Green Room

Game Time: Final House rankings and printable cheat sheet

posted at 3:47 pm on October 31, 2010 by

The die has been cast, and this is what the final roll has turned up. I’ve organized our final list by state and poll closing time, so as the night progresses you’ll see exactly how the election’s shaping up. Races ranked 1-2-3… etc. are the most likely to flip; races in the 100s, least likely. You may have to subtract four-ish seats from the total here, depending on the number of GOP seats that flip to Democrats. Once you hit the 43 or so seat mark, though, that should be the ballgame.

To sum, Republicans need a net 39 seats to claim a majority, so if we see a bunch of seats in the 40s and 50s going our way, we should be in great shape. Deeper wins, even better. A bunch of losses in seats ranked in the 30s or below, and we may have to hold on to our hats, because it’s going to be a late night. My final prediction: 63 seats, +/- 3 seats. Nate Silver is predicting 53-54 seats on average, with Republicans favored in 59 contests. Your collective Midterm Challenge Prediction: ~70.

All times are Eastern.

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Thanks, Patrick, this is awesome. I will definitely print it out and cross off names on Tuesday. Can’t wait to get Barone’s take as the night wears on, too.

Thank you also for listing the FL polls as closing at 8pm EST instead of 7pm EST like Nate Silver did (he acknowledged “most” would be closed by 7, but I’m hoping no FL races will be called by any network until after 8).

Missy on October 31, 2010 at 4:16 PM

Great, I live in the one district that has a GOP percent to take of zero. Still, I’ll go out and vote against Kaptur.

rbj on October 31, 2010 at 4:17 PM

Gads, we are going to be up late Nov.2 into Nov.3 for the results! I will do my best to stay awake for the results.
Thanks for the sheet Patrick.
L

letget on October 31, 2010 at 4:32 PM

BTW I would rate the GOP’s chances to take TX-25 as higher than 7%. This is my district. Doggett is of course heavily favored, but he’s had to fight harder this year than at any time since we was first elected. The Austin exurbs (which went for McCain) have exploded in recent years. If the Austin prog turnout is low, I think Campbell has a shot. Certainly a better than 7% shot.

Missy on October 31, 2010 at 4:32 PM

missy@4:32,
Your guy has a better chance than mine in TX-27, sorry to say. Good luck to all ours and Perry also. We already voted.
L

letget on October 31, 2010 at 4:41 PM

Shouldn’t you wait for tomorrow’s rasmussen and gallup numbers?

TimTebowSavesAmerica on October 31, 2010 at 5:27 PM

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Comments have been closed on this post but the discussion continues here.

Allahpundit on October 31, 2010 at 9:57 PM

Shouldn’t you wait for tomorrow’s rasmussen and gallup numbers?

TimTebowSavesAmerica on October 31, 2010 at 5:27 PM

It’d be informative, but the generic ballot doesn’t really affect the model I have here. If you’re looking for a model based on the generic vote, try here. Interestingly, the results of each method are pretty similar to one another.

Patrick Ishmael on October 31, 2010 at 6:07 PM