Green Room

NRCC strat: Firm up the gimme seats; DCCC strat: Protect seat #39

posted at 1:02 pm on August 17, 2010 by

After Ed’s post this morning about the NRCC’s latest ad buy, I went back and reviewed this July Politico article detailing the DCCC’s own ad purchase, and compared both to my vulnerable Democrat list. Both sides are targeting 40 seats, so the pick distribution strategies are pretty easy to pick out.

The highlights:

A few conclusions. The NRCC is intent on locking down the most accessible seats first, and then depending on the popular wave to take them over the 39 seat threshold. The DCCC anticipates that this will be a wave election but is intent on making the 39th, majority-losing seat the most difficult one to take by creating a last-gasp, ten seat firewall. Why the NRCC would anticipate a wave and spend a lot of money on seats most susceptible to a wave instead of the wave outliers, or why the DCCC would start its firewall so late in the vulnerability list, are a bit beyond me.

In sum: The NRCC is on offense. It just isn’t, for whatever the reason, being very aggressive. Full list of NRCC/DCCC support follows:

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Comments

Why is the NRCC not being aggressive? I haven’t looked at the data recently, but I would guess that it has to do with funding.

Karl on August 17, 2010 at 1:27 PM

Why is the NRCC not being aggressive? I haven’t looked at the data recently, but I would guess that it has to do with funding.

Karl on August 17, 2010 at 1:27 PM

That’d explain it only partially. DCCC announced it was spending $28 million on 40 races; NRCC announced it was spending $22 million on 40 races. $6 million is real money, but that wouldn’t seem to me to be defining as to what sort of strategy the NRCC could carry out. Seems to me everyone’s playing it safe.

(Incidentally, I don’t think the choice of the NRCC to literally match the DCCC in the number of races is coincidental. Very “Annie Get Your Gun.”)

Patrick Ishmael on August 17, 2010 at 1:49 PM

Go donate to Lt. Col. Allen West in Fl-22. This guy just has to get in the congress. He is a star. The RNCC didn’t support him last time and Ron Slime went back to the congress to be Nancy Piglosi’s lap dog. That’s why I refuse to donate to the damn republicans. They only support the RINO’s. And Allah wonders why the repubs are not liked as much as the democrats?

Jayrae on August 17, 2010 at 5:24 PM

Why lock down those ten seats? Probably because the Dems can spend enough money to win almost any one or two seats, and so all must be defended. The faster we get these out of play, the better.

njcommuter on August 17, 2010 at 10:23 PM