Tommy Thompson’s name will be tossed around, but the same things that led him to not run for governor in 2010 will likely lead him to not run for Seante.

Revisions/extensions (12:42 pm, I think, 5/13/2011) - A spokesman for Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald (R-Horicon) said (via WTMJ-AM’s Charlie Sykes’ Twitter account), “If Paul Ryan isn’t in, he would definitely consider it.” Despite becoming Speaker after the Republican tsunami, and being Assembly Minority Leader (note the lack of scare quotes) prior to that, Fitzgerald is still rather unknown to much of Wisconsin, and the Left has been busy trying to make him (and his brother, Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald) the lead part of “FitzWalkerStan”.

R&E part 2 (1:19 pm 5/13/2011) - This one is pure speculation on my part since he’s been out of the political realm since 2006, first as Ambassador to Tanzania and then, since the change of administrations, involved of an outfit called Malaria No More, but former Republican Congressman/Ambassador Mark Green would be an interesting choice. The only bad mark is that he was defeated by Jim Doyle in the 2006 gubernatorial election (after Doyle got the former State Elections Board to break with recent past tradition and disallow the use of his federal campaign funds in that race).

R&E part 3 (2:50 pm 5/13/2011) - WTMJ-AM’s Erik Bilstad got a few more names out of Democrat Party of Wisconsin chair Mike Tate – Kathleen Falk, Tom Barrett and Kevin Conroy.

Falk, who until she suddenly retired earlier this year, was the Dane County Executive. She finished third out of three in the 2002 Democrat gubernatorial primary, and, after ousting then-Attorney General Peg Lautenschlager in the 2006 Democrat AG primary, was the only Democrat to lose the aforementioned major statewide/Congressional seat held by the Dems in that election.

Barrett, Milwaukee’s mayor since a couple years after he departed Congress following the census-forced downsizing of the delegation in 2002, has a couple statewide losses under his belt – he finished second in the aforementioned 2002 Democrat gubernatorial primary, and he lost to Governor Scott Walker in November.

Conroy, the CEO of Exact Sciences (a colorectal cancer research firm), toyed with the idea of running for governor as a Democrat in 2010. Beyond that, I don’t know much about him.

R&E part 4 (12:05 am 5/14/2011, though it’s a bit of a pain to remember to convert this to Eastern) - There’s been a couple more names floated on the Republican side:

- Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald (R-Juneau). Even though he’s a Senator, he’s arguably the more conservative of the Fitzgerald brothers. Further, unlike Jeff, he would not need to give up his current seat to run for the US Senate.

- Former Senator Ted Kanavas (R-Brookfield). He has name recognition in the largest media market, but is an unknown outstate. Further, he already got rid of most of his campaign money.

Speaking of those who would have to choose between running for re-election to their current seat and the Senate, the following people on this list would need to make that choice – Kind, Baldwin, Ryan, and Jeff Fitzgerald.

R&E part 5 (1:15 am 5/14/2011) - I know there’s a name I “forgot”, Dave Westlake. He’s a good guy, but unless one of two things happens – he gets a competent statewide campaign going or there are just so many people in the Republican side of the race that 15% might win it – he will do no better than he did in 2010. With that said, he did light the fires for the largest of the counter-rallys in Madison a couple months ago.

Blowback