Green Room

March Primary Survey Results

posted at 11:33 am on March 9, 2011 by

For a third survey in a row, Sarah Palin tops the Hot Air charts, garnering 34% of the readership’s vote. Palin leads a pack consisting of Chris Christie (who for a third survey came in second) at 14%, Herman Cain at 9%, Tim Pawlenty at 7%, and Mitt Romney. Notably, Romney has finished fifth in every survey, and in every survey regardless of sample size, has received 6% of the vote.

Here’s the chart of all the Primary votes so far, starting from the first one we did in November, by percentage of the vote.

For Vice President, Rep. Allen West leads the pack at 22%, followed by Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, Herman Cain, and Michele Bachmann. West’s positioning is strongly correlated to Sarah Palin-related votes as her most favored running mate; as Palin voters go up, so too do VP West votes. The VP chart over time:

Top second choice for President? Chris Christie.

Top vote loser? For a second survey, Sarah Palin.

Demographics of this survey:

Nearly 700 people indicated that they did not comment at Hot Air, but “would like to!” For those that have provided email addresses, I’ll try to give you the heads up if I have forewarning as to when registration opens. Regardless, I’ve passed along your interest to the guys upstairs.

Two quick, final points.

It’s important to start winnowing down the candidate pool we’ve got presently. Chris Christie and Paul Ryan will be removed from the topline survey question next month if they don’t indicate a reasonable interest to run; there’s no sense in keeping candidates in the first-choice President question who’ve said they absolutely won’t do it. Gotta move on, as disappointing as it might be. Demint may also go.

Once the pool is winnowed, the next step is working out when and how candidates will exit the field. Like I indicated when I was predicting House outcomes, predicting nationwide outcomes can be a lot trickier if we just gloss over local circumstances. With the surveys we’ve been doing at Hot Air, we’re gathering lots of valuable knowledge as to these local circumstances; I’m looking forward to matching those circumstances up with the primary calendar, once it crystallizes.

I’ll toss out the first few months of last cycle’s calendar, per About.com, for your perusal as a rough sketch of what next year’s calendar might look like. I look forward to your thoughts in the comments, and at my Twitter.

JANUARY 2008
January 3: Iowa (caucuses)
January 5: Wyoming (GOP caucuses)
January 8: New Hampshire (primary)
January 15: Michigan
January 19: Nevada (precinct caucuses), South Carolina (R primary)
January 26: South Carolina (D primary)
January 29: Florida
FEBRUARY 2008
February 1: Maine (R)
February 5: Alabama, Alaska (caucuses), Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (caucuses), Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (D caucuses), Illinois, Kansas (D caucuses), Massachusetts, Minnesota (caucuses), Missouri, Montana (R caucuses), New Jersey, New Mexico (D), New York, North Dakota (caucuses), Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, American Samoa (caucuses)
February 9: Louisiana, Kansas (R), Nebraska (D caucuses), Washington (D&R caucuses)
February 10: Maine (D caucuses)
February 12: District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia
February 19: Hawaii (D), Washington (R primary), Wisconsin
MARCH 2008
March 4: Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont
March 8: Wyoming (D)
March 11: Mississippi
APRIL 2008
April 22: Pennsylvania

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Comments

Yeoman’s work, Patrick. It will be fun to see how things shake out between now and Fall ’11.

gryphon202 on March 9, 2011 at 12:15 PM

Thanks Patrick for these polls. They are very informative. Looking forward to more later on.
L

letget on March 9, 2011 at 12:27 PM

Thanks Patrick and a good showing for Pawlenty!

IR-MN on March 9, 2011 at 12:42 PM

Interesting age demographics. I had no idea the readership here was so tilted toward the, er, wise side of the spectrum.

David Shane on March 9, 2011 at 12:43 PM

Interesting age demographics. I had no idea the readership here was so tilted toward the, er, wise side of the spectrum.

David Shane on March 9, 2011 at 12:43 PM

Heh, well the divider age-wise is about 50, with half of respondents on either side of that line. I’m not sure how that compares to other political websites.

Patrick Ishmael on March 9, 2011 at 12:56 PM

Thanks for doing this, Patrick. It’s fascinating to see how the dynamics work.

NTWR on March 9, 2011 at 1:13 PM

Shouldn’t this be on the main page? I guessing it’ll be moved later this evening.

darwin on March 9, 2011 at 4:07 PM

This post has been promoted to HotAir.com.

Comments have been closed on this post but the discussion continues here.

Allahpundit on March 9, 2011 at 9:29 PM