NRCC strat: Firm up the gimme seats; DCCC strat: Protect seat #39
posted at 1:02 pm on August 17, 2010 by Patrick Ishmael
After Ed’s post this morning about the NRCC’s latest ad buy, I went back and reviewed this July Politico article detailing the DCCC’s own ad purchase, and compared both to my vulnerable Democrat list. Both sides are targeting 40 seats, so the pick distribution strategies are pretty easy to pick out.
A few conclusions. The NRCC is intent on locking down the most accessible seats first, and then depending on the popular wave to take them over the 39 seat threshold. The DCCC anticipates that this will be a wave election but is intent on making the 39th, majority-losing seat the most difficult one to take by creating a last-gasp, ten seat firewall. Why the NRCC would anticipate a wave and spend a lot of money on seats most susceptible to a wave instead of the wave outliers, or why the DCCC would start its firewall so late in the vulnerability list, are a bit beyond me.
In sum: The NRCC is on offense. It just isn’t, for whatever the reason, being very aggressive. Full list of NRCC/DCCC support follows: