It’s not backlash, you know…
posted at 10:23 pm on November 1, 2010 by Steven Den Beste
But there’s also one other thing: the backlash against Obama probably isn’t all that strong to begin with. As I mentioned on Friday, basic structural factors suggest a Democratic loss of 45 seats in the House this year. If Democrats instead lose 55, that’s evidence of a backlash, but not actually a very big one. It means that we’re still fundamentally the 50-50 nation we all talked about so much after the 2000 election, and a small shift among a small number of voters makes a big difference. It’s true that voters are frustrated and tired, but I think it’s a mistake to allow TV shoutfests to exaggerate just how frustrated and tired they really are.
Some now are predicting as much as 70 House seats going to the Republicans. If that happens, it will be very interesting to see just what kind of explanation Kevin hauls out to prove that, despite it all, it still wasn’t a backlash against Obama.
Because, of course, it won’t be. A priori there can be no such thing, because as all good Progressives know, there’s an emerging permanent Progressive majority.