Green Room

The Post-Election House scorecard

posted at 10:43 pm on November 3, 2010 by

What a night to be a Republican.

Below is the cheat sheet I posted Sunday, re-sorted from what I thought was most likely to flip to the GOP, to least likely, and updated with wins and losses. To summarize, I predicted that Republicans would gain a net of 63 seats, +/-3; by my count, Republicans have won 66 seats, have lost three, and may nab two more Democrat-held seats that are currently too-close-to-call (“2C2C”). So, 63 seats, with two potentially waiting in the wings. Analysis follows.

Republicans outperformed my predictions in Illinois, Texas, and Minnesota; they underperformed in Arizona, Kentucky, Oregon, and Georgia. So, a slight update is in order to accurately describe today’s state-by-state House delegation gains and losses, as compared to 2004. We’ve moved from this net outcome possibility: (red- net GOP gain over 2004, blue- net GOP loss, gray – no change)

To this:

The wins are still deep, and still likely to be enduring (as I’ve argued before.) Strong wins across the board, with lots of welcome surprises not demonstrated in this map. (For instance, Illinois now has a majority GOP delegation. Arizona’s delegation is now by my count five Republicans to three Democrats. Etc.) Depending on how the House race in CA-11 turns out, even California could turn a redder hue before this year’s map is complete.

The Republicans may not have done as well as we’d hoped in the Senate, but it’s these races in the House and those at the state level that are really the most destructive for Democrats. From Allahpundit’s post, a House Democrat close to Madam (for now) Speaker:

“I think it’s going to take us a while to get beyond this,” said a House Democrat close to Pelosi. “10 years, maybe 20 years. I don’t know if we’ll get back the majority while I’m here.”…

When the toll inflicted on Democrats in a state legislature is best described as a “bloodbath,” yes, there’s long term damage involved here. Erick Erickson notes:

There will be 18 states subject to reapportionment. The Republicans will control a majority of those — at least ten and maybe a dozen or more. More significantly, a minimum of seventeen state legislative houses have flipped to the Republican Party.

The North Carolina Legislature is Republican for the first time since 1870. Yes, that is Eighteen Seventy.

The Alabama Legislature is Republican for the first time since 1876.

For those saying this is nothing because it is the South, consider these:

The entire Wisconsin and New Hampshire legislatures have flipped to the GOP by wide margins.

The State Houses in Indiana, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, Montana, and Colorado flipped to the GOP.

The Maine and Minnesota Senates flipped to the GOP.

Go to the link for the rest.

Can Republicans mess this windfall up? Sure. Do I assume they will? No. I think it is clear that Democrats have emerged as an urban, bi-coastal regional party whose influence has been decimated in the interior, and which will soon to be subjected to more damage when Census reapportionment and redistricting begins. The Blue Dogs have been vanquished. The San Francisco-style Democrat has prevailed, resulting in a Democrat caucus probably more liberal and narrow than it ever has been. A New York Times screenshot of the current House landscape helps to re-emphasize this point.

The Democratic Party is not dead and should not be taken lightly. It is undoubtedly alive. It’s just not altogether “well,” and probably won’t be for some time.

Update: So how many legislatures does the GOP control outright? Click here or the image for the breakdown.

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Comments

It’s possible to drive from coast to coast without passing through a congressional district represented by a Democrat. In fact, if you start in Southern California and drive to northern Florida, it’s a pretty direct route.

Steven Den Beste on November 4, 2010 at 1:06 AM

2012 will be another “blood bath” and that map will become much more blood red.

IowaWoman on November 4, 2010 at 2:43 AM

2012 will be another “blood bath” and that map will become much more blood red.

IowaWoman on November 4, 2010 at 2:43 AM

Let’s not get overconfident.

A) We must clean up the rampant fraud in elections.
B) Hold the Reps feet to the fire.
C) Sound spending and realistic budgets.
D) Use the power of the purse wisely.

NaCly dog on November 4, 2010 at 9:10 AM

Congrats Patrick! You were more accurate than Nate Silver. Do you plan on become the right’s fivethirtyeight? We can use it–sean trende and jay cost (who was wrong) is all we have. That Jim at NRO is awful. BTW how does your system work; is it proprietary like Silver’s?

TimTebowSavesAmerica on November 4, 2010 at 11:38 AM

Patrick,

I’d like to add my congratulations. I thought your numbers were a little low but I was wrong in most cases.

I did think Cravaack had a much better chance than you gave him, though. Boy that win was sweet.

Missy on November 4, 2010 at 1:37 PM

Ortiz in Texas CD 27 has yet to concede after losing by 799 votes and is lawyering up. Looks like there will be a recount.

manofaiki on November 4, 2010 at 5:40 PM

Awesome. Great job, Patrick.

amerpundit on November 4, 2010 at 5:40 PM

Congratulations!

Your crystal ball is awesome.

What does it say for ’12?

portlandon on November 4, 2010 at 5:41 PM

As someone who’s not from the US, it seems to me that NC has somewhat resisted the wave. Any thoughts to any strategy with VA and NC with respect to the next Presidential election? CO, NM and AZ look bluer than in the past as well. What’s the winning combination for the next Presidential candidate?

MrX on November 4, 2010 at 5:49 PM

Andy Levy called 63 on Red Eye…

LurkerDood on November 4, 2010 at 5:50 PM

Thanks a great job Patrick.

The state legislature takeover is awesome.

darwin on November 4, 2010 at 5:56 PM

I predicted 63 too. I just forgot to tell anyone =|

Great post 😉

Ugly on November 4, 2010 at 6:08 PM

Patrick, awesome post!
Those maps are stunning…but in a good way!
I’m finally ready to do that post-election happy dance the MSM told me not to do.
Cue Glenn Beck’s show yesterday with Pat Gray’s maniacal laughter!

Jenfidel on November 4, 2010 at 6:09 PM

Since we are calling it, I called Angle dropping the football as she was about to cross the goal line right here on HA. She celebrated a little too early.

WoosterOh on November 4, 2010 at 7:07 PM

Nate Silver, meet your match. Well Done.

angryed on November 4, 2010 at 7:12 PM

Your probability estimates were excellent. As I posted in the comments under the original when about 1/3 of the results were in, the overall cutoff between GOP and Dem holds if you ordered them by probability was at the 47% mark. Taking that into account it was obvious that the final tally would be 65-70 seats.

Gaunilon on November 4, 2010 at 7:39 PM

Great job. I could have helped you out on the GA calls. We lost in Cynthia McKinney terrority. It went exactly as I expected. I hope you continue to do this, maybe as HA’s resident pollster??

di butler on November 4, 2010 at 8:09 PM

Congrats Patrick, great calls.

But I picked the Giants to win the WS this year…….(forty years ago)

Rovin on November 4, 2010 at 11:19 PM

This post has been promoted to HotAir.com.

Comments have been closed on this post but the discussion continues here.

Ed Morrissey on November 6, 2010 at 3:51 PM


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