Brief update: 10 days, 35 House Democrat downgrades

posted at 11:45 am on August 23, 2010 by

It keeps getting worse for Democrats. Three of four House experts updated their predictions since my last rankings post, and it’s almost entirely in the wrong direction for the majority party.

Three upgrades, 35 downgrades. That’s the largest single round of downgrades so far for this election season, all occurring within about a third of my typical survey period. The results, from biggest downgrade to biggest upgrade (Press CTRL-F to search):

District Dem incumbent Change
GA-8 Jim Marshall -0.8
NY-29 OPEN -0.6
LA-3 OPEN (Melancon) -0.4
SD-AL Stephanie Herseth Sandlin -0.4
OH-16 John Boccieri -0.4
WI-7 OPEN -0.4
IL-11 Debbie Halvorson -0.4
PA-10 Chris Carney -0.4
PA-8 Patrick Murphy -0.4
NY-20 Scott Murphy -0.4
TN-4 Lincoln Davis -0.4
AR-2 OPEN (Snyder) -0.2
KS-3 OPEN (Moore) -0.2
TX-17 Chet Edwards -0.2
AL-2 Bobby Bright -0.2
AR-1 OPEN (Berry) -0.2
IN-9 Baron Hill -0.2
SC-5 John Spratt -0.2
WA-3 OPEN (Baird) -0.2
FL-2 Allen Boyd -0.2
IL-14 Bill Foster -0.2
AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick -0.2
AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords -0.2
PA-3 Kathy Dahlkemper -0.2
IA-3 Leonard Boswell -0.2
IN-2 Joe Donnelly -0.2
OH-13 Betty Sutton -0.2
OR-5 Kurt Schrader -0.2
WV-3 Nick Rahall -0.2
NY-25 Dan Maffei -0.2
NC-7 Mike McIntyre -0.2
CA-47 Loretta Sánchez -0.2
GA-2 Sanford Bishop, Jr. -0.2
WA-2 Rick Larsen -0.2
OR-1 David Wu -0.2
CT-5 Christopher Murphy 0.2
GA-12 John Barrow 0.2
CT-4 Jim Himes 0.4

Among the races that Hot Air readers have mentioned in the last few posts but were not included in recent rankings is the MO-3 race (105th most vulnerable), pitting incumbent Russ Carnahan against GOP challenger Ed Martin. Jim Geraghty notes that Martin is polling within 10 points of Carnahan, and to me MO-3 should be higher up the list of Democrat vulnerabilities. I’m guessing there’s an information lag at play here; expect some movement in this race’s ranking soon. You can donate to Ed via Paypal here.

The updated top 112:

Ranking District Dem incumbent Score
1 LA-3 OPEN (Melancon) -2.2
2 TN-6 OPEN (Gordon) -2.2
3 NY-29 OPEN -1.6
4 AR-2 OPEN (Snyder) -1.4
5 MD-1 Frank Kratovil -1
6 MS-1 Travis Childers -1
7 IN-8 OPEN (Ellsworth) -0.8
8 KS-3 OPEN (Moore) -0.8
9 ND-AL Earl Pomeroy -0.8
10 NM-2 Harry Teague -0.8
11 TN-8 OPEN (Tanner) -0.8
12 TX-17 Chet Edwards -0.8
13 AL-2 Bobby Bright -0.6
14 CO-4 Betsy Markey -0.6
15 SD-AL Stephanie Herseth Sandlin -0.6
16 AR-1 OPEN (Berry) -0.4
17 IN-9 Baron Hill -0.4
18 NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter -0.4
19 NH-2 OPEN (Hodes) -0.4
20 OH-1 Steve Driehaus -0.4
21 OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy -0.4
22 VA-5 Tom Perriello -0.4
23 WV-1 Alan B. Mollohan -0.4
24 FL-24 Suzanne Kosmas -0.2
25 MI-7 Mark Schauer -0.2
26 NV-3 Dina Titus -0.2
27 OH-16 John Boccieri -0.2
28 PA-7 OPEN (Sestak) -0.2
29 SC-5 John Spratt -0.2
30 VA-2 Glenn Nye -0.2
31 WA-3 OPEN (Baird) -0.2
32 WI-7 OPEN (Obey) -0.2
33 FL-2 Allen Boyd 0
34 FL-8 Alan Grayson 0
35 ID-1 Walter Minnick 0
36 IL-11 Debbie Halvorson 0
37 IL-14 Bill Foster 0
38 MI-1 OPEN (Stupak) 0
39 NC-8 Larry Kissell 0
40 NY-24 Michael Arcuri 0
41 PA-11 Paul Kanjorski 0
42 VA-9 Rick Boucher 0
43 AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick 0.2
44 AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords 0.2
45 MO-4 Ike Skelton 0.2
46 OH-18 Zack Space 0.2
47 PA-10 Chris Carney 0.2
48 PA-3 Kathy Dahlkemper 0.2
49 PA-8 Patrick Murphy 0.2
50 AZ-5 Harry Mitchell 0.4
51 GA-8 Jim Marshall 0.4
52 CA-11 Jerry McNerney 0.6
53 IA-3 Leonard Boswell 0.6
54 KY-6 Ben Chandler 0.6
55 NY-20 Scott Murphy 0.6
56 NY-23 Bill Owens 0.6
57 PA-12 Critz 0.6
58 TN-4 Lincoln Davis 0.6
59 CO-3 John Salazar 0.8
60 IN-2 Joe Donnelly 0.8
61 MA-10 OPEN (Delahunt) 0.8
62 NJ-3 John Adler 0.8
63 NY-1 Tim Bishop 0.8
64 NY-13 Mike McMahon 0.8
65 NY-19 John Hall 0.8
66 VA-11 Gerald Connolly 0.8
67 FL-22 Ron Klein 1
68 NC-11 Heath Shuler 1
69 NM-1 Martin Heinrich 1
70 OH-13 Betty Sutton 1
71 OR-5 Kurt Schrader 1
72 PA-17 Tim Holden 1
73 PA-4 Jason Altmire 1
74 TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez 1
75 WI-8 Steve Kagen 1
76 WV-3 Nick Rahall 1
77 MI-9 Gary Peters 1.2
78 NY-25 Dan Maffei 1.4
79 UT-2 Matheson 1.4
80 AR-4 Mike Ross 1.6
81 CT-5 Christopher Murphy 1.6
82 IL-8 Melissa Bean 1.6
83 MN-1 Tim Walz 1.6
84 MS-4 Taylor 1.6
85 NC-2 Etheridge 1.6
86 NC-7 Mike McIntyre 1.6
87 OK-2 Boren 1.6
88 WI-3 Ron Kind 1.6
89 CA-18 Dennis Cardoza 1.8
90 CA-47 Loretta Sánchez 1.8
91 CT-4 Jim Himes 1.8
92 GA-2 Sanford Bishop, Jr. 1.8
93 KY-3 John Yarmuth 1.8
94 WA-2 Rick Larsen 1.8
95 CO-7 Ed Perlmutter 2
96 GA-12 John Barrow 2
97 IL-17 Hare 2
98 NJ-12 Rush Holt 2
99 OH-6 Charlie Wilson 2
100 CA-20 Jim Costa 2.2
101 IA-2 Loebsack 2.2
102 OR-1 David Wu 2.2
103 TX-27 Ortiz 2.2
104 IA-1 Bruce Braley 2.4
105 MO-3 Russ Carnahan 2.4
106 RI-1 Kennedy 2.4
107 WA-9 Smith 2.4
108 MA-6 Tierney 2.6
109 ME-1 Pingree 2.6
110 NM-3 Lujan 2.6
111 NJ-6 Pallone 2.8
112 CA-39 Sanchez 3

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Comments

Based on this I’m going with 70 seats for the GOP.

rockmom on August 23, 2010 at 11:50 AM

Rats. Looks like Marcy Kaptur is still safe against Rich Iott here in Toledo.

rbj on August 23, 2010 at 11:58 AM

NC-7 Mike McIntyre -0.2

Go Pantano..we have some great events planned, and I am well integrated into the business community. They are hesitant because they are “business” people so they play it close…but behind closed doors, McIntyre is well liked, but he is a democrat and it is time to make that change.
Pantano will win, it will be close, but McIntyre was considered untouchable just six months ago.
This from a district that for 140 years has been democrat.

right2bright on August 23, 2010 at 12:37 PM

Oh gosh, ortiz TX 27 is 2.2! I sure hope this changes and we get someone else in. I doubt it, the ‘name’ is what gets him elected every time.
L

letget on August 23, 2010 at 12:42 PM

Turnout will be huge in this election cycle, pray the numbers arent close or some ‘unusual’ circumstances will begin rearing their heads, and hopefully- the R’s learned their lesson and not play nice.

TheVer on August 23, 2010 at 12:44 PM

Wow … What’s even better is they’re caught between a rock and a hard place. They can’t crow about any legislation they passed because everyone hates it so they’re left with Boooooooooooooooooosh!

darwin on August 23, 2010 at 12:45 PM

Folks, DO NOT expect that you can just stay home and let other voters do the job for you. DO NOT let your vote go to waste. Even if you’re certain the Democrat will lose in your district, get out there and pile on. Add your vote to show them just how completely they’ve been rejected.

I don’t just want to win. I want them humiliated and distraught, crying in the streets, their wretched liberal voices caterwauling their last gasps with accusations of incivility and racism. It’s up to us to make sure they learn a hard lesson about what is acceptable to the American electorate.

I don’t want a single vote wasted on a faux “conservative” Democrat, on a third party candidate, or on some B.S. conservative principle that keeps you from voting Republican. Make it count. Make it hurt. Get out and vote, folks, do NOT stay home, no matter how sure it may seem.

Caiwyn on August 23, 2010 at 1:01 PM

Great post, Caiwyn. And we each need to drag ten other people to the polls, I might add. We need to make sure everybody we know is registered and has a way to get there on election day. Accept no excuses & drag ‘em out of the house if need be!

Even those of us who live in solid Repub districts cannot miss this vote because ALL our votes will count in the morning-after forensic analysis, when the number of voters turning out nationally to reject the Democrat agenda are counted in aggregate.

And remember, we don’t want to just make this a massive rout for Democrats. We want to make this a nationwide repudiation of the Democrat Party’s shills in the media. We need to make the massacre so relentlessly bloody that Katie Couric cries, everybody at MSNBC sees their careers flash before their eyes, and the CEO’s and marketing executives of CNN’s commercial sponsors start peeing in their pants.

leilani on August 23, 2010 at 1:13 PM

Caiwyn,
If I have to crawl to the polls in Nov. I am going to vote! We do our homework on those running and will do our best to ‘getter done’ to stop the d’s, this bho, and team.
L

letget on August 23, 2010 at 1:14 PM

No prisoners! If there is a D after the name they have to go. In my particular case it’s UT-2 Blue Dog Matheson presently at +1.4 His opponent, Morgan Philpot needs support (read $$).

SaintGeorgeGentile on August 23, 2010 at 1:36 PM

Believe me, I would crawl naked over hot coals and broken glass to get to the polls this November. Duncan Hunter is going to win without a problem, but I’ll still be there to vote against Babs Boxer and every other Democrat on the ballot, down to the public street sweeper and local dog catcher. This has to be a massive rejection of the Democrats, and personally I am going to savor the misery of every denizen of CNN and MSNBC for as long as I can stay awake that night.

hachiban on August 23, 2010 at 1:40 PM

*sniff* *sniff*

I LOVE THE SMELL OF NOVEMBER IN THE MORNING!

Hey Krapovil! Even Maryandlers are rejecting your libtard BS.

Laura in Maryland on August 23, 2010 at 2:20 PM

I,unfortunately,will be playing 1vs.100 here in Dhimmicrapburgh,Pa.Hope we get 10″ of snow-keep as many dhimmis as possible at home.

DDT on August 23, 2010 at 2:26 PM

and many Republican challengers need money. in Va’s 5thCD, the freshman Pelosi-enabler, Perriello, has $2.3 million warchest. Though he is down in polls, that kind of money can get out the vote.

I am very involved in my congressional race. I plan to start calling people 3 days before–just people I know–to remind them. and urge them to call others. this is in addition to the other campaign activities we have planned.

this election falls to each & every one of us.

kelley in virginia on August 23, 2010 at 2:43 PM

Also kelleyinVA, it’d be good idea for Hot Air people (Hot Air Force?) who are Republicans to check with local party offices to see if volunteer poll watchers are still needed in their precincts.

And it goes without saying that everybody MUST remember to bring their flip cams &/or cell phones with them when they go to the polls to document any shenanigans.

leilani on August 23, 2010 at 3:01 PM

That looks like a lot of new lobbyists in DC to me…….

Robert17 on August 23, 2010 at 7:40 PM

Pat, your list is missing CA51. Popaditch WILL unseat Filner! Http://www.popaditchforcongress.com!

JusDreamin on August 24, 2010 at 9:36 AM