Green Room

House update: 37 Democrat seats now a pure toss-up, or worse

posted at 7:33 pm on August 12, 2010 by

My latest update in a series of posts, here and here and here and here and here.

Since April, the experts have made a net downgrade to a total of 48 Democratic seats, while issuing net upgrades for eleven. In April, 30 Democratic seats were considered by my method to be at least a pure toss-up, or “0″; today, there are 37. Given where Democratic seats transition from “getting worse” to “getting at least a little better” on the historical chart — which constitutes a sort of inflection point to me — my gut tells me we’re looking at about a 52 seat pickup: not unlike my previous predictions and analysis, but now with a more solid foundation in the data. We’ll see how big of a wave comes in as the campaign goes forward.

As of today, the top 100 most vulnerable Democratic seats are as follows… is your Congressional seat on the list?

Update: Upon request, I’ve added the list in text form below for easy searching. Just press CTRL-F!

Rank District Dem incumbent
1 TN-6 OPEN (Gordon)
2 LA-3 OPEN (Melancon)
3 AR-2 OPEN (Snyder)
4 MD-1 Frank Kratovil
5 MS-1 Travis Childers
6 NY-29 OPEN
7 IN-8 OPEN (Ellsworth)
8 ND-AL Earl Pomeroy
9 NM-2 Harry Teague
10 TN-8 OPEN (Tanner)
11 CO-4 Betsy Markey
12 KS-3 OPEN (Moore)
13 TX-17 Chet Edwards
14 AL-2 Bobby Bright
15 NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter
16 NH-2 OPEN (Hodes)
17 OH-1 Steve Driehaus
18 OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy
19 VA-5 Tom Perriello
20 WV-1 Alan B. Mollohan
21 AR-1 OPEN (Berry)
22 FL-24 Suzanne Kosmas
23 IN-9 Baron Hill
24 MI-7 Mark Schauer
25 NV-3 Dina Titus
26 PA-7 OPEN (Sestak)
27 SD-AL Stephanie Herseth Sandlin
28 VA-2 Glenn Nye
29 FL-8 Alan Grayson
30 ID-1 Walter Minnick
31 MI-1 OPEN (Stupak)
32 NC-8 Larry Kissell
33 NY-24 Michael Arcuri
34 PA-11 Paul Kanjorski
35 SC-5 John Spratt
36 VA-9 Rick Boucher
37 WA-3 OPEN (Baird)
38 FL-2 Allen Boyd
39 IL-14 Bill Foster
40 MO-4 Ike Skelton
41 OH-16 John Boccieri
42 OH-18 Zack Space
43 WI-7 OPEN
44 AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick
45 AZ-5 Harry Mitchell
46 AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords
47 IL-11 Debbie Halvorson
48 PA-3 Kathy Dahlkemper
49 CA-11 Jerry McNerney
50 KY-6 Ben Chandler
51 NY-23 Bill Owens
52 PA-10 Chris Carney
53 PA-12 Critz
54 PA-8 Patrick Murphy
55 CO-3 John Salazar
56 IA-3 Leonard Boswell
57 MA-10 OPEN (Delahunt)
58 NJ-3 John Adler
59 NY-1 Tim Bishop
60 NY-13 Mike McMahon
61 NY-19 John Hall
62 VA-11 Gerald Connolly
63 FL-22 Ron Klein
64 IN-2 Joe Donnelly
65 NC-11 Heath Shuler
66 NM-1 Martin Heinrich
67 NY-20 Scott Murphy
68 PA-17 Tim Holden
69 PA-4 Jason Altmire
70 TN-4 Lincoln Davis
71 TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez
72 WI-8 Steve Kagen
73 GA-8 Jim Marshall
74 MI-9 Gary Peters
75 OH-13 Betty Sutton
76 OR-5 Kurt Schrader
77 WV-3 Nick Rahall
78 CT-4 Jim Himes
79 CT-5 Christopher Murphy
80 UT-2 Matheson
81 AR-4 Mike Ross
82 IL-8 Melissa Bean
83 MN-1 Tim Walz
84 MS-4 Taylor
85 NC-2 Etheridge
86 NY-25 Dan Maffei
87 OK-2 Boren
88 WI-3 Ron Kind
89 CA-18 Dennis Cardoza
90 GA-12 John Barrow
91 KY-3 John Yarmuth
92 NC-7 Mike McIntyre
93 CA-47 Loretta Sánchez
94 CO-7 Ed Perlmutter
95 GA-2 Sanford Bishop, Jr.
96 IL-17 Hare
97 NJ-12 Rush Holt
98 OH-6 Charlie Wilson
99 WA-2 Rick Larsen
100 CA-20 Jim Costa

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(Images aren’t searchable.)

But it doesn’t look like Russ Carnahan is on the list… yet.

David Shane on August 12, 2010 at 8:16 PM

God I hope you’re right on the 52 seat pickup.(Has a nice ring, doesn’t it?)I have a huuuuuuge bet riding on all this.

And thanks for the work you do on this.

leilani on August 12, 2010 at 8:24 PM

Ooh, I see what you mean about images not being searchable, David Shane. I just tried to see to see if Lloyd Doggett had miraculously appeared on there yet, but we have to scan the list the old-fashioned way with our eyeballs, I guess.

leilani on August 12, 2010 at 8:27 PM

I came in late. Have you definied what “PVIMER” stands for?

Fred 2 on August 12, 2010 at 8:55 PM

I came in late too, but I stopped off and bought the Cliffs Notes. I think PVIMER may be Partisan Voting Index Multiplier Electoral Risk?

Thanks for the searchable update! Doggett’s still not there,though, darnit. We’re cursed, I tell ya.

leilani on August 12, 2010 at 11:00 PM

We may be in situation where the nuclear reactor is beyond the point of adding heat and is self sustaining and …

Perhaps … PERHAPS … there is NO WAY the GOP can muck this up.

This is really coming down to a referendum on Democratic one-party control of Congress and the White House. Yeah, sure … it’s important for the GOP to have some ideas but …

Hell, what am I saying here? No … it’s not important for the GOP to have any ideas. The only thing the people want at this point is to provide some balance to STOP these Socialists from pulling every freedom we have.

So … to that end – every time the Democrats label the GOP as the “Party of ‘NO’” … well – they are reminding Americans exactly why they should vote for the GOP.

HondaV65 on August 12, 2010 at 11:11 PM

YES! Ciro the Zero may yet be retired!

john1schn on August 12, 2010 at 11:13 PM

Yes! Foster (IL-14) is on the list! He keeps hiding from the voters…

Time to send him home, er, to NYC to live with his new wife.

Fallon on August 12, 2010 at 11:15 PM

I’m in Louisiana, and I think Melancon is truly toast. He’s getting hammered with ads about giving Obama an A, going to a trial lawyer convention about how they can make money off of the oil spill victims and something else. I’m already down with Vitter and have been for years, so I don’t pay much attention to it but those two things are the main push and they do grab you when you hear it.

Vitter seems to be pretty solid.

LickyLicky on August 13, 2010 at 12:04 AM

God I hope you’re right on the 52 seat pickup.(Has a nice ring, doesn’t it?)I have a huuuuuuge bet riding on all this.

And thanks for the work you do on this.

leilani on August 12, 2010 at 8:24 PM

Huge alright! The country as we know it! And freedom!

Christian Conservative on August 13, 2010 at 12:36 AM

Thank God.

For the country. Becausr Lord know the ‘Rah-tard’ portion of the base in busy helping Democrats in the Senate.

swamp_yankee on August 13, 2010 at 1:31 AM

Mine’s on there. I told him that if he voted for Obamacare I’d volunteer for his opponent, and have.

Here’s hoping payback’s a b*tch.

nerdbert on August 13, 2010 at 2:12 AM

PALIN = PEROT

I had lunch with a serious DNC guy (known Obama since ’93) who says the REPUBLICANS ARE BLOWING THE BEST CHANCE THEY’VE EVER HAD.

ATTENTION TEA PARTIERS: remember Bill Clinton winning with 41%? That is your future, you dolts.

wordwarp on August 13, 2010 at 3:45 AM

wordwarp on August 13, 2010 at 3:45 AM

Never to worry: Most states have “sore-loser” laws that prevent 3rd-Party runs after you’ve lost your GOP primary for President.

Oh, I’m sorry; you’re thinking someone else is trying the 3rd-Party bit.

BradSchwartze on August 13, 2010 at 4:00 AM

But it doesn’t look like Russ Carnahan is on the list… yet.

I agree. Prince Rusty Carnahan is going down in November. The pitiful combination of Prince Rusty and his sister, Her Highness, Princess Robin Carnahan who is running for the US Senate will focus MO on getting rid of political royalty. Ed Martin is going to destroy Rusty in the debates.

flyoverland on August 13, 2010 at 6:46 AM

PALIN = PEROT

I had lunch with a serious DNC guy (known Obama since ‘93) who says the REPUBLICANS ARE BLOWING THE BEST CHANCE THEY’VE EVER HAD.

ATTENTION TEA PARTIERS: remember Bill Clinton winning with 41%? That is your future, you dolts.

wordwarp on August 13, 2010 at 3:45 AM

When has Palin ever said she’d run as an Indie/3rd Party candidate? You make no sense.

angryed on August 13, 2010 at 7:33 AM

I wish more national attention would be focused on the Ed Martin campaign against Russ Carnahan. It is a fight between a dynamic candidate vs a Beavis/Butthead type candidate. Honestly, Russ looks and behaves like a cartoon character.

http://gatewaypundit.firstthings.com/2010/04/figures-lib-rep-russ-carnahan-parks-unregistered-yacht-on-illinois-side-of-river-to-escape-paying-missouri-taxes/

Check out the photo.

manateespirit on August 13, 2010 at 7:49 AM

I hope we pick up 57 seats..

1 in each of Obama’s states

txdoc on August 13, 2010 at 8:09 AM

my congressidjit, Tom Perriello, 5CD is on the list. He is Catholic, yet voted for Obamacare saying it.did.not.allow. for fed funding of abortions. That is such an easy lie to document.

Perriello is also the congressman who announced on video that “if you don’t tie our hands, we will keep stealing”.

though he has a tremendous opponent, (State Sen. Robert Hurt), Perriello is sitting on tons of cash & OFA (the “volunteer” arm of DNC–can you say SEIU?) has pledged to put boots on the ground for him.

the Dems aren’t going to lose lying down. this is a fight to the bitter end.

kelley in virginia on August 13, 2010 at 8:12 AM

I hope there is a 114 seat pick up by Republicans – 2 in each of Obama’s states.

That still wouldn’t be the record by the way — 130 in 1894.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1894

The similarity revolves around the economy.

WashingtonsWake on August 13, 2010 at 9:31 AM

Lloyd Doggett has as much of a chance of being defeated this fall as does Nancy Pelosi. They both come from extremely left-leaning districts. I’d like to see him go but I’m not holding my breath.

halfastro on August 13, 2010 at 9:38 AM

37 seats aren’t enough! Forty or bust!

Interesting how No. 44 and 46 on the list, Ann Kirkpatrick and Gabrielle Giffords from Arizona, have both been on Fox News telling everyone how they need to secure the border. What would any good Obama-loving Democrat do THAT for? Unless the citizens back home were getting restless…looking for someone with Jan Brewer’s “cojones”.

Doesn’t look good for Connecticut Yankees–CT-5 is just over the hill from me, but Murphy is 79th on the list.

Steve Z on August 13, 2010 at 11:24 AM

There are alot of names that are not on that list that I believe very well may be knocked off as well.

ConservativePartyNow on August 13, 2010 at 11:43 AM

I’m really glad to see Ron Klein (FL-22) and Mike McIntyre (NC-7) on that list. They are about to be replaced by “Jack Bauer Republicans” Ilario Pantano and Allen West!! Hooah!

Redhead Infidel on August 20, 2010 at 8:52 AM